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TAS Bracketology 2009

T

TheAsianSensation

New member
It occured to me there might be a big enough audience this year. Despite not having much relevance to Bradley or even the MVC for that matter.

Bracket in next post. Questions are sure to ensue ;)
 
Disclaimer: This was done before Big Monday. UConn's still a 1 seed right now, just probably swapping positions with Pitt.


EAST region

@Philadelphia
1) Connecticut (24-1) vs. 16) Radford (12-10)/Alabama St (12-8 )
8 ) BYU (18-5) vs. 9) Ohio St (17-6)

@Portland
4) Butler (21-2) vs. 13) Northern Iowa (17-8 )
5) Florida St (19-6) vs. 12) USC (15-8 )

@Miami
3) Clemson (20-3) vs. 14) American (17-7)
6) Syracuse (18-7) vs. 11) Utah St (23-2)

@Dayton
2) Memphis (22-3) vs. 15) CSU-Northridge (11-10)
7) UCLA (19-6) vs. 10) Davidson (21-4)


WEST region

@Philadelphia
1) Pittsburgh (22-2) vs. 16) Jacksonville (14-10)
8 ) Texas (17-7) vs. 9) Virginia Tech (16-8 )

@Portland
4) Washington (19-6) vs. 13) Northeastern (16-9)
5) Tennessee (16-8 ) vs. 12) UNLV (19-6)

@Kansas City
3) Kansas (20-5) vs. 14) Arkansas-Little Rock (19-6)
6) Purdue (19-6) vs. 11) Cincinnati (16-9)

@Greensboro
2) Duke (20-4) vs. 15) Robert Morris (19-8 )
7) Dayton (23-3) vs. 10) Providence (16-9)




MIDWEST region

@Kansas City
1) Oklahoma (25-1) vs. 16) Morehead St (14-11)
8 ) West Virginia (17-8 ) vs. 9) Arizona (18-8 )

@Boise
4) Wake Forest (19-4) vs. 13) Buffalo (17-5)
5) Illinois (20-5) vs. 12) Siena (20-6)

@Minnesota
3) Xavier (21-4) vs. 14) Weber St (16-8 )
6) Utah (18-6) vs. 11) Miami (14-8 )

@Dayton
2) Louisville (18-5) vs. 15) Sam Houston St (10-9)
7) California (19-6) vs. 10) Florida (19-6)

SOUTH region

@Greensboro
1) North Carolina (21-2) vs. 16) Morgan St (14-10)
8 ) South Carolina (18-5) vs. 9) Minnesota (18-6)

@Boise
4) Marquette (21-4) vs. 13) Binghamton (16-8 )
5) Missouri (21-4) vs. 12) Wisconsin (15-9)

@Miami
3) Villanova (20-5) vs. 14) Cornell (15-7)
6) Gonzaga (18-5) vs. 11) Kentucky (18-7)

@Minnesota
2) Michigan St (20-4) vs. 15) North Dakota St (17-6)
7) Arizona St (19-5) vs. 10) Boston College (18-8 )
 
Last 4 in
Miami
Cincinnati
USC
Wisconsin

Last 4 out
LSU (21-4)
Georgetown (13-10)
San Diego St (16-6)
Kansas St (16-8 )

Next 4 out
Oklahoma St (15-9)
Temple (14-9)
St Mary's (18-5)
UAB (17-8 )


Radaring
Michigan (14-10)
Penn St (18-8 )
Baylor (15-9)
Texas A&M (16-8 )
Creighton (19-6)
Maryland (16-8 )
George Mason (17-8 )
St Joseph's (14-10)
 
The 1% club: Every year, someone runs out of this group to claim an at-large. It does not fail. One of these teams will make it:

Northwestern (13-9), Notre Dame (12-10), Nebraska (15-8 ), Stanford (15-8 ), Vanderbilt (15-9), Seton Hall (13-10), Ole Miss (13-11), Arkansas (13-10), New Mexico (16-9), Rhode Island (18-8 ), Illinois St (20-5), Wisconsin-Green Bay (18-7), Boise St (16-7), VCU (18-8 ), Western Kentucky (16-8 ), North Carolina St (14-9)


That covers the 32 NIT spots.

