4 Valley games left. Anything decided?

[bigjimmy]

About the only thing decided so far in the Mo Valley race is ISU Red will finish 9th and Evansville will finish last. Other than that? Will AJ Green's broken nose play a part in how UNI finishes their season? Does he play at ISU Blue in their next game? Some guys have no issues with wearing a mask and some guys it affects them so we'll have to see. Here's the schedule for the last 4 games:

UNI 11-3: at ISU Blue, Home to SIU & Evansville, Finish at Drake

Loyola 10-4: Home to ISU Red, at Missouri State, Home to Drake and Finish at Bradley

Bradley 9-5: Home to Missouri State, at Valpo & ISU Red and finish at home against Loyola

SIU 9-5: Home to Evansville, at UNI, Home to ISU Blue and Finish at Missouri State

Valpo 7-7: At Drake, Home to Bradley & Missouri State and finish at ISU Blue

Missouri State 7-7: At Bradley, Home to Loyola, at Valpo and finish at Home against SIU

Drake 7-7: Home to Valpo, at ISU Red & Loyola and finish at Home with UNI

ISU Blue 7-7: Home to UNI, at Evansville & SIU and finish at Home against Valpo

As long as we finish 2-2 we'll be no worse than 4th. If we finish 4-0 I think we'll finish 2nd. Obviously the race for 1st through 8th will go down to the last game.

 

[houstonbrave]

Have we actually seen that AJ broke his nose ? Sorry if I missed it but have not seen it definitively. Given the play I would not be surprised but have not seen that it was broken.

 

[braves16]

https://wcfcourier.com/sports/colle...cle_dfe6c327-bc55-5ca3-b4e7-8bee9fff4ba3.html

This article says he broke his nose.

 

[Bradley3342]

Watching the game it appeared he dove for a loose ball and when he did a Loyola player dove on top of him and smashed his face even harder down on the floor. Looked pretty bad. Anyone have any video of it?

 

[Go_Braves]

Watching the game it appeared he dove for a loose ball and when he did a Loyola player dove on top of him and smashed his face even harder down on the floor. Looked pretty bad. Anyone have any video of it?

Go the the provided ESPN web site and then fast forward to the 1:21:35 mark in this video as shown in this picture. That is Green laying on the court just after the injury .https://www.espn.com/watch/?id=ee6e1...6-172df42b82c5

 

[Go_Braves]

https://wcfcourier.com/sports/colleg...e9fff4ba3.html

This article says he broke his nose.

I wonder if Green is going to wear a face mask? I read that broken noses take up to 3 weeks to completely heal. The 3rd week mark is the MVC Tournament weekend.

 

[Go_Braves]

About the only thing decided so far in the Mo Valley race is ISU Red will finish 9th and Evansville will finish last. Other than that? Will AJ Green's broken nose play a part in how UNI finishes their season? Does he play at ISU Blue in their next game? Some guys have no issues with wearing a mask and some guys it affects them so we'll have to see. Here's the schedule for the last 4 games:

UNI 11-3: at ISU Blue, Home to SIU & Evansville, Finish at Drake

Loyola 10-4: Home to ISU Red, at Missouri State, Home to Drake and Finish at Bradley

Bradley 9-5: Home to Missouri State, at Valpo & ISU Red and finish at home against Loyola

SIU 9-5: Home to Evansville, at UNI, Home to ISU Blue and Finish at Missouri State

Valpo 7-7: At Drake, Home to Bradley & Missouri State and finish at ISU Blue

Missouri State 7-7: At Bradley, Home to Loyola, at Valpo and finish at Home against SIU

Drake 7-7: Home to Valpo, at ISU Red & Loyola and finish at Home with UNI

ISU Blue 7-7: Home to UNI, at Evansville & SIU and finish at Home against Valpo

As long as we finish 2-2 we'll be no worse than 4th. If we finish 4-0 I think we'll finish 2nd. Obviously the race for 1st through 8th will go down to the last game.

I read that in January 2019 the Missouri Valley is going to use each teams NET score to decide any tie breakers. So even if Bradley beats Loyola at home for their last regular season game and ties Loyola for second in the MVC standings - Bradley may likely still end up third in the MVC Tournament bracket. And if both Loyola and Bradley end 2nd and 3rd in the MVC standings (or visa versa) - chances are very good that these 2 teams will face each other in their second game Saturday round. 2019 MVC Tournament "Deja Vu".

