MVC Tournament seeding probabilities (BU #1)

[Da Coach]

Matt Hackman is back with his MVC seeding probabilities. He reaches his results based in 100,000 simulations for the remaining conference games based on winning probabilities from KenPom.com ratings and Jeff Sagarin's Predictor ratings.

1 month ago (11/29/22) here was his probabilities grid-
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...29888848367616
He had Drake #1, SIU #2, Murray State #3, Bradley #4, INSU #5, Belmont #6, Missouri State #7, UNI #8, UIC #9, Valpo #10, ILSU #11, and Evansville #12

Today (12/27/22) he updated the numbers... Bradley has moved up 3 spots (more than any team) to #1-
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...19076297949184

Now he has Bradley #1, Indiana State #2, Drake #3, SIU #4, Missouri State #5, Belmont #6, Murray State #7, UNI #8, ILSU #9, UIC #10, Valpo #11, and Evansville #12.

He also calculates the approximate probabilities for how many wins are needed to finish in the top 4 seeds, and stay out of Thursday's games-
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1607819076297949184

11-9 is a less than 10% chance
12-8 is basically a 50% chance
13-7 is a greater than 90% chance

 

[tecon89]

Bradley heavy favorite to win regular season title. Great to see, I think the numbers will grow quite a bit if they win tonight as they are not favored

 

[Stryker]

Bradley heavy favorite to win regular season title. Great to see, I think the numbers will grow quite a bit if they win tonight as they are not favored

I agree. However, I think Drake and ISUblue are going to make runs this year. Should be a tough fight, but it would be amazing to see BU get a regular season title and say 10 or fewer losses.