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With 11 games to go....

C

Chucky T's

New member
BU has six games at home and five on the road the remainder of the season. If we win out at home (no easy task) and lose all our roadies we will finish 19 - 12. I think that puts us in the same situation as last year. If we win one game in STL we are on the bubble....two wins in STL gives us a good chance to go dancin'. Of course if we can win at least one more on the road that will improve our chances even more. Does this sound about right or do you think we need to do even more to reach the big dance?
 
If BU wins their last 6 conference home games and loses their 4 road games, they would finish 10-8 in the MVC. That might not be good enough for an NCAA bid. BU would have to win at least 2 MVC tournament games in that case, IMO.
But if BU can win a couple more road conference games (not an easy task), and finish 11-7 or 12-6, then I think the a-large bid would come with just 1 tournament win. However, there are too many variables to plan for. Bradley needs to win the Bracket Buster, because a loss there would probably damage the RPI more than any other game on the schedule. And much depends on how MSU, UNI, WSU, SIU, and CU finish, because their non-conference performances are as strong or stronger than Bradley's.
 
Re: With 11 games to go....

Chucky T's said:
BU has six games at home and five on the road the remainder of the season. If we win out at home (no easy task) and lose all our roadies we will finish 19 - 12. I think that puts us in the same situation as last year. If we win one game in STL we are on the bubble....two wins in STL gives us a good chance to go dancin'. Of course if we can win at least one more on the road that will improve our chances even more. Does this sound about right or do you think we need to do even more to reach the big dance?
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No. I don't think that's going to be quite good enough. Your scenario has us finishing 10-8 in conference and losing our bracket buster game. I think at a bare minimum we'll need to be 11-7 in conference (like last year) and we must win that final non-con game...it will most likely be against a team with a lower RPI.

I get the feeling, right or wrong, that the MVC will end up with 3 bids this year.
 
Re: With 11 games to go....

Chucky T's said:
BU has six games at home and five on the road the remainder of the season. If we win out at home (no easy task) and lose all our roadies we will finish 19 - 12. I think that puts us in the same situation as last year. If we win one game in STL we are on the bubble....two wins in STL gives us a good chance to go dancin'. Of course if we can win at least one more on the road that will improve our chances even more. Does this sound about right or do you think we need to do even more to reach the big dance?
Click to expand...

We need more than 19-12 and a couple tourney wins. In the end the Michigan State blow-out and the loss to Tenn. Tech. could kill BU when they are compared to other teams for the final at-large bids. Sure, we beat DePaul but that was at home and they may not get in either. Also, we finished really strong last year so we better finish as strong to get consideration. We need a couple road wins and should get those ISU and Evansville. In my opinion, if we cannot beat those teams on the road we do not deserve a bid! The "Bracket Buster" game will be VERY important this year as our rpi should be much higher than last year when the pairings are announced. We could see BU on TV this year in that game against a good team. A bad showing in that game could spell doom if we don't go 12-6 in the conference.
 
Re: With 11 games to go....

Chucky T's said:
BU has six games at home and five on the road the remainder of the season. If we win out at home (no easy task) and lose all our roadies we will finish 19 - 12. I think that puts us in the same situation as last year. If we win one game in STL we are on the bubble....two wins in STL gives us a good chance to go dancin'. Of course if we can win at least one more on the road that will improve our chances even more. Does this sound about right or do you think we need to do even more to reach the big dance?
Click to expand...

No, we definately need at least one, if not two more road wins. One may do it if we win out at home, but we'd still need to win at least one Valley tourney game to at least put us over a 50% chance of an at-large bid. Also, don't forget one our wins is against a non-Division 1 team, so two road wins definately would be advisable to make things easier for the selection committee.

I do think we are more than capable of winning two more road games (IL St and Evansville), but they aren't going to be easy in that both have quality wins at home. But those would figure to be our best chances of winning a couple of remaining road games.
 
Here's the way I see the conference standings on Feb. 25:

CU......13-5
UNI.....13-5
MS......13-5
SIU.....12-6
BU......10-8
WS.....10-8
INS......6-12
UE.......5-13
isu.......5-13
DU.......3-15

Depending on the BracketBuster games and what the other at-large possibilities do in their own conference tournaments, I think Bradley and Wichita State will both need a couple of wins in St. Louis.
 
shaunguth said:
Here's the way I see the conference standings on Feb. 25:

CU......13-5
UNI.....13-5
MS......13-5
SIU.....12-6
BU......10-8
WS.....10-8
INS......6-12
UE.......5-13
isu.......5-13
DU.......3-15

Depending on the BracketBuster games and what the other at-large possibilities do in their own conference tournaments, I think Bradley and Wichita State will both need a couple of wins in St. Louis.
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I would love 10-8, I would be absolutely ecstatic with 11-7.
Actually, I think the top teams could be at 6 losses and your bottom dwellers will probably have 1 more win than you credit them for. Especially ISU Blue.
 
I really don't think we get a bid with more than 11 losses (including one in the MVC tourney), MAYBE 12 if we get to the finals of the tournament. That means we need to win out at home and get at least 2 more on the road.
 
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