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TAS Bracketology

pfunk880 said:
That's not allowed, is it?
Click to expand...

You are correct. In that case, it's really too bad the mighty illini won't be playing in the postseason!


III. Principles for Placing Teams into Championship Bracket
The priority for the committee will be to achieve the best-possible competitive balance in each region, while placing teams as close to their areas of natural interest as possible.

Eight levels are established (i.e., the seeds, 1 through 8 ) in the bracket that transcend each of the four regions, permitting evaluation of four teams simultaneously on the same level.

Each of the first two teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions.

An institution may be moved one bracket line from its true seed line (e.g., from a No. 6 seed to a No. 7 seed) when it is placed in the bracket if necessary to meet the principles.

Conference teams shall not meet each other prior to the regional final unless a ninth team is selected from a conference.
 
ISU looks really good, and just may need a QF win now.

SIU? In their extremeties. An at-large bid would come with 14 losses. Only 1 team has pulled off an at-large with 14 losses - a Georgia team, playing in the runaway #1 conference, with the #1 SoS.
 
My observations after tonight is that ISU clinched an at-large bid with that win at SIU, so long as they beat either MSU or InSt in the Valley quarterfinals (who gets the #6 seed anyway, InSt?). ISU is now 4-4 against the RPI top 50 (2-0 against #50 Creighton now), beat a very good SIU at Carbondale, and finished two games ahead of their nearest competition. Oh, and they have that #34 RPI, which while in recent years is no guarantee of an invite, should be more than enough for a second place team.

I can't rule out SIU yet, even with a decent 5-7 RPI top 50 record and third place finish, 14 loses without the Valley autobid would be pushing it, even for a BCS conference, let alone the Valley.

Still, if Bradley (or heaven forbid someone else) wins the tourney, three bids looks good for the Valley.
 
MacabreMob said:
MVC = 2 bids

Maybe 3

IMO
Click to expand...

Well I'll take two bids after where the conference was about a month ago. I'm just saying that I believe we now have two teams in at-large contention now that ISU has separated themselves from the pack a bit. Not what I thought would happen after tonight, but that's why they play the games.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
You know what we could use? A Bradleyfans selection committee. I'd be interested to see what the collective minds here could come up with.
Click to expand...

Any way we could organize this, mods? I think this is a fun idea. We could have people select who should be in (including seeding). I could create another excel sheet that would calculate our board's overall average seedings and place teams in/out and up/down on the board accordingly. I'm sure we'd need to set more parameters, but this could be fun!
 
BUBraves2006 said:
Any way we could organize this, mods? I think this is a fun idea. We could have people select who should be in (including seeding). I could create another excel sheet that would calculate our board's overall average seedings and place teams in/out and up/down on the board accordingly. I'm sure we'd need to set more parameters, but this could be fun!
Click to expand...

We have the chat room....
 
You can't be more of a lock than these teams:

Ivy: Cornell (19-5)

Automatic bid conferences and their leaders
Summit: Oral Roberts (20-8 )
MAAC: Siena (19-10)
WAC: Boise St (21-7)
Patriot: American (18-11)
Big West: CS-Northridge (18-8 )
Atl Sun: Belmont (21-8 )
Big Sky: Portland St (18-9)
AEast: UMBC (20-8 )
OVC: Austin Peay (21-10)
N'east: Robert Morris (25-6)
Big South: NC-Asheville (17-8 )
MEAC: Morgan St (18-9)
SWAC: Alabama St (13-9)
Southland: Lamar (14-9) * in as leader, only Stephen F Austin harbors an at-large hope


The battle for the 1 line:
Tennessee (25-3), Memphis (28-1), Duke (25-3), North Carolina (27-2), UCLA (25-3), Texas (23-5), Kansas (25-3)

The battle for a top 3 seed:
Xavier (25-4), Georgetown (24-4), Louisville (24-6), Stanford (24-4), Wisconsin (24-4), Vanderbilt (24-5), Notre Dame (22-6), Purdue (23-6), Connecticut (23-6), Indiana (24-5)

Other locks:
Drake (23-4), Michigan St (23-6), Clemson (20-7), Washington St (22-7), Marquette (20-7), Gonzaga (23-6), Butler (27-3)

90% locks, it would take a monumental collapse:
BYU (23-6), Mississippi St (20-8 ), USC (18-10), South Alabama (23-5), St Mary's (23-5)

