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2022-23 Preseason MVC picks

One thing that will help UNI's RPI is their non-conference schedule. "Seven of the 10 nonconference games are teams that were in the top 100 in the NET last year", according to Head Coach Ben Jacobson-
https://twitter.com/EliotClough/stat...90671514492928
UNI schedule- https://unipanthers.com/sports/mens-...le?path=mbball

And more about Austin Phyfe from the UNI beat writer- Phyfe spoke to media at the UNI Media Day today about his health struggles. In addition to dealing with long Covid symptoms, he developed blood clots in his lungs, and underwent emergency surgery this past June. He said he has recovered well from that episode, but has been on blood thinners since then. The blood thinners are why his doctors have not yet cleared him to begin contact activities, because of a risk of internal bleeding. Coach Jacobson "added that if Phyfe comes back, he believes it will be around Christmas". Unclear if that date would be when he would begin contact activities or be able to play in games. Either way, it seems his contributions this season will be very limited. Really a tough break for Phyfe.

Note that UNI plays at Bradley on November 30, the first MVC game for both teams. They play again February 4, 2023, in Cedar Falls.

Article from Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier-
https://wcfcourier.com/sports/colle...cle_e581bfa3-872c-5aa2-a815-8f881816e6ee.html
 
The MVC is scheduled to release the coaches & media 2022-23 Preseason Poll, and the Preseason All-MVC picks tomorrow.
 
More injury news, this time regarding the Valley favorite Drake-
All-MVC Point guard, and last year's 2nd leading scorer Roman Penn is reportedly still dealing with residual problems related to his foot injury, and he will not be ready to start the season with the team. They are hoping for a possible return in mid-November, but there is no specific timetable. Penn initially broke a bone in his left foot in February of 2021. He missed the last 7 games of the 202-21 season, including Drake's run in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Backup point guard Joseph Yesufu replaced him in the starting lineup for those final 7 games, and played great, which lead to Yesufu leaving Drake and transferring to Kansas.
Despite missing the final month of the season, Penn was named to the 1st team All-MVC after the season, and was runner-up for POY to Cameron Krutwig.

Penn returned and played very well for 1st place Drake in the 2021-22 season, but he reinjured the foot in December, 2021. He missed a month, but returned and played pretty well the rest of the season. He was named to the 3rd team All-MVC, though it was reported that his foot was still bothering him. It was believed that the offseason rest would help the injury finally heal. But his foot pain flared up again, and he sat out their public intra-squad scrimmage last Wednesday. Today, the team announced he will miss the initial part of the season.
https://twitter.com/drakedawgs/status/1582157899887153155

Another of their veteran guards, D.J. Wilkins, has been nursing a knee injury, and has missed practices, and also sat out last week's intra-squad scrimmage. It is hoped that with rest, Wilkins will be ready to go when the season starts on November 9.
10/12/22 Tweet from Drake beat reporter for the Des Moines Register- https://twitter.com/AlyssaHertel/status/1580263078364864513

Drake's scrimmage is tonight, and fans will notice some players missing. DJ Wilkins (knee), Roman Penn (foot), Nate Ferguson (shoulder) and Issa Samake (knee) will not play tonight. Garrett Sturtz (ankle) might.

Garrett Sturtz and Nate Ferguson have recovered from their injuries, and returned to practice today-
https://twitter.com/drakedawgs/status/1582158033890971650
 
If Penn ends up missing the season or a significant part of the Valley season would Drake still be the favorite? Who is Drake's backup to Penn and is he capable? And is there any pg depth after the backup?
 
PhiAlphaBoy said:
If Penn ends up missing the season or a significant part of the Valley season would Drake still be the favorite? Who is Drake's backup to Penn and is he capable? And is there any pg depth after the backup?
Click to expand...

When Roman Penn missed the end of the 2020-21 season and Joseph Yesufu replaced him, Drake didn't miss a beat. In fact, Yesufu immediately took over as Drake's top scorer, leading them to the championship game of the MVC Tournament (which they lost to Loyola), and to a first round win over Wichita State in the NCAA Tournament.
This season, they are not so deep at point guard. They will still probably be the MVC favorite, but their point guard options are limited. D. J. Wilkins has played some point guard, and he could fill in, but he has been nursing a knee injury, though he is expected to be back by the start of the season. After that, their options are Redshirt-Freshman Connor Enright who has never played a minute of D1 basketball, Redshirt-Sophomore Okay Djamgouz, who has played very sparingly in the last 2 seasons and who isn't really a true point guard, and a couple walk-on guards.
Drake does not have an easy non-conference schedule. If the target for Penn returning is the MVC season, it could still be a problem with some tough games that could determine their chances for an at-large bid.- Schedule
 
Article from the Missouri State beat writer-
Missouri State's Donovan Clay as the MVC Player of the Year? Why the Bears think it can happen
https://www.news-leader.com/story/sp...r/69582871007/

For the record, last season Donovan Clay averaged 8.4 ppg (ranked 38th in the MVC), 6.1 rpg, and he shot 31.3% from three (26.0% for his career).
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...0/donovan-clay

I agree that his scoring numbers will likely increase now that Gaige Prim and Isiaih Mosley are gone, but POY is a longshot. But, Clay is quite confident. In the article, he says-

Clay has two years of eligibility remaining including this year....
"I wanna make this my last year," Clay said. "I really wanna go to the league this year [the NBA] and play pro basketball. That's where I'm supposed to be."
 
