Opponents' winning percentage coming in

[shaunguth]

This has to be one of the toughest schedules we've ever had.

Coming into their games against Bradley, our opponents have a .702 winning percentage (134-57)! :-o

Only two teams had a losing record coming in...Florida A&M (1-3) and Rutgers (1-2).

Only two teams have a losing record right now...Illinois-Chicago (9-10) and Rutgers (8-10).

Hopefully, the selection committee will see an RPI in the 30's along with a schedule like this and put us in if we get to 20 wins.

 

[squirrel]

Re: Opponents' winning percentage coming in

This has to be one of the toughest schedules we've ever had.

Coming into their games against Bradley, our opponents have a .702 winning percentage (134-57)! :-o

Only two teams had a losing record coming in...Florida A&M (1-3) and Rutgers (1-2).

Only two teams have a losing record right now...Illinois-Chicago (9-10) and Rutgers (8-10).

Hopefully, the selection committee will see an RPI in the 30's along with a schedule like this and put us in if we get to 20 wins.

Our opponents are helping us out for sure. However. . .

The Selection Committee will see our RPI and our SOS. They will also see that we are 1-5 against RPI 50 teams, including a neutral court loss. They will also see we were only able to beat 1 RPI 100 team away from Carver.

BU has to finish strong in the Valley. I believe they can get an at-large with a top 4 Valley finish and 20+ wins. So there is still work to do.

One problem is we may end up on the bubble with Illinois, a team that beat us head 2 head and played MSU much more competitively on the road.

 

[BradleyBrave]

Re: Opponents' winning percentage coming in

This has to be one of the toughest schedules we've ever had.

Coming into their games against Bradley, our opponents have a .702 winning percentage (134-57)! :-o

Only two teams had a losing record coming in...Florida A&M (1-3) and Rutgers (1-2).

Only two teams have a losing record right now...Illinois-Chicago (9-10) and Rutgers (8-10).

Hopefully, the selection committee will see an RPI in the 30's along with a schedule like this and put us in if we get to 20 wins.

Our opponents are helping us out for sure. However. . .

The Selection Committee will see our RPI and our SOS. They will also see that we are 1-5 against RPI 50 teams, including a neutral court loss. They will also see we were only able to beat 1 RPI 100 team away from Carver.

BU has to finish strong in the Valley. I believe they can get an at-large with a top 4 Valley finish and 20+ wins. So there is still work to do.

One problem is we may end up on the bubble with Illinois, a team that beat us head 2 head and played MSU much more competitively on the road.

Squirrel is right on all accounts. A few things that might help us when it comes to Selection Sunday (assuming we can get to 20 wins and a top 4-5 finish) -

1.) Jeremy Crouch's injury - The committee has said repeatedly they take injuries into account. That being said, we're 4-3 without JC. You could argue that JC would have made a difference in 2 of those loses (MSU, CU), giving us 2 more wins. He was our leading scorer, top 3-pt shooter, top FT shooter, and leading steal man, so we have a strong case there.

2.) Last 10 games - This is one of things that put us in last year. Again this year, February is kind to us. We have a home-heavy schedule to finish out the conference season (5 home games), and a couple of winnable road games.

3.) Tournament History - The committee has said repeatedly they DON'T take this into consideration, but these people are human, and it would be naive to think that this doesn't come into play in one form or another. Our success last year give us and our conference some more credibility than it might have if this was the 1st year of this kind of success. They say last year doesn't count, but I disagree. It counts for something.

Of course, the top 3 items are moot points if we don't do things like take care of the home court, lose winnable road games (like ISU), or lose in the 1st round of Arch Madness. The opportunity is there, we just have to take advantage of it.

 

[squirrel]

Re: Opponents' winning percentage coming in

This has to be one of the toughest schedules we've ever had.

Coming into their games against Bradley, our opponents have a .702 winning percentage (134-57)! :-o

Only two teams had a losing record coming in...Florida A&M (1-3) and Rutgers (1-2).

Only two teams have a losing record right now...Illinois-Chicago (9-10) and Rutgers (8-10).

Hopefully, the selection committee will see an RPI in the 30's along with a schedule like this and put us in if we get to 20 wins.

Our opponents are helping us out for sure. However. . .