Should feel relatively safe barring an inconvenient 3-game losing streak:
Oklahoma (19-10), Pittsburgh (20-9), Miami (19-8 ), West Virginia (20-9), UNLV (21-6), Kansas St (17-10)

Bubble, safe for now:
Baylor (19-8 ), Arkansas (19-9), Kent St (23-6), Illinois St (21-8 )

Next 4 in:
Texas A&M (20-8 )
Massachusetts (19-9)
Davidson (22-6) *in as autobid
Arizona St (18-10)
Virginia Tech (17-11)

Last 4 in:
VCU (23-6) *in as autobid
Maryland (18-12)
Florida (21-8 )
Western Kentucky (22-6)
Kentucky (16-11)

Last 4 out:
New Mexico (22-7)
Syracuse (17-12)
St Joseph's (17-10)
UAB (21-8 )

Next 4 out:
Southern Illinois (17-13)
Texas Tech (15-13)
Dayton (18-9)
Villanova (17-11)

On the board:
Ohio St (17-12), Temple (16-12), Rhode Island (21-9), Stephen F Austin (19-4), Houston (21-7), Florida St (17-12)

Really in trouble, barely alive:
Oklahoma St (15-12), Wake Forest (16-11), Seton Hall (17-12), George Mason (20-10), Creighton (19-9), Mississippi (19-9), Ohio (18-10)
 
Locks:
Siena (21-10), San Diego (20-13), Cornell (21-5), Winthrop (20-11), Belmont (24-8 ), Austin Peay (24-10), George Mason (22-10), Drake (26-4), Davidson (24-6)

Current projected one-bidders, with their leaders:
Big Sky - Portland St (19-9)
SWAC - Alabama St (16-9)
MEAC - Morgan St (19-9)
AEast - UMBC (22-8 )
N'east - Sacred Heart (18-13)
Summit - Oral Roberts (25-6)
WAC - Utah St (22-9)
S'land - Lamar (15-10) *I suppose we're STILL calling SFA a candidate for now
Big West - UC-Santa Barbara (22-7)
Patriot - American (20-11)

The battle for the 1 line:
North Carolina (29-2), Duke (26-4), Texas (25-5), Kansas (27-3), UCLA (27-3), Memphis (30-1), Tennessee (27-3)

The battle for protected seeding:
Clemson (21-8 ), Stanford (24-6), Washington St (23-7), Drake (26-4), Georgetown (25-4), Louisville (24-7), Notre Dame (24-6), Connecticut (24-7), Wisconsin (26-4), Purdue (24-7), Indiana (25-6), Xavier (26-5)

Other locks:
USC (20-10), Kansas St (19-10), Oklahoma (21-10), Kentucky (18-11), Mississippi St (21-9), Vanderbilt (25-6), Marquette (21-8 ), Michigan St (24-7), BYU (25-6), Butler (28-3), Kent St (25-6), Gonzaga (25-7)

Should be good to go, but we've seen crazier things happen:
Miami (20-9), Baylor (20-9), West Virginia (21-9), Pittsburgh (21-9), South Alabama (24-6)

Current tally: 24 teams for 11 spots:

Above the fracas for now:
UNLV (22-7), St Mary's (24-6), Illinois St (23-9)

Next 4 in:
VCU (24-7)
Massachusetts (21-9)
Arkansas (21-10)
Texas A&M (21-9)

Last 4 in:
New Mexico (24-7)
Oregon (18-12)
Arizona (17-13)
Western Kentucky (24-6)

Last 4 out:
Virginia Tech (18-12)
Syracuse (19-12)
Maryland (18-13)
Ohio St (19-12)

Next 4 out:
Arizona St (19-11)
St Joseph's (18-11)
Florida (21-10)
Dayton (20-9)

On the board
Temple (18-12)
Stephen F Austin (21-4)
Mississippi (21-9)
UAB (22-9)
Villanova (19-11)


NIT here:
NC-Asheville (19-9)
Robert Morris (26-7)

17 NIT spots left. These figure to at least be locks.
Southern Illinois (17-14), Creighton (20-10), Houston (22-8 ), Florida St (18-13), Wake Forest (17-12), Texas Tech (15-14)