Well you've gotta say something for confidence, but I would be beyond shocked if he did either of those things.

POY - Rienk Mast. He's going to be a beast this year.
 
Here is a pretty good website that ranks every D1 team using advanced metrics. His methods use a lot of stats from last year's teams, but corrects for players who have transferred-
https://www.barttorvik.com/

His ranking of MVC teams-
1) Drake 59
2) Bradley 98
3) SIU 107
4) Indiana State `146
5) Valparaiso 170
6) Illinois State 183
7) Belmont 199
8 ) Missouri State 203
9) Murray State 206
10) Northern Iowa 214
11) Evansville 322
12) UIC 344


Another independent blogger who rates every Division I team-
https://lbenz730.shinyapps.io/recspe...tball_central/

Here is how he ranks the teams that he identifies as MVC teams-
1) Murray State 33
2) Missouri State 55
3) Belmont 92
4) UNI 100
5) Drake 115
6) Bradley 121
7) SIU 124
8 ) Illinois State 166
9) Valparaiso 185
10) Indiana State 252
11) Marshall 261
12) UIC 265
13) Evansville 310

Here is his methodology- https://lukebenz.com/post/hoops_methodology/

I respect anyone who spend many hours using metrics and mathematical formulas to make these kinds of predictions. But obviously there are some serious flaws in his system.
First, his most obvious flaw, he has Marshall designated as an MVC team. Probably an inadvertent mistake, but an error like that calls into question everything else.
Secondly, he appears to place too much weight on stats and results from last year's and earlier teams, without correcting for players who transferred. As a result, he ends up rating Murray State, Missouri State, Belmont, and UNI, teams that lost most of their key players to transfer, way too high, and ahead of the teams everyone else predicts to be at the top of the MVC this season. Maybe that corrects as the season progresses, but it throws his preseason ratings off.
 
Another blog with a preseason preview of the MVC-
https://bracketeer.org/inside-the-b...on-preview-22-23-part-one-the-one-bid-leagues

They pick Drake as the regular season champion, and SIU as the MVC Tournament and auto-bid winner.
They name Indiana State as the darkhorse team.
Regarding Bradley: The Bradley Braves will also be dangerous by March, presuming they return to full strength.

Other picks-
Player of the Year: Tucker DeVries - Drake
Newcomer of the Year: Seneca Knight - Illinois State
 
Here's another ranking, this one of "Under the Radar" teams. And as always, take it with a grain of salt.

Under the Radar College Basketball Top 25 for CBB Review, Preseason
https://cbbreview.com/2022/11/06/cbbreview-under-the-radar-top-25-best-mid-majors/

They list Drake tied for #9 on his list of "Under the Radar" teams, the only MVC team in his Top 25.
However, several other MVC teams got votes, Belmont, Southern Illinois, Murray State, and Missouri State.
The list is compiled by a Big East writer, and none of the voters have any connection to the MVC.
Maybe that explains why teams that ranked 6th, 3rd, 8th, and 4th in the MVC Preseason Poll got votes, but the team ranked 2nd (Bradley), didn't get a single vote from any of the "experts" voting. :roll:
 
ESPN's Joe Lunardi predicts the order of finish for all the Division I conferences, plus his national rankings for each team-
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...-363-division-men-college-hoops-teams-2022-23

Here is his MVC predictions-
MISSOURI VALLEY
  1. Drake (58 )
  2. Southern Illinois (113)
  3. Bradley (119)
  4. Belmont (140)
  5. Missouri State (141)
  6. Northern Iowa (144)
  7. Murray State (148 )
  8. Indiana State (149)
  9. Valparaiso (199)
  10. Illinois State (201)
  11. Illinois-Chicago (273)
  12. Evansville (307)
 
Da Coach said:
ESPN's Joe Lunardi predicts the order of finish for all the Division I conferences, plus his national rankings for each team-
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...-363-division-men-college-hoops-teams-2022-23

Here is his MVC predictions-
MISSOURI VALLEY
  1. Drake (58 )
  2. Southern Illinois (113)
  3. Bradley (119)
  4. Belmont (140)
  5. Missouri State (141)
  6. Northern Iowa (144)
  7. Murray State (148 )
  8. Indiana State (149)
  9. Valparaiso (199)
  10. Illinois State (201)
  11. Illinois-Chicago (273)
  12. Evansville (307)
Click to expand...

Seems these predictions all divide the Valley into 3 tiers with DU, BU and SIU consistently at the top.
 
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