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Bradley Favored

Well, what do we do here Bradley Brave?

I said it would open at -6 (but should open at -8 1/2). You said -5.

Guess we better take Iowa St and the points, huh? ;) Just kidding.

Wonder if Grassman has the o/u?
 
MacabreMob said:
Well, what do we do here Bradley Brave?

I said it would open at -6 (but should open at -8 1/2). You said -5.

Guess we better take Iowa St and the points, huh? ;) Just kidding.

Wonder if Grassman has the o/u?
Click to expand...

I would take the points. BU hasn't shown me in the preseason or regular season that they can defend or play together just yet. BU should win, but it wouldn't surprise me if we gutted out a tight, sloppy win.
 
MacabreMob said:
Well, what do we do here Bradley Brave?

I said it would open at -6 (but should open at -8 1/2). You said -5.

Guess we better take Iowa St and the points, huh? ;) Just kidding.

Wonder if Grassman has the o/u?
Click to expand...

O/u not established yet and I am going to catch some zzzzzzzzzzzzzz's
Gotta get ready for the Big game tomorrow night.
 
I am not a gambler by any stretch, but for years my brother and I sit at the game knowing the line and have been amazed at how accurate it can be in college hoops. However that is typically once you get into the conference season. These games are way too early in my opinion for them to have enough info to formulate the line properly.

I hope that I'm wrong, but -10 or -11 looks like an awful lot to me.
 
I would have to take the points in this case. I think Bradley will win the game, but probably in the 6-8 point range.

Prediction: 74-67
 
CBS' Tony Mejia has predicted a 75-63 Bradley victory.

For those that aren't aware, here's Mejia's record over the past five years:

Year to date: 189-44 (81.1%)

2006-07: 3,813-1,482 (72.0%)
2005-06: 3,473-1,346 (72.1%)
2004-05: 3,523-1,301 (73.0%)
2003-04: 3,606-1,300 (73.5%)
2002-03: 3,294-1,246 (72.6%)
 
72-73%.....that's not the least bit impressive, since using NO THOUGHT WHATSOEVER and going with simple stats (that show the higher rated RPI team wins 75-85% of the time) would do even better......

This reminds me of when Phil Theobald and Dick Lien used to participate weekly in the predictions for who's going to win the NFL games. Obviously a guy with a dart board or an Ouija Board would have been able to get about 50% right, as they were picking against the spread.

But year in and year out both of those guys would be UNDER .500!!!!!! Their season ending stats would always be only about 40+% accuracy.......often even less than the "guest picker" usually some lady who works at a muffler shop that buys advertising space in the PJ Star!!!

So....I don't think I'd get too excited about Mejia if his five-year success rate is no more than 70%!!!!
 
tornado said:
72-73%.....that's not the least bit impressive, since using NO THOUGHT WHATSOEVER and going with simple stats (that show the higher rated RPI team wins 75-85% of the time) would do even better......

This reminds me of when Phil Theobald and Dick Lien used to participate weekly in the predictions for who's going to win the NFL games. Obviously a guy with a dart board or an Ouija Board would have been able to get about 50% right, as they were picking against the spread.

But year in and year out both of those guys would be 30-50 picks
UNDER .500!!!!!! Their season ending stats would always be only about 35-40% accuracy.......always even less than the "guest picker" usually some lady who works at a muffler shop that buys advertising space in the PJ Star!!!

So....I don't think I'd get too excited about Mejia if his five-year success rate is no more than 70%!!!!
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I wouldn't get overly excited about it either. For the record, as of right now Iowa State is the much higher-rated RPI team so I'll be quite pleased when Bradley bucks the trend in a little over eight hours! :)
 
I think 70% is pretty good for sports betting.

EX: You play 10 games and try to win $100 each wager. You must put up $110 in order to win $100. So if you win 5 and lose 5, you actually don't break even cause you are out the 'juice' (in this case... win 500 and lose 550... so out 50). You would really need to win at least 6 to be making any money. I'd say 65% would be the best one could hope for and anything over it in a hot streak is gravy. So if this guy has been 70% for 5 years running... that's pretty good. And he's 80% right now.... either he is on fire and you need to get on the bandwagon, or look out - he's due for a bad streak to correct his average back to 70%.

And until someone has put real money on a wager, I don't care what they say about what they would have bet. If you liked it enough, you woulda played it. Money talks - bs walks. There are no talking rights to 'knowing' the outcome unless you have money in action. Cause believe me... I am one of the BEST handicappers of a race AFTER it is over (it all makes sense why so-n-so won and why so-n-so lost).
 
it's boogie time said:
I don't think he is betting against a spread. He is just picking winners. It doesn't sound like he is going out on a limb by predicting the favored team by about the same amount as the spread.
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Exactly. 70% against the spread will get you either hired by Vegas to set odds or hired by the mob to bet for bosses (see the movie 'Casino', based on the life story of Sam Rosenthal). If you're above 55% against the spread, and you bet in set units and not erratic amounts, you're gonna be profiting. Most 'experts' can't even get above 50% against the number.
 
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