The Selection Committee will see our RPI and our SOS. They will also see that we are 1-5 against RPI 50 teams, including a neutral court loss. They will also see we were only able to beat 1 RPI 100 team away from Carver.

BU has to finish strong in the Valley. I believe they can get an at-large with a top 4 Valley finish and 20+ wins. So there is still work to do.

One problem is we may end up on the bubble with Illinois, a team that beat us head 2 head and played MSU much more competitively on the road.

Squirrel is right on all accounts. A few things that might help us when it comes to Selection Sunday (assuming we can get to 20 wins and a top 4-5 finish) -

1.) Jeremy Crouch's injury - The committee has said repeatedly they take injuries into account. That being said, we're 4-3 without JC. You could argue that JC would have made a difference in 2 of those loses (MSU, CU), giving us 2 more wins. He was our leading scorer, top 3-pt shooter, top FT shooter, and leading steal man, so we have a strong case there.

2.) Last 10 games - This is one of things that put us in last year. Again this year, February is kind to us. We have a home-heavy schedule to finish out the conference season (5 home games), and a couple of winnable road games.

3.) Tournament History - The committee has said repeatedly they DON'T take this into consideration, but these people are human, and it would be naive to think that this doesn't come into play in one form or another. Our success last year give us and our conference some more credibility than it might have if this was the 1st year of this kind of success. They say last year doesn't count, but I disagree. It counts for something.

Of course, the top 3 items are moot points if we don't do things like take care of the home court, lose winnable road games (like ISU), or lose in the 1st round of Arch Madness. The opportunity is there, we just have to take advantage of it.

I don't think Crouch helps or hurts us really. It's a push. If that's used as an argument, they'll see that most 3 of our 4 biggest wins (SIU, WSU, and @InSU in conference) were without him. So they will assume that we were the same team with him as without him, so it's really not an argument that could be used to bolster our case.

Our efficiency should be used as an argument. Consistently efficient teams do better in the postseason, and that is also why we are able to win without JC.

 

[Grassman]

All well said points. the Great thing is BU controls its own destiny. 8-2 rest of the way and 1 tourney win we are there.
7-3 rest of the way and 2 tourney wins we are in. Anything less and we are in the NIT.

 

[shaunguth]

Really? I have a hard time believing we wouldn't get in with a 22-11 (13-7) record with the schedule we've played.

 

[BTID]

Barring a major collapse down the stretch of the season, I think the Missouri Valley will have 3 teams in the NCAA's this year (SIU, UNI, MSU). If, and that's a big IF the Valley lands 4 teams in the field of 65, I think the 4th team will come down to Bradley and Creighton. If the Braves hold serve at home, win their road BB game, and split their other 4 remaining road games and win 1 in St. Louis, I think they'll get a serious look from the Selection Committee. There will be a truckload of bubble teams to consider this year. You can make a case to leave someone out as much as you can to put someone in. In most other years, commentators will say there are at least 15 teams capable of winning the National Championship. This year, I only see 4 or 5 truly exceptional teams in the mix. Despite 2 losses each, I think Florida and North Carolina are the most consistent teams so far when they are on their games, but they can be had on a given night. So, I'll say BU must finish 23-9 unless they win the MVC Tourney in order to get in--anything less will put the Braves in the NIT, but as has been posted, prior to the start of the year, most of us would have been giddy over that prospect!

 

[georgethedog]

Barring a major collapse down the stretch of the season, I think the Missouri Valley will have 3 teams in the NCAA's this year (SIU, UNI, MSU). If, and that's a big IF the Valley lands 4 teams in the field of 65, I think the 4th team will come down to Bradley and Creighton. If the Braves hold serve at home, win their road BB game, and split their other 4 remaining road games and win 1 in St. Louis, I think they'll get a serious look from the Selection Committee. There will be a truckload of bubble teams to consider this year. You can make a case to leave someone out as much as you can to put someone in. In most other years, commentators will say there are at least 15 teams capable of winning the National Championship. This year, I only see 4 or 5 truly exceptional teams in the mix. Despite 2 losses each, I think Florida and North Carolina are the most consistent teams so far when they are on their games, but they can be had on a given night. So, I'll say BU must finish 23-9 unless they win the MVC Tourney in order to get in--anything less will put the Braves in the NIT, but as has been posted, prior to the start of the year, most of us would have been giddy over that prospect!