This next section is obviously very fluid. However, I post it to give everyone an idea as to Bradley's postseason chances, and to give a good indication of where we are in comparison to everyone else.



Let's fill the .com tournament!
Duqense (15-8 ), Mississippi St (15-9), Auburn (15-9), Bradley (13-10), Cleveland St (16-8 ), Houston (16-7), MiamiOH (15-8 ), VMI (16-5), Tulsa (16-9), UTEP (15-9), Wright St (16-10), Nevada (14-10), Niagara (21-6), Hofstra (16-9), Drexel (13-10), Portland (15-9)

CBI:
Vermont (19-7), Troy (16-10), Charleston (17-7), Tennessee-Martin (16-6), Washington St (13-12), TCU (12-12), St Louis (14-10), LaSalle (14-10), Central Florida (15-9), Evansville (13-10), Drake (14-11), Wisconsin-Milwaukee (12-11), New Mexico St (13-12), Fairfield (15-12), James Madison (17-10), Old Dominion (16-9)
 
Pretty marginal week for the mid majors.

I love the MWC's chances to get 4 now.

The A-10 should get 2.

Davidson will get the one mulligan (the comittee pays attention to stuff like that when Curry is out). Davidson/Butler is a play-in game - winner should lock into the field. If Davidson loses, though, it's bubble trouble all of a sudden.

Utah St makes me nervous.

Creighton is better off than we first though. They have a nice pocket collection of wins to lean on, so they're going to look pretty good compared to other mid majors, at least.
 
Summary of BB:

Creighton's game is must-win for at-large consideration.

UNI is dead, but a win at Siena will force everyone to look at the profile one last time.

ISU has a pulse, but only because they play 3 relatively good opponents in a row with a chance to win 3 straight games.

Bradley needs this for their fledgling NIT hopes, but more likely to secure some kind of posteason.

Evansville is really in their extremeties and fighting for a postseason bert.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
Summary of BB:

Creighton's game is must-win for at-large consideration.

UNI is dead, but a win at Siena will force everyone to look at the profile one last time.

ISU has a pulse, but only because they play 3 relatively good opponents in a row with a chance to win 3 straight games.

Bradley needs this for their fledgling NIT hopes, but more likely to secure some kind of posteason.

Evansville is really in their extremeties and fighting for a postseason bert.
Click to expand...


Is a postseason bert different than a postseason birth? ;)
 
EAST

@Dayton
1) Pittsburgh (24-2) vs. 16) Jacksonville (15-11)/Alabama St (13-8 )
8) Florida (21-6) vs. 9) Siena (22-6)

@Boise
4) Wake Forest (20-4) vs. 13) Vermont (22-7)
5) Illinois (21-6) vs. 12) Utah St (24-3)

@KansasCity
3) Kansas (22-5) vs. 14) North Dakota St (19-6)
6) Utah (19-6) vs. 11) Virginia Tech (16-10)

@Miami
2) Memphis (24-3) vs. 15) Stephen F. Austin (13-7)
7) Dayton (23-4) vs. 10) LSU (23-4)


SOUTH

@Greensboro
1) North Carolina (23-3) vs. 16) Morgan St (17-10)
8) Syracuse (18-7) vs. 9) Kentucky (19-8 )

@Boise
4) Purdue (21-6) vs. 13) VCU (19-9)
5) Washington (20-7) vs. 12) UNLV (20-7)

@Minneapolis
3) Xavier (21-5) vs. 14) Weber St (17-8 )
6) Gonzaga (20-5) vs. 11) Boston College (19-9)

@Minneapolis
2) Louisville (21-5) vs. 15) Tennessee-Martin (17-7)
7) Texas (18-8 ) vs. 10) Minnesota (18-7)


MIDWEST

@Philadelphia
1) Connecticut (25-2) vs. 16) Robert Morris (19-10)
8) Tennessee (16-10) vs. 9) Arizona (18-8 )

@Portland
4) Missouri (22-4) vs. 13) Western Kentucky (18-8 )
5) Florida St (21-6) vs. 12) Michigan (16-10)

@Miami
3) Clemson (21-4) vs. 14) Buffalo (17-8 )
6) West Virginia (18-8 ) vs. 11) Oklahoma St (17-9)