 

[Da Coach]

Here is the preseason poll results alongside the current standings-

The most notable thing is that virtually everyone was wrong about Missouri State. Instead of leading the MVC, they are a .500 team. They are currently tied for 5th and have the 8th best overall record. Also, SIU, instead of being last where they were picked, they are tied for 3rd. The other 8 teams were picked not far from where they are at this point, though UNI has overachieved and Evansville, due to unforeseen events, is buried in last place.
But the 2019-20 Booby Prize goes to whoever gave Illinois State a 1st place vote!

With 4 games left, Evansville has clinched either the #9 or #10 seed (most likely 10th)
Illinois State has clinched a Thursday play-in game, but their seed could possibly be as high as 7 or as low as 10. The only way they could avoid Thursday is if they win their last 4 games to end 7-11 (highly unlikely) and three of the 7-7 teams lose their final 4 games to create a 4-way tie for 6th place. However, because all those four 7-7 teams have a number of games with each other, meaning there will be teams who pick up wins, there is no mathematical way 3 of them can lose every remaining game and end up 7-11. So ILSU looks like they will finish either 8th or 9th, most likely 9th.
Then there will be a battle among 4 or more teams to stay out of the bottom 4. The 7th and 8th seed teams will almost certainly come from the group of 4 teams that are currently 7-7. However, it could still be possible for a team like Bradley or SIU to fall into the bottom 4 if they lose their final 4 games.

 

[Bradley3342]

Thanks.Go Braves. Looked pretty bad

 

[algotrader]

The only thing I've decided is that our basketball program is worth watching again. The Glasser effect seems to have finally, fully gone away.

 

[Bradleyfan1]

The last two weeks are going to be fire. Arch Madness is shaping up to be fantastic as always. No reason we cant go 4 and 0. Go BU. Missouri St seems to be getting it going, i am so glad this game is in Peoria. Id like to avoid them in St Louis. Im hopeful for the one or two seed and a friday match up with the Redbirds then beat UNI on sat and Loyola on Sunday for a change.

 

[Tommy]

Here is the preseason poll results alongside the current standings-

The most notable thing is that virtually everyone was wrong about Missouri State. Instead of leading the MVC, they are a .500 team.

Everyone except fans of the MVC. Just goes to show you that the pundits aren't smarter than anyone else, and knowledge is more prevalent with those who are actually watching the games!

 

[Mikovio]

It looks virtually impossible to meet up with ISU Red. They’re pretty locked in the 9 seed, and we’re pretty locked in either the 2-3, which is the opposite side of the bracket. If we get the 2, we’d draw the winner of the 7-10, which would be Evansville and one of the 7-7 logjam teams. We could slip to the 4-5 game but meeting them would then require them beating UNI.

It’s pretty incredible that we always seem to be on opposite sides of the bracket and haven’t met in STL since 2001. But run into Loyola and Drake all the time.

 

[Stryker]

It’s pretty cool to see 8 out of 10 teams with .500 or better conference records and the same 8 teams have above .500 overall records as well. Not sure how often that happens.

 

[BUBalum05]

I was just introduced to Matt Hackman's work listening to the most recent March to the Arch podcast. He does MVC tournament probabilities as the season winds down. He has BU pretty firmly as a 3 seed. Check out his twitter @mjhackman for the latest each week.
BTW, the March to the Arch podcast has been a great way to keep tabs on the Valley all season. I encourage everyone to check it out, even if you do just fast forward to the mentions of BU to get outsider perspectives on what they see in this team (both guys are scared of BU's potential right now with EC back). I hope Baker and Vance can keep it going for years to come.
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...594818050?s=20

 

[basketball nut]

Here is the preseason poll results alongside the current standings-

The most notable thing is that virtually everyone was wrong about Missouri State. Instead of leading the MVC, they are a .500 team. They are currently tied for 5th and have the 8th best overall record.

Right now Missouri State is playing better and I have to wonder if they still might be a team to reckon with. That was a big win at ISU Blue Saturday. I hope we aren't overlooking them Wednesday night because we might find ourselves in trouble. Might not be as easy as it was in Springfield.

 

[Tommy]

Right now Missouri State is playing better and I have to wonder if they still might be a team to reckon with. That was a big win at ISU Blue Saturday. I hope we aren't overlooking them Wednesday night because we might find ourselves in trouble. Might not be as easy as it was in Springfield.

They've