I pretty much agree. Even though our SOS is high, the teams we beat in the non-conference part of the season are not all that impressive... and we lost to Tenn. Tech and got murdered at MSU. Those two games will hurt us in the end.

 

[MacabreMob]

We have our work cut out for us. Just like everyone else.

Here's something to digest....

Bradley
Away Neutral Record: 4-6
vs Top 50 RPI: 1-5
NonConference SOS: 43
Overall SOS: 12


Ranked Teams ..-.. Away/Neutral Records ..-.. Non-Conference SOS ..-.. Overall SOS:
Ohio St ..-.. 2-3 ..-.. 120 ..-.. 42
Virginia Tech ..-.. 4-5 ..-.. 139 ..-.. 26
Notre Dame ..-.. 2-3 ..-.. 263 ..-.. 115
LSU ..-.. 2-4 ..-.. 128 ..-.. 62

Ranked Teams ..-.. vs Top 50 ..-.. NonCon SOS ..-.. Overall SOS:
Kentucky ..-.. 1-3 ..-.. 4 ..-.. 3
Memphis ..-.. 1-3 ..-.. 18 ..-.. 47
Alabama ..-.. 1-2 ..-.. 111 ..-.. 53
Indiana ..-.. 3-4 ..-.. 76 ..-.. 24
Notre Dame ..-.. 2-3 ..-.. 263 ..-.. 115
LSU ..-.. 1-2 ..-.. 128 ..-.. 62
USC ..-.. 2-4 ..-.. 215 ..-.. 67

 

[georgethedog]

We have our work cut out for us. Just like everyone else.

Here's something to digest....

Bradley
Away Neutral Record: 4-6
vs Top 50 RPI: 1-5
NonConference SOS: 43
Overall SOS: 12


Ranked Teams ..-.. Away/Neutral Records ..-.. Non-Conference SOS ..-.. Overall SOS:
Ohio St ..-.. 2-3 ..-.. 120 ..-.. 42
Virginia Tech ..-.. 4-5 ..-.. 139 ..-.. 26
Notre Dame ..-.. 2-3 ..-.. 263 ..-.. 115
LSU ..-.. 2-4 ..-.. 128 ..-.. 62

Ranked Teams ..-.. vs Top 50 ..-.. NonCon SOS ..-.. Overall SOS:
Kentucky ..-.. 1-3 ..-.. 4 ..-.. 3
Memphis ..-.. 1-3 ..-.. 18 ..-.. 47
Alabama ..-.. 1-2 ..-.. 111 ..-.. 53
Indiana ..-.. 3-4 ..-.. 76 ..-.. 24
Notre Dame ..-.. 2-3 ..-.. 263 ..-.. 115
LSU ..-.. 1-2 ..-.. 128 ..-.. 62
USC ..-.. 2-4 ..-.. 215 ..-.. 67

This just shows us how important it is for us to win somewhere big like MSU and/or SIU along with ISU and Evansville. We need a few more top 50 wins. We can get 3-4 of them.

 

[BTID]

Despite the low numbers, I think USC is a team on the rise. They can definitely play themselves into the tournament. Notre Dame looks suspect to me, but that's only because every time I watch them on TV, they're playing in South Bend! Then you see someone like Syracuse. They've lost at home to Wichita State and Drexel. They lost at St. John's--a team Illinois State handled rather easily in December in New York--but they beat Marquette in Milwaukee! As for Marquette, they've won tough road games at Connecticut and Pittsburgh, but they looked poor against Syracuse and Wisconsin at home. They lost at home to North Dakota State, and they had to go overtime to beat Idaho State. I agree with george--our losses to Tennessee Tech and Michigan State were pretty bad. If the Committee picked the field today, we would be out, considering Illinois beat us by 4 but lost in East Lansing by 6. The Illini also hammered Austin Peay by 45 in Champaign, and the Governors are currently leading the Ohio Valley Conference (TTU is in 4th place, by the way). I think North Carolina is playing at Arizona later this week. Funny, but the BCS schools don't seem to mind playing their cronies on the road. Think Roy Williams would ever schedule the Heels to play in Flagstaff against NAU :?: