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MVC Standings with 1 game left and Tournament scenarios

Da Coach

Da Coach

Moderator
Staff member
Here are the MVC Standings with 1 game left, and the teams' RPIs-

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Wichita State is locked into the #1 seed.

Evansvile and Illinois State are competing with each other for seeds #2 and #3, but which seed each will get depends on the outcome of the final game. They spilt the 2 regular season games. The next tiebreaker is RPI. Because Evansville's RPI is significantly better than ISU's, Evansville will have to lose at home against UNI and ISU win at WSU for ISU to get the #2 seed.
The most likely scenario: Evansville will be the #2 seed and ILSU will be the #3 seed.

SIU and UNI are competing with each other for seeds #4 and #5. They split the 2 reguar season games, so this might be decided by RPI if they remain tied after Saturday's games. UNI's RPI is so much better than SIU's that the only way SIU can get the #4 seed is if they move a game ahead of UNI by winning at home against MSU and UNI losing at Evansville. UNI has the tougher game to win, so this is close to a toss-up, but the slightly more likely scenario is: SIU will be the #4 seed and UNI will be the #5 seed. In reality, it does not matter, since they will play each other Friday regardless of which team gets #4 or #5, for the priviledge of playing Wichita State in the semifinals on Saturday.

Missouri State, Loyola, and Indiana State can all finish #6, #7, or #8 depending on the out come of their final games. All 3 teams have already split 1-1 with the other 2. Missouri State is a game ahead of the other 2, but loses the tiebreaker to both because of their lowest RPI. MSU, not a good a road team (4-10 on the season), plays at SIU. If they win, they will get the coveted #6 seed and stay out of the Thursday night games.
Loyola, which is a fairly decent road team (they have won 5 road games this season) plays at Drake, and their RPI is better than MSU, but not as good at INSU. The only way they can get the #6 seed is if they win and both MSU and INSU lose Saturday.
And Indiana State (9-4 at home) is the only one of these 3 that has the advantage of playing at home, against Bradley. INSU's RPI is significantly better than LU or MSU. So they might be the favorite to move up to the #6 seed, but that can only happen if they win and MSU loses.
This one is tough to call, and any scenario is possible, but my guess is that Indiana State will win and move up to the #6 seed, Loyola will win at Drake and be #7, and Missouri State will lose at SIU and fall to #8.

Bradley is now locked into #9, and will play in the 6:00 PM game next Thursday night (March 3) against the #8 seed. And Drake is locked into #10, and will play the second game next Thursday night at 8:30 PM against the #7 seed.
 
If it finishes as you say..
1- Wichita
2- Evansville
3- ISU
4- SIU
5- UNI
6- InSU
7- Loyola
8- Missouri State
9- Bradley
10- Drake


Here is how they were picked in the preseason...
1- Wichita
2- Evansville
3- UNI
4- ISU
5- Loyola
6- InSU
7- Drake
8- Missouri State
9- SIU
10- Bradley

The only teams that have finished BETTER than predicted are
ISU by one spot - but the preseason voting for 3 & 4 were extremely close so a lot of voters had ISU 3rd
SIU by 5 spots - definitely the only significant surprise team..
and Bradley - just holding this team together, getting better, and getting the approval of the fans & even the negative/skeptical media has been impressive

I think the best coaching jobs relative to where everyone expected the teams to be have been SIU (Barry Hinson) and Bradley (Brian Wardle)
 
The SIU media seems pretty well already settled that SIU will be lucky to go to the NIT and has no shot at winning in St. Louis

http://thesouthern.com/news/opinion...cle_fc2d220e-691d-51bb-8845-d29a31d1375f.html


He also says..
"SIU's average attendance -- 5,229 fans per game this season, the most in
seven years -- could also play a role in the Salukis getting invited to the NIT."

..but wait- I thought we've been told that the ability to draw is NEVER considered in getting NIT bids...

He also discusses SIU's chances for the CBI, the CIT, and even the brand new Vegas 16 post-season tourney
"...there would be money to bid for those other three events...."
 
SIU-Missouri State game still to be played but here's the current standings

Missouri Valley Standings
TEAM CONF OVERALL
Wichita St .....16-2 23-7
Evansville .....12-6 23-8 (Evansville wins tiebreaker over ISU)
Illinois State.. 12-6 18-13
Northern Iowa 11-7 19-12 (UNI wins tiebreaker over SIU)
SIU............... 10-7 21-9
Missouri State.. 8-9 12-17
Indiana State... 8-10 14-16 (Indiana State wins tiebreaker over Missouri State if needed)
Loyola (CHI).... 7-11 14-16
Bradley........... 3-15 5-26
Drake .............2-16 7-23


so, yes- we play Loyola who take a bad loss at Drake
and
 
It is a little interesting this year, Bradley would have a better chance at shocking the Valley by winning the tournament if we were the 10 seed rather than the 9. If you don't have to play Wichita until the championship game, maybe someone will upset them so you don't have to. As we are now we can't rely on someone else to do the most difficult thing in Valley play, we would have to man up kill the giant. After how we played today I would be ecstatic winning Thursday, even if we get walloped on Friday.
 
Players and coaches should definitely focus on the game ahead. As a fan I like to speculate, and if someone wanted to play Cinderella in St. Louis, it would be easier as the 10 or 7 seeds.
 
SIU wins 78-68 so it looks like ISU Blue moves up to the 6th seed and Missouri State will play Drake on Thursday at 8:30, following BU versus Loyola at 6:00.
 
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