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2 Bid Valley

Stryker said:
ISUb's losses to SIU and ISU were not as big of factors as you think last year. As you pointed out, there were plenty of other teams that got at-large bids with worse NET scores and plenty of losses, some of them even bad losses. The difference is that those teams you listed that got at-large bids last year also had some Q1 wins. Meaning they "proved" to the committee that they were in fact good enough to compete with other good teams.

ISUb lost to Alabama, Michigan State, and Drake twice last year. That is why they were snubbed. ISUb did not beat a good team last year. This is now a requirement to go dancing no matter what. If they had beaten either Alabama or MSU they would have been in. If they had not lost twice to Drake I think they would have been in. It is basically the same situation BU is in this year. No chance of beating a good team. So even if we win out, a win over Drake at least once more is the only additional resume builder we have.

I know it sucks the dance works this way now, but that is just how it is.
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That just isn't true. Direct from the NCAA website:

The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

It will be very difficult to get an at-large with multiple Quad 3/4 losses without multiple Quad 1 wins to make up for them (both of which are tough for a mid major due to the scheduling). ​That loss to Illinois state was a Quad 4 loss and SIU was Quad 3 loss. I believe last year Indiana State had only had one Quad 1 win, which those Quad 3/4 losses negated. Indiana State was almost a lock until they picked up that Quad 4 loss. That 100% put them on the bubble which combine that with a high number of bid stealers and they got bumped out.

I know everyone talks about it but NET rankings don't directly correlate to the NCAA tournament selection, it is only for classifying the Quadrants.
 
It's interesting to look at NET rankings between two mid-majors: Bradley and Saint Mary's.
RankTeamConferenceOverallRoadNeutral Q1 recordQ2 recordQ3 recordQ4 record
63BradleyMVC17-35-13-1 0-04-36-07-0
23Saint Mary'sWCC17-35-02-2 0-05-34-08-0
​
SOS favors SMC but it's not crazy. Obviously they will have a few potential Q1 wins with two games against Gonzaga, @Santa Clara, @ORSt, and @USF. Our only potential Q1 win can come at Drake right now. But to look at those profiles at this point in time, I don't see 40 spots difference.
 
BradleyBiz said:
It's interesting to look at NET rankings between two mid-majors: Bradley and Saint Mary's.
RankTeamConferenceOverallRoadNeutral Q1 recordQ2 recordQ3 recordQ4 record
63BradleyMVC17-35-13-1 0-04-36-07-0
23Saint Mary'sWCC17-35-02-2 0-05-34-08-0
​
SOS favors SMC but it's not crazy. Obviously they will have a few potential Q1 wins with two games against Gonzaga, @Santa Clara, @ORSt, and @USF. Our only potential Q1 win can come at Drake right now. But to look at those profiles at this point in time, I don't see 40 spots difference.
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BradleyBiz is correct. As of now, Bradley has not played a Quadrant 1 game. The only potential Quad 1 game left on our schedule will be the road game at Drake. And even that would be in jeopardy if they lose a game or two and their NET moves higher than 75 (Drake's NET is currently 66 today). It is very unlikely that any other MVC team will be able to improve their NET rank enough to get to into Quad 1 territory by the end of the regular season.

What qualifies a Quadrant 1, 2, 3 or 4 game?.... Here is the definition from the NCAA website - https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...text=Using the quadrant,selection and seeding.

"The quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking. based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.
  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding."
​
 
Da Coach said:
And one other factor... sometimes bubble teams' fate will be dependent on how many "bid-stealers", who are otherwise unworthy of an at-large bid, get auto-bids by upsetting the favorites in conference tournaments. Indiana State was set to get an at-large bid last year, but lost out to a couple such "bid stealers on the final week of conference tournaments.
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A really good point here DC - and I forgot about that. I really think they were the last 1 or 2 teams left out and those upsets for Auto-bids hurt their chances.
 
Tommy said:
Does anyone really want to see the 7th, 8th, sometimes lower seed from a conference in the end of year tournament? I don't.

I'm mostly talking to myself as none of this matters.
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HECK NAH, Tommy!!! Heck. NAH!! ;)

Fwiw, when you talk to yourself, Tommy, people listen! (But I don't know if they listen when you actually talk TO them. LOL) ;)
 
Hardly. BU needs to concentrate righting the ship and making the adjustments needed to be competitive the rest of the season. Can Bradley make the adjustments needed?
 
With Drake moving today to 20-2, and with BU's at-large chances all but vanished, the "two-bid league" discussion in my opinion narrows down to Drake only dropping one more Valley game and losing in the finals of the MVC tourney, hopefully to Bradley. That would give the Bulldogs a record of 29-4 and -- regardless of Quad 1 and NET crap -- make them hard to keep out of the dance.
 
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