11 NIT spots left. Here's your bubble, and about half of these teams will be gone with the NIT autobids anyways.
Nebraska (18-11), Oklahoma St (15-14), Seton Hall (17-14), Minnesota (18-12), Cleveland St (19-11), Rhode Island (21-10), San Diego St (18-11), Akron (21-9), Washington (16-15), Wright St (21-10), Charlotte (18-12)


16 CBI spots?
Georgia Tech (14-16), Cincinnati (13-17), Providence (15-15), Valparaiso (19-13), Ohio (19-11), Richmond (16-13), UTEP (17-12), Sam Houston St (18-7), Nevada (19-10), Boise St (21-8 ), New Mexico St (18-13), IUPUI (22-6), Bradley (17-15), California (15-14), CS-Fullerton (20-8 ), CS-Northridge (19-9)

Realistic CBI options beyond this. Make your own judgements.
Virginia (15-14), Boston College (13-16), North Carolina St (15-15), Missouri (16-15), Alabama (16-15), Penn St (15-15), MiamiOH (15-14), Western Michigan (19-11), Duquense (17-12), St Louis (15-14), Northern Iowa (17-14), Missouri St (16-16), Indiana St (14-16), Air Force (14-13), Utah (15-13), Central Florida (16-14), Pacific (20-9), Georgia Southern (18-12), Rider (23-9), Wagner (23-8 ), Brown (19-9), NC-Wilmington (20-13), Old Dominion (17-15)
 
EAST

@Raleigh
1) North Carolina (29-2) vs. 16) Alabama St (16-9)/Sacred Heart (18-13)
8 )Kent St (25-6) vs. 9) Pittsburgh (21-9)

@Denver
4) Indiana (25-6) vs. 13) George Mason (23-10)
5) Washington St (23-7) vs. 12) VCU (24-7)

@Omaha
3) Wisconsin (26-4) vs. 14) American (20-11)
6) BYU (25-6) vs. 11) Arizona (17-13)

@Birmingham
2) Georgetown (25-4) vs. 15) Winthrop (20-11)
7) Mississippi St (21-9) vs. 10) Illinois St (23-9)


WEST

@Anaheim
1) UCLA (27-3) vs. 16) Lamar (15-10)
8 )Kentucky (18-11) vs. 9) Baylor (20-9)

@Little Rock
4) Notre Dame (24-6) vs. 13) Siena (22-10)
5) Purdue (24-7) vs. 12) Texas A&M (21-9)

@D.C.
3) Xavier (26-5) vs. 14) UC-Santa Barbara (22-7)
6) Marquette (21-8 ) vs. 11) New Mexico (24-7)

@Raleigh
2) Duke (26-4) vs. 15) Austin Peay (24-10)
7) Oklahoma (21-10) vs. 10) St Mary's (24-6)



MIDWEST

@Little Rock
1) Memphis (30-1) vs. 16) UMBC (22-8 )
8 )Kansas St (19-10) vs. 9) South Alabama (24-6)

@Denver
4) Drake (26-4) vs. 13) Oral Roberts (22-8 )
5) Vanderbilt (25-6) vs. 12) Oregon (18-12)

@D.C.
3) Connecticut (24-7) vs. 14) Utah St (22-9)
6) USC (20-10) vs. 11) Arkansas (21-10)

@Little Rock
2) Texas (25-5) vs. 15) Portland St (19-9)
7) Gonzaga (25-7) vs. 10) Miami (20-9)


SOUTH

@Birmingham
1) Tennessee (27-3) vs. 16) Morgan St (19-9)
8 )Davidson (25-6) vs. 9) West Virginia (21-9)

@Anaheim
4) Stanford (24-6) vs. 13) San Diego (20-13)
5) Clemson (21-8 ) vs. 12) Western Kentucky (24-6)

@Tampa
3) Louisville (24-7) vs. 14) Cornell (21-5)
6) Butler (28-3) vs. 11) Massachusetts (21-9)

@Omaha
2) Kansas (27-3) vs. 15) Belmont (24-8 )
7) Michigan St (24-7) vs. 10) UNLV (22-7)



Break it down!
Big East 7
Pac 10 6
Big 12 6
SEC 5
Big 10 4
ACC 4
WCC 3
MWC 3
Sun Belt 2
CAA 2
MVC 2
A-10 2
 
I am forging a personal moratorium on "Bracketology", since all the speculation in the world
doesn't matter anyway, as most of the teams in the top 65 are a lock, only a few are on the bubble,
and the selection committee completely confounds everyone every year anyway.
 
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