2021 Bracketology

[Da Coach]

There is quite a difference in the projected seeding for the MVC teams in the latest ESPN and CBSSports Bracketology

Today's ESPN/Joe Lunardi version of Bracketology has Loyola in as a #8 seed as the assumed Automatic Qualifier. He has Drake in as an at-large team, and one of the "last 4 in" as a #11 seed playing in the First Four.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

CBSSports/Jerry Palm also updated their bracketology today. They have Loyola as a #12 seed and Drake also a #12 seed as the next-to-last team in.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

 

[Tommy]

I predict Drake gets snubbed. I don't think they'll win the tournament and I don't trust the NCAA to give them the cred they deserve.

 

[Da Coach]

I predict Drake gets snubbed. I don't think they'll win the tournament and I don't trust the NCAA to give them the cred they deserve.

You might be right. In the end, a lot depends on how many conference upsets occur where a team that would never have been considered for an at-large bid wins a conference automatic bid. That forces the NCAA selection committee to delete a team for each such auto-bid going to an otherwise undeserving team.
Recall the 2016-17 season when both Wichita State and Illinois State finished with 17-1 records.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/standings/_/season/2017/group/18

ISU lost to Wichita State in the tournament championship game, and finished the season with an overall record of 27-6 and an RPI of 33. But because of a number of upsets in other conference tournaments, and a bunch of at-large bids going to teams who would not have gotten a bid otherwise, as well as the usual at-large bids going to teams from the Power 6 conferences who finished with double-digit losses (example: Vanderbilt was 19-15 with an RPI of 71, but got an at-large bid), ISU had to settle for the NIT.
IMO, that is likely to happen again this year to Drake (NET currently 41)

 

[epistibrain]

Recall the 2016-17 season when both Wichita State and Illinois State finished with 17-1 records.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/standings/_/season/2017/group/18

Just came across a reference to that Wichita State team, in the context of a related topic in this thread, the seeding of Loyola:

“If the bracket were seeded today based on the BracketMatrix aggregate, Loyola would be the second-best double-digit seed of the past 20 seasons, trailing only — of course — Wichita State. The 2016-17 Shockers entered the NCAA tournament as the eighth­-best team in the country, according to Pomeroy’s metrics, and yet they earned a No. 10 seed.” (From a couple of weeks ago here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...better-than-the-one-that-made-the-final-four/ )

Ratings vary, of course, KenPom might be wrong and the Net ranking might be wrong and the polls that have Loyola top 25 might be wrong—but to believe they deserve a 12 seed you have to believe that they are all wrong, by a lot. I’m not even aiming this criticism at the “bracketologists” as their goal is to guess what’s going to happen, and I fear they might be right. But I’m genuinely curious about why (assuming no early loss this weekend). Something to do with the MVC not getting respect, probably, but something more. My guess is that the decision makers weigh “big wins” too heavily compared to playing well over a long period versus good but not elite competition.

 

[Tommy]

But I'm genuinely curious about why (assuming no early loss this weekend). Something to do with the MVC not getting respect, probably, but something more. My guess is that the decision makers weigh big wins too heavily compared to playing well over a long period versus good but not elite competition.

It's all about the Benjamin's and the power conferences pull in the viewers, so they make sure their ranking systems favor them, and if comes down to making a choice, the power conference team will almost always get the nod. It most certainly has to do with weight of competition, but how are mid-majors supposed to get rated higher if none of the power conference teams will play them?

All I know is this, if an MVC team finishes the year 24-3 and can't make the tournament based off that, we are really going to have a difficult time ever getting anything more than our tournament champ into the show. It's criminal, really.

 

[epistibrain]

All I know is this, if an MVC team finishes the year 24-3 and can't make the tournament based off that, we are really going to have a difficult time ever getting anything more than our tournament champ into the show. It's criminal, really.

I enjoyed the game Saturday for the first time in a while, but yeah, I was thinking that it would be a shame if they used what was only their third loss to justify keeping Drake out.

 

[BUSongwriter]

Look at the names in the First Four Out and Next Four Out: Duke, Indiana, Memphis, Syracuse. I would love to see Drake in, but seeing those names makes me confident in predicting that when it comes to selection time, Drake will not be dancing. The "eye test" will go to the teams that are on national TV week after week. And no, it's not fair and it drives me nuts every year.

I can't imagine that more people would want to watch two teams that finished in the lower half of their conference play than seeing a team that gets no national exposure but has had a great year try to beat a team that has all the budget and exposure advantages. The David vs. Goliath matches are the most interesting, but the committee seems to actively work against those.

 

[Tommy]

I enjoyed the game Saturday for the first time in a while, but yeah, I was thinking that it would be a shame if they used what was only their third loss to justify keeping Drake out.

Totally agree. Basically, if they don't make the tournament, what we can take from it is that the regular season doesn't mean anything at all. Completely meaningless (except for practicing for the conference tournament).

 

[Chris]

Do you think the current incarnation of Drake is one of the 68 best teams in the country, though? If Drake had all their players, then sure, but if they are looking to get demolished in the first round, that frankly makes the Valley look worse. They just got handled by the Bradley bench, what are they going to do as a 13 seed?

 

[Da Coach]

Do you think the current incarnation of Drake is one of the 68 best teams in the country, though? If Drake had all their players, then sure, but if they are looking to get demolished in the first round, that frankly makes the Valley look worse. They just got handled by the Bradley bench, what are they going to do as a 13 seed?

