How many more can Loyola lose before their at-large chances go away? They are a good team but I don't see them making it through the rest of the valley season without another loss or two. I would love for a 2 bid Valley again but it might not happen this year, next year will be exciting though.
The
NET ratings, which the NCAA introduced prior to the 2018-19 season is the main tool that the NCAA Selection Committee uses for evaluating teams for NCAA at-large bids and seeding.
In the 3 seasons that the NET has been used so far, the lowest rated team in the NET to get an at-large bid was 73. Last season, Michigan State got an at-large bid with an NET of 70. Yes, the selection committee is more likely to favor the schools from the top 5 or 6 conferences, and no doubt an MVC team with a NET of 70 wouldn't an at-large bid.
But, Loyola's NET, despite some recent losses, is still at 30. I think if they can stay around 30, or maybe in the 30's, they still have a strong chance at getting an at-large bid.
This year, there is reason for optimism about at-large bids for mid-majors. Several of the Power 5 or 6 conferences appear to have fewer teams that are certain candidates for at-large bids than in recent seasons.
Example- Look at the ACC standings and NET rank-
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketba...conference/ACC
Last year, the ACC got 7 NCAA bids. This year, there is only 1 ranked team (Duke), and only 2 teams that look like they will end up with fewer than double-digit losses (Duke and Wake Forest). Duke's NET (11) is the only ACC team with a better NET than Loyola (30). The 1st place team in the ACC, Notre Dame, has a NET of 63! Wake Forest, tied with Duke for 2nd place, has a NET of 32. And only 4 teams have fewer than 10 losses and an RPI under 70.
Perennial NCAA teams like Virginia, Louisville, and Syracuse have little chance of an at-large. Even North Carolina picked by some to win the ACC, could be left out.
The PAC-12 is similar. There are only 3 teams right now that are locks. Last year, they got 5 bids.
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketba...ference/Pac-12
The Big 12- last year got 7 bids, this year they could get as few as 5 (let's hope)-
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketba...ference/Big-12
And even some non-power 5 conferences, that usually get multiple bids, don't have a lot of strong at-large candidates.
The American Athletic Conference has only 1 team with an NET in the top 50 (Houston at 3)
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketba...rican-Athletic
So there's hope for a multiple bid year for the MVC, but knowing the NCAA selection people, I wouldn't bank on it yet.
The NCAA has a long history of twisting and ignoring their own rules every year to make sure their buddies at the big schools get more than their share of at-large bids. And a history of screwing mid-majors every year like the MVC teams. Recall that when the RPI was the main selection criterion, the best RPI team ever to be excluded from an at-large bid was Barry Hinson's
Missouri State team with an RPI of 21 in 2006, while Air Force got a bid despite an RPI of 50!. And no Power 6 conference team with an RPI of 40 or better was ever excluded. There have been many major conference teams with RPI's as bad as in the 60's that got at-large bids.
And as recently as 2017,
Illinois State was screwed out of an at-large bid despite finishing the MVC regular season with a 17-1 record and a tie for the MVC regular season championship, losing in the MVCT championship game, finishing 28-7 overall, and an excellent RPI of 33.
Bradley was snubbed in 2007 with 20 wins and an RPI of 38, while Stanford got a bid that year with an RPI of 63!
So the bottom line is the NCAA will screw the MVC if they can.
