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Top 25 ranking anomaly

Old Coach

New member
Obviously, there have been games played since this week's rankings came out, but I find the positioning of the Big Ten leader interesting. Below is the list of BCS conference leaders and their combined average national ranking (AP/ESPN).

Big East - Syracuse - 1
SEC - Kentucky - 2
ACC - Duke - 4
Big 12 - Kansas - 7
Big 10 - Illinois - 23.5

* In the ESPN poll, there are 6 non-BCS schools ranked ahead of the Big 10 leaders.
 
IMO, Illinois is not the best team in the Big Ten, though they currently sit in 1st place. And I think nearly everyone would agree that the Big Ten is down significantly this year, compared to most other power conferences.
And, 4 Big Ten teams, Ohio State (ranked 6th), Michigan, Michigan State, and Indiana, are ranked higher in both rankings.

Rankings-
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/polls
 
And I think nearly everyone would agree that the Big Ten is down significantly this year, compared to most other power conferences.

Wha?

Everything I've seen says that the Big 10 has the best depth of any conference. They're #1 in CRPI, which isn't the end-all, but they lead by a significant margin. Odds are they'll get more teams in the NCAAs than any other conference (and that includes the BEast).

A couple other conferences may be more top-heavy, though.
 
IMO, Illinois is not the best team in the Big Ten, though they currently sit in 1st place. And I think nearly everyone would agree that the Big Ten is down significantly this year, compared to most other power conferences.
And, 4 Big Ten teams, Ohio State (ranked 6th), Michigan, Michigan State, and Indiana, are ranked higher in both rankings.

Rankings-
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/polls

I would agree that the elite teams in the B-10 are weaker this year.
But it's tough to get a win on the road - no matter who you're playing this season. And Iowa and Northwestern are having better seasons than expected, along with maybe U of I.
 
I would agree that the B1G is the best all-around conference this year. Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Northwestern could all be dancing by the time all is said and done. Right now I'm just not seeing any other conferences that you could make the argument for as being clearly better than the B1G. The only thing they're missing is the powerhouse at the top of the conference, like the Big East has with Syracuse.
 
I agree with everyone that disagrees with DC. The Big Ten is toughest conference in the nation this year. Do they have a top 1-5 team? No. Would Syracuse be undefeated in the Big Ten? Not a chance. Baylor and Kentucky would have several more losses as well. The Big Ten may not get a #1 seed, but they will be well represented in the later rounds of the NCAA tourney this year. The polls reward gaudy records, not tough opponents, so the Big Ten looks poor in the polls, but watching them play, and looking at objective measures (RPI) tells a very different story.
 
IMO, Illinois is not the best team in the Big Ten, though they currently sit in 1st place. And I think nearly everyone would agree that the Big Ten is down significantly this year, compared to most other power conferences.
And, 4 Big Ten teams, Ohio State (ranked 6th), Michigan, Michigan State, and Indiana, are ranked higher in both rankings.

Rankings-
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/polls

Really? Everything I have read points to a very strong Big Ten this year. Most national pundits are projecting 7 to 9 NCAA bids. Whether that's too many of the "Big Boys" coming out of one conference is open for debate. But I would agree based on RPI and non-conference records that the Big Ten is probably the strongest conference this year, even slightly ahead of the Big East.

Perhaps the top 2 or 3 teams in the Big Ten maybe ranked slightly lower than Syracuse, Duke and a few others, and their may be no clear cut favorite in the Big Ten. But from top to bottom they seem to be the deepest this year.
 
but wasn't Indiana like ranked #7 last week - the 2nd highest ranking of any Big Ten team and yet now they can't beat anyone --
they lost again tonight to bottom dweller & last place team Nebraska and blew an 11-pt lead in the final few minutes
They have now lost 3 in a row - 2 to bottom dwellers, and are now only a game ahead of Nebraska
 
but wasn't Indiana like ranked #7 last week - the 2nd highest ranking of any Big Ten team and yet now they can't beat anyone --
they lost again tonight to bottom dweller & last place team Nebraska and blew an 11-pt lead in the final few minutes
They have now lost 3 in a row - 2 to bottom dwellers, and are now only a game ahead of Nebraska

Everyone got carried away with Indiana a little bit, really.

I guess it probably depends how you evaluate a conference - based on the number of elite teams, they're probably behind the BEast and Big 12 IMO, but the depth is the best in the country.
 
First of all, any complaining about an anomaly makes me chuckle.

2nd of all - sorry DC... too much info supports the argument that the B10 is "up" (not "down").

But maybe... maybe the B10 "has cracked the code" on the RPI. And it's just not right to use an old system as that to base an opinion. :razz: ;)

And so this discussion will look funny in a few weeks... maybe even sooner. But hey - checking the "Projected RPI" at Jerry Palm's site gives an interesting look into the future. Which, IMO... it's like a "heat-seeking" missile... it'll miss the correct direction to the right then correct itself to the left, but miss the correct direction a little too much to the left... then correct itself to the right a little... and so like with the Projected RPI, with each game played... it gets closer and closer to being correct.

