CBS Sports college basketball expert Jon Rothstein wrote this column about what he sees happening if the NCAA does pass a new rule allowing all NCAA college players the ability to transfer one time without any penalty or any required sit-out period. Such a proposal will be considered and possibly voted on by the NCAA later this summer.
All 5 of Rothstein's potential outcomes are bad for mid-major schools.
https://collegehoopstoday.com/index....fer-exception/
Here are the 5 effects he sees happening, along with some quotes clipped from his column-
1)
More tampering - "Handshake lines would become home visits,” one high-major assistant said recently. “We’d be recruiting off each other’s teams every single day.”
players...would be poached from mid-major programs...
Michigan associate head coach Phil Martelli said last week. “Coaches would go back to hating each other. It’s just not good.”
2)
MId-majors would essentially become junior colleges- In essence, mid-major programs with highly productive players would have no chance of keeping a nucleus intact.
“One player makes such a big difference.”
“There’s a supply and there’s a demand,” former Drexel coach Bruiser Flint added.... “If you’ve got a really good player... you’ve got no shot of keeping him.”
It will be nearly impossible for mid-major basketball to exist the way it has for decades if the NCAA passes a rule where transfers can play immediately without a penalty. The new junior college?
3)
More roster turnover- We’re going to see a lot of turnover,” Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery said... “It’ll change the complexion of the sport.”
The most successful teams in college basketball have always been those who have had great continuity over the course of time. This would be extremely hard to accomplish if a one-time transfer waiver was put into effect.
4)
Program building would become obsolete- ...Duke has shifted from winning with older and more experienced guys to assembling the best talent it can from what’s available in that year’s freshman class.... (now) everyone else will likely have to follow suit at some point.
5)
The potential elimination of waivers- This is a good thing. Why have some players gotten waivers over the past few years while some haven’t?
Tom Izzo said of the waiver process... "We’ve got a lot of people making up stories" (to try to get the NCAA to approve a waiver).
All of these changes, if they happen, would likely harm the mid-major schools like Bradley.
Personally, I don't see the NCAA eliminating waivers. I think they like being the king-makers, and having the exclusive, arbitrary right to make those decisions, so they can favor some schools over others and not have to owe anyone an explanation.