First, I would argue that Drake has proven that they are one of the top 68 teams. Despite the NCAA revising their RPI and NET evaluation tools seemingly every year to make it harder for non-Power 6 teams, Drake currently has a NET of 41. Shouldn't that be good enough to make it into a 68-team tournament?

And, the NCAA Tournament has never been the 68 best teams. Every year there are a bunch of 100+ RPI teams, and some 200+ RPI teams in the tournament.
The point is that when a team plays by the NCAA's rules and ends with an NET ranking in the 40's, they deserve a chance to participate.
Each team will get close to $2 million for each game they appear in. So even if Drake loses their first game, they will add almost $2 million to the MVC, which will be split with all the other teams. And for each game they advance, it adds another $2 million. Their appearance and the money it raises also increases the visibility of Drake and the rest of the MVC, and helps boost recruiting and builds and maintains better facilities. Conferences like the MVC can really use that money, as opposed to the Power 6 conferences who always get 5, 6, 7, or more teams in the tournament. Those Power 6 conferences have massive TV contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, so the few extra million from the NCAA Tournament is barely noticeable to the big boys, while it can help keep smaller conference afloat.
The NCAA keeps changing the rules every year to make it harder for teams like Loyola, Drake, Bradley, etc. The Big Boys, who control the NCAA, really don't like sharing even a dime with the smaller conferences. We've seen teams from the MVC in past years get snubbed despite having RPI's in the 20's and 30's, while at-large bids go to Power-6 teams with RPI's in the 50's, 60's, and even the 70's. Is that fair?

 

[Tommy]

Do you think the current incarnation of Drake is one of the 68 best teams in the country, though? If Drake had all their players, then sure, but if they are looking to get demolished in the first round, that frankly makes the Valley look worse. They just got handled by the Bradley bench, what are they going to do as a 13 seed?

I think teams should be awarded for excellence in the regular season. If Drake loses in the quarterfinals of the MVC tournament, they would still finish at 24-4 for the year, and I think if a Valley team isn't worthy of a slot with that type of overall record, then we can plan on our conference champ being the only team ever going to the dance in the future.

Whether Drake is one of the best 68 teams in the nation now is completely subjective and that is not the way things should be determined regardless. To punish a team because of injuries when they had a stellar regular season would be beyond unfair and would make the regular season practically meaningless.

And Drake might get thrashed in the first round, but we'll never know if they don't get a chance to go. Sadly, I think the committee that makes these decisions will be thinking the same way you have stated and that Drake will get left out, but still hoping I'm wrong.

 

[Fetz86]

If Drake’s two best players are still projected to be out injured then it’s easy to leave them out of the tournament, especially if they lose today or tomorrow they can point to them not being the same without them.

 

[Fetz86]

The committees have a history of using injuries two justify lowering seeds or leaving teams out. Most famously K-Marts Bearcats.

 

[Da Coach]

Bracketology update, including games through 3/7/21-
ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Loyola as a #8 seed, and he still has Drake in as a #12 seed playing in the First Four-
Drake is among the "last four in", which means they are at risk of getting bumped out if the remaining conference tournaments produce any unexpected auto-bids, or if any of the "first four out" or "next four out" teams get moved up.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

CBS's Jerry Palm updated his bracket projection this morning, and has Loyola as a #10 seed. He also has Drake as a #12 seed playing in the "First Four" part of the bracket. He also has Drake as one of his "Last four in". Teams among the "last four in" at this stage have frequently been left out by past selection committees.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

 

[Da Coach]

Despite a few upsets yesterday- Georgetown winning the Big East, Georgia Tech winning the ACC, Oregon State winning the Pac-12,
ESPN's Joe Lunardi still has Drake in the tournament as one of the last 4 in, ahead of Wichita State, St. Louis, Colorado State, Memphis and others who were among the first ones left out.
He has Drake as a #11 seed playing in the First Four, and Loyola as a #8 seed-
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology


However, CBSSports' Jerry Palm is not so kind to the MVC. He now has Drake OUT of the tournament. They are listed among the First Four Out, despite their NET of 45, and Wichita State, with a NET of 72, is IN as an at-large. Palm has Loyola, despite a NET of 10, as a #10 seed, which is ridiculous.

 

[bigjimmy]

I would hope that the committee would take into account that in 3 of Drake’s loses that they didn’t have their best player Hemphill. Unfortunately the Valpo and BU loses could hurt their chances

 

[Da Coach]

Joe Lunardi tweeted that if Cincinnati (NET 115) wins today and steals the AAC automatic bid, it would knock Utah State out of the tournament and not Drake.
https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/stat...09013283352580

 

[BUSongwriter]

The insane thing about Jerry Palm having Loyola as a 10 seed is that a NET 10 team that won its conference and won its conference tournament and is both an AP and coach's poll Top 20 team would NEVER be favored in a game throughout the NCAA tournament should it play out as seeded. That is just crazy.

 

[Tommy]

The insane thing about Jerry Palm having Loyola as a 10 seed is that a NET 10 team that won its conference and won its conference tournament and is both an AP and coach's poll Top 20 team would NEVER be favored in a game throughout the NCAA tournament should it play out as seeded. That is just crazy.

Thank you! But they've got room for 7 Big 10 teams in the top 4 seeds! Can't say it enough - broke system that is built on making money and not on fairness.