So anyway - looking ahead (and based only on games played thru yesterday).... here is what the B10 teams will look like (not including any Conf Trny games):

RPI --- team --- Conf Record

6 Mich St 13-5
10 OSU 13-5
24 UIUC 12-6
22 Mich 11-7
27 Indy 11-7
32 NWrn 10-8
44 Wisky 10-8
55 Minn 9-9
64 Purdue 9-9
159 Iowa 5-13
176 Penn St 3-15
170 Nebr 2-16

If that were true, I see 5 locks. 2 more pretty much safely in, but I'd call them on the bubble. Then the next 2 in danger of being out. Pretty clearly out. 55 and 64 in the RPI and only .500 in conference. They would need to do some damage in the conf tourney to solidify their case and need teams like Murray St to win their conf tourneys.

So the 7-9 bid conversation is kinda funny to me. Yes 5, easily. Likely 7. But anyone locking up 9 makes me chuckle.

And then before I get blasted for saying that... and being told that an RPI of 55 and 64 are solid cause they are in the B10 and they were .500... you better then be able to admit that 3 teams from the MVC are locks too. Locks ahead of those 2. Cause here's the projected RPI for the top 3 MVC teams:
25 Creighton 16-2
26 Wichita St 15-3
33 UNI 13-5

Just don't try to tell me a 9-9 Purdue with a 64 RPI is a lock when a 13-5 UNI with a 33 RPI is not. That's all. :lol:
 
I don't see UNI going 13-5 in the MVC. Not when they are 3-5 now. I don't think they have a 10 game winning streak in them.
 
I don't see UNI going 13-5 in the MVC. Not when they are 3-5 now. I don't think they have a 10 game winning streak in them.

Well, UNI won't be a lock, but not because they will be 13-5. They'll be lucky to finish .500!

I agree cpac - doubt they go 13-5. Bfan, right...

But maybe you miss my point. Let's not pick apart negatively at UNI going 13-5.

My point was more about a 9-9 B10 team being 64 in the RPI being a lock... over someone being 35 with a decent conference record.

You gotta grasp the concept of the "heat-seeking" missile.

This will change tomorrow. With an updated RPI and an updated Projected RPI. And then - the teams STILL have to play the games.

So I am chuckling at anyone saying 9 teams from the B10 are in when they are likely throwing out someone with a decent in-conference record from a top 10 rated conference (based on RPI - hey that includes the Pac12, A10, CUSA, MtnWest AND the MVC).

Throw out UNI for name sake. Someone is gonna be #35 with a decent in-conference record in one of those conferences battling a possibly #64 team (like maybe Purdue) from the B10 that finishes 9th at 9-9.

That's all I'm trying to say.

:D
 
Maybe I just have titled the thread "Big Ten Standings Anomaly". Perhaps the 5th best team in the conference has managed to sneak its way into first place.
 
MM, the real funny thing is a lot of the pundits are saying go 8-10 in the Big Ten and teams could be okay for at-large! That's absolutely crazy that someone can be UNDER .500 and still get an at-large bid!
 
all the talking heads and even the Selection Committee Chairman when he's on TV 24/7 in March -- change their criteria to suit whatever appeals to them
and their needs to get the more "lucrative teams" into the dance....(interpreted - BCS schools)

Here's how the history of the selection criteria has evolved...

-we all remember when the rule was just win your conference or be a runnerup in a major conference - this is why BU was left out a few times in the late 50's and early 60's

-then came conference tournaments and they used those to keep all but one team from any smaller conference out -
so............just like they did to Bradley in 1982 - if you lose your conference tourney - you are out...

-then they went with the rankings as long as they could jimmy the rankings to keep smaller schools out

-then when the expanded tourney meant a whole lot more teams getting in - in order to get more runnerups from the big conferences in they added the criteria of looking at who you played and what their schedule was like - which morphed into a SOS...that way - obviously - all the BCS conference teams played way more BCS opponents than the mid-majors did..

-then when they even wanted to justify a 7-9 BCS conference team, they juggled numbers and came up with the RPI...

-then when several mid-majors (Butler, Bradley, etc..) started getting RPI's in the 30's, they had the gall to claim we somehow "broke the code" and figured a cheating method to beat the RPI!!
SO -- they wanted to abandon the very formula, the RPI, that was THEIR invention to try to keep the mid-majors out...and wanted a new system...
So they used an obscure, subjective call on how they played down the stretch or in "key games" thus Missouri State & Barry Hinson got screwed a few times...

-then came the "eye test", which they devised because it requires no explanation or defense - they simply decide who they want and claim their eye's can see it and justify it -

-now I wonder what will be the catch phrase this season -- back to the rankings??? -- some new formula?? -- the sniff test?? It'll be interesting after so many mid-majors have made idio*ts out of those gurus...
 
Yea, this absolute bias against mid-majors completely showed with the selection of UAB and VCU, two ridiculous selections that made little sense at the time.