@Dayton
2) Michigan St (20-5) vs. 15) Cornell (16-8 )
7) California (20-7) vs. 10) San Diego St (16-7)


WEST

@KansasCity
1) Oklahoma (25-2) vs. 16) Long Beach St (13-12)
8) Ohio St (17-7) vs. 9) BYU (19-6)

@Portland
4) Marquette (23-4) vs. 13) Creighton (23-6)
5) Arizona St (20-5) vs. 12) Davidson (21-6)

@Philadelphia
3) Villanova (21-5) vs. 14) American (19-7)
6) Butler (22-4) vs. 11) Wisconsin (16-9)

@Greensboro
2) Duke (21-5) vs. 15) Radford (14-10)
7) UCLA (20-7) vs. 10) South Carolina (19-6)
 
Next 4 in:
Minnesota
LSU
Siena (in as autobid)
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
Utah St (in as autobid)

Last 4 in:
UNLV
Davidson (in as autobid)
San Diego St
Michigan
Oklahoma St

Last 4 out:
Penn St (19-8 )
Providence (16-11)
Cincinnati (16-10)
Maryland (17-9)

Next 4 out:
USC (16-10)
Kansas St (18-8 )
St Mary's (20-5)
Notre Dame (14-11)

In play:
Georgetown (14-11)
Miami (15-10)
Creighton (in as autobid)
New Mexico (17-10)
Temple (16-9)
Texas A&M (18-8 )
UAB (19-8 )

We've seen stranger things happen:
Northern Iowa (17-10)
George Mason (18-9)
Illinois St (22-6)
Baylor (15-10)
Mississippi (15-11)
Mississippi St (16-10)
Northwestern (14-10)

Should feel OK about NIT chances:
St Joseph's (14-11)
Rhode Island (20-8 )
Niagara (22-7)
Northeastern (17-10)
Nebraska (16-9)

NIT bubble. On average, these spots will disappear:
Seton Hall (13-11)
Tulsa (17-9)
Wisconsin-Green Bay (20-7)
Cleveland St (17-9)
Nevada (15-10)
Auburn (16-10)

.com tournament

North Carolina St (15-10)
Bradley (15-12)
St Louis (16-10)
Miami OH (15-10)
Hofstra (18-9)
Washington St (14-13)
Boise St (16-9)
Evansville (14-11)
Houston (17-8 )
Portland (17-9)
Arkansas-Little Rock (20-7)
Wright St (16-12)
Drexel (15-11)
Wyoming (14-10)
Rider (16-11)
Duquense (15-9)

CBI:
Stanford (15-10)
Drake (16-12)
UTEP (16-10)
Central Florida (15-10)
New Mexico St (14-12)
Wisconsin-Milwaukee (13-12)
Old Dominion (18-9)
Binghamton (17-8 )
Belmont (17-9)
Liberty (16-9)
Akron (16-10)
Charleston (19-7)
Troy (16-11)
LaSalle (14-11)
VMI (16-7)
Kent St (15-11)
 
How do I turn off these freaking smilies

Bradley should feel good about having some type of postseason, but the NIT is probably too much of a longshot right now. The MVC should send 5 total postseason teams, maybe 6.

As you can see, for Creighton, there's a mess of mediocre BCS teams in their way. They'll absorb more losses, so keep winning, Creighton. You can see a pretty defined group of mediocre BCS teams to root against down the stretch.
 
Break it down!

Big Televen 7
Big East 7
ACC 7
SEC 5
Big 12 5
Pac 10 5
MWC 4
A-10 2


If held at gunpoint:

I'd say the Big 10 loses one (a couple too many bubble teams)
The Big East gains one (many bubble teams on the wrong side right now, odds are someone plays their way in)
ACC holds at 7 - the odds of Maryland or Miami playing their way in equals the odds BC and VT plays their way out
SEC, BIg 12, and Pac 10 all with 5. Big 12 has 4 locks and several marginal teams - odds are one break through the rest fall. Pac 10 could get to 6 with USC. The SEC will get 5 and I won't like it.
The MWC probably loses either UNLV or SDSU
Mid majors gain 1 at large berth - law of averages say one of Gonzaga, Butler, Davidson, and Siena will use an at large berth. I'll say nay on St Mary's.
 
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