Locks:
MVC - The Drake (26-4)
Horizon - Butler (29-3)
CAA - George Mason (23-10)
WCC - San Diego (20-13)
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (25-6)
Patriot - American (20-11)
MAAC - Siena (22-10)
S'ern - Davidson (25-6)
Summit - Oral Roberts (23-8 )
N'east - Mt St Mary's (18-14)
Ivy - Cornell (21-5)
Big Sky - Portland St (21-9)
BSouth - Winthrop (20-11)
OVC - Austin Peay (24-10)
Atl Sun - Belmont (24-8 )
Projected one bidders and their leaders
SWAC - Mississippi Valley St (14-15)
MEAC - Morgan St (21-9)
AEast - Maryland-Baltimore County (22-8 )
S'land - Texas-Arlington (16-11)
Big West - CS-Fullerton (22-8 )
WAC - New Mexico St (20-13)
The battle for the 1 line, in order:
North Carolina (30-2), UCLA (29-3), Tennessee (28-3), Memphis (32-1), Texas (26-5), Kansas (28-3), Duke (27-4), Georgetown (27-4)
Georgetown has to enter the conversation, at least for now. Tennessee has a trump card, and Texas' quality wins dwarf their bad losses. UCLA is the only lock for a 1 seed, this late in the going.
The battle for protected seeding (in no particular order):
Clemson (22-8 ), Xavier (27-6), BYU (27-6), Louisville (24-8 ), Connecticut (24-8 ), Stanford (26-6), Pittsburgh (24-9), Notre Dame (24-7), Wisconsin (27-4), Michigan St (25-7), Purdue (24-8 ), Indiana (25-7), Washington St (24-8 ), Drake, Butler
This is a mess. Purdue could go anywhere from 4 to 9 and I wouldn't be surprised. Enter Pitt into the conversation. Enter BYU into the conversation.
Other locks:
Vanderbilt (26-7), Mississippi St (21-10), Oklahoma (22-10), Marquette (23-9), West Virginia (23-10), Gonzaga (25-7), USC (21-11)
You cannot reward Vandy with a protected seed. No way.
16 spots left. These teams are near locks, barring some boggling selection committee logic:
Kent St (27-6) - bidstealer alert focused on Akron now
UNLV (24-7) - a clear #2 team in a multibid league
Arkansas (21-10) - got the win it needed to secure itself
Kentucky (18-11) - strong finish, and I think extenuating circumstances actually help give them benefit of the doubt in case
Kansas St (19-11) - that RPI is getting into fledgling territory...
Above the "last 8 in" line:
Miami (21-10) - 8-9 in the ACC, but too much else is working in their favor for them to miss
St Mary's (24-6) - too many wins, too good a resume to deny
South Alabama (24-6) - I don't care what the talking heads say. they're in
Davidson* (listed here for seeding purposes)
Western Kentucky* (listed here for seeding purposes)
Next 4 in:
Texas A&M (23-9) - should be good to go. when everyone else was busy losing this week, they beat KSU
St Joseph's (21-11) - you beat Xavier twice in a week, you deserve to go, period
Illinois St (23-9) - they're going to make it, god ******
VCU (24-7) - I'm a mid-major homer
Last 4 in:
Baylor (20-10) - I'm trying hard to ignore that loss
Virginia Tech (19-12) - again - while everyone else crapped the bed, they beat Miami
Arizona (18-14)
Oregon (18-13) - Pac 10 roulette! Difference with them and other bubble teams? Their losses came to better teams - other schools lost to 12 seeds and the like
Last 4 out:
Massachusetts (21-10) - Flameout!
Ohio St (19-13) - At least those 2 home wins keep them alive. they acted like they wanted in
Temple (20-12) - The A-10, somewhere, riots
Villanova (20-12) - There's enough here to backdoor their way in
Next 4 out:
Arizona St (19-12) - 82 RPI! Good God. ASU had a non-con SoS strategy - schedule Maui, and load up on cupcakes and lean on Maui. Well, Illinois, LSU, and Princeton @ Maui. LOL ASU
---You can cut the list off here. No one else has a realistic shot. But....for completeness...---
Mississippi (21-10)
New Mexico (24-8 )
Maryland (18-14)
Other teams on the Big Board. They won't make it, but you'll see them creeping up on some "last 8 out" boards:
Creighton (20-10) - sure, why not?
Southern Illinois (17-14) - sure, why not?
Florida St (19-14)
Florida (21-11)
Dayton (21-10) - if they got their player back, this would be a completely different story
UAB (22-10)
Syracuse (19-13)
Stephen F Austin (22-5) - their RPI imploded to 72 with that single loss, so that's the end of that
Charlotte (20-13)
NIT autobids:
Robert Morris (26-7), UNC-Asheville (19-9), UC-Santa Barbara (22-8 ), Utah St (23-10), Alabama St (17-10)
10 NIT spots left. The 10 I say go (0-2 bids may disappear today, depending what happens elsewhere)
Wake Forest (17-13), California (16-15), Rhode Island (21-11), Houston (22-9), Akron (23-9), Cleveland St (19-12), Seton Hall (17-15), Texas Tech (15-15), Oklahoma St (16-15), Minnesota (20-12)
My call for your 16 CBI bids, based on deservedness:
Nevada (20-11), Boise St (23-8 ), IUPUI (23-7), Georgia Tech (15-17), San Diego St (19-12), Wright St (21-10), Valparaiso (19-13), Nebraska (19-12), Bradley (17-15), Alabama (17-16), Washington (16-16), Richmond (16-14), Ohio (19-12), Tulsa (20-12), NC-Wilmington (20-13), Western Michigan (20-12)
As you can see, some quality teams are going to spill in here. That's why the CBI was created.
An extensive list to CBI candidates. To save a few of you the time and effort.:
North Carolina St (15-16), Virginia (15-15), Boston College (14-17), Cincinnati (13-18 ), Providence (15-16), Utah (16-14), Air Force (14-14), Illinois-Chicago (17-15), Rider (23-10), Niagara (19-10), Marist (18-14), LoyolaMD (19-14), Missouri (16-16), Illinois (15-18 ), Penn St (15-16), Indiana St (14-16), Northern Iowa (17-14), Missouri St (16-16), MiamiOH (17-15), UTEP (19-13), Southern MIss (15-14), Old Dominion (17-15), Middle Tennessee St (16-15), Duquense (17-13), St Louis (15-15), LaSalle (14-17), Georgia Southern (18-12), UNC-Greensboro (19-12), Wagner (23-8 ), CS-Northridge (19-10), Pacific (20-10), Brown (19-9)