T said:
all the talking heads and even the Selection Committee Chairman when he's on TV 24/7 in March -- change their criteria to suit whatever appeals to them
and their needs to get the more "lucrative teams" into the dance....(interpreted - BCS schools)

Yes, they change the criteria, but not to actively screw over mid-majors and make money. In fact, I'm glad they change the criteria every once in awhile, because it shows their willingness for progression and to find a better way to select teams. Now a few of the changes in itself are bad, but they're not making changes to actively screw over a whole section of teams. This much I believe.

T said:
-then when several mid-majors (Butler, Bradley, etc..) started getting RPI's in the 30's, they had the gall to claim we somehow "broke the code" and figured a cheating method to beat the RPI!!
SO -- they wanted to abandon the very formula, the RPI, that was THEIR invention to try to keep the mid-majors out...and wanted a new system...
So they used an obscure, subjective call on how they played down the stretch or in "key games" thus Missouri State & Barry Hinson got screwed a few times...
No, what happened was around that time, news went public about the NCAA's version of the RPI that gave extra weight to road wins and home losses, and the mid majors suddenly were propped up by it. Once the power conference schools caught on to the new formula, it because tougher for the Bradleys of the world to consistently be in the top 50 or so. This whole phenomenon about the RPI being less irrelevant coincided with the RPI formula changes becoming public and everyone realizing the numbers were different than before. That it coincided with the mid major boom in 2006 may or may not have been coincidental.

-then came the "eye test", which they devised because it requires no explanation or defense - they simply decide who they want and claim their eye's can see it and justify it -
The eye test was the smartest thing they ever done. Numbers are important, especially when they tell us something that we don't know or think, but the eye test has been the most critical thing they've ever done. They need a system of checks and balances against the numbers and by watching the teams, they get a much better sense of who they are and what they look like.

The eye test, when used wrongly, is a bad thing. The eye test the committee uses, however, IS correct. They see games from everywhere and anywhere, not just the big boys. And this is all documented. They have schedules and they see all sorts of teams.




T, you're much too cynical. You're probably right in that if the NCAA ever wanted to be actively biased against mid-majors, they could hide behind the system and do it. I, however, haven't seen any overwhelming evidence that they have.

And the selection committee itself is not biased, period. Incompetent, maybe, (well, probably). But I've seen their brackets for years and there is no real pattern of them being harsh towards mid majors. There have been isolated incidents, as I call them, but no pattern. And even if the NCAA is biased, the selection committee itself isn't. You really think an AD of a random small-conference team on the committee would actively be biased for the high majors? You're far too paranoid of the system today.



Now on a completely separate tangent, you list the following things and argue that these were biased against mid-majors:

-we all remember when the rule was just win your conference or be a runnerup in a major conference - this is why BU was left out a few times in the late 50's and early 60's
Ok, so are you arguing that this rule was biased against mid-majors? Because that's what it sounds like, but if you step back, you'll realize this was MORE biased against the high-majors, because the top conferences only got one team in a year (although it's probably the case that Bradley was high-major back then)

-then came conference tournaments and they used those to keep all but one team from any smaller conference out -
so............just like they did to Bradley in 1982 - if you lose your conference tourney - you are out...
Don't blame the selection committee for that - conference tournaments were the device of the individual conferences, each of who were greedy and sacrified tournament equity for a quick buck.

-then they went with the rankings as long as they could jimmy the rankings to keep smaller schools out

Ok, maybe they did, maybe they didn't, don't know enough about pre-RPI rankings to really know. Of course, everyone knows the polls have always been a sham.

-then when the expanded tourney meant a whole lot more teams getting in - in order to get more runnerups from the big conferences in they added the criteria of looking at who you played and what their schedule was like - which morphed into a SOS...that way - obviously - all the BCS conference teams played way more BCS opponents than the mid-majors did..
You're acting like SoS is some meaningless number or something.





The bottom line is that you can always convince yourself you're getting screwed, but there's no actual consistent evidence that mid-majors are being actively persecuted against here. Even in 2006, when people cried foul about Missouri St missing and BCS teams making it....the committee made two horrific selections: Air Force and Utah St, from two different mid major conferences, two teams that absolutely should not have been in. I don't see anyone mention how the mid majors caught a break there. Just that MSU got screwed.
 
The eye test was the smartest thing they ever done. Numbers are important, especially when they tell us something that we don't know or think, but the eye test has been the most critical thing they've ever done. They need a system of checks and balances against the numbers and by watching the teams, they get a much better sense of who they are and what they look like.

The eye test, when used wrongly, is a bad thing. The eye test the committee uses, however, IS correct. They see games from everywhere and anywhere, not just the big boys. And this is all documented. They have schedules and they see all sorts of teams.

The eye test is bogus. Sorry TAS, I totally disagree with all you have said here about it.

I don't buy that the committee sees as many games involving non-bcs as you say they do. Just as I don't agree that Bilas and company see non-bcs teams on a regular basis either.

There needs to be an OBJECTIVE way to pick at-large teams. Subjective doesn't work. Those AD's and commishs all have bias. And how could they not? It's their professional careers we are talking about.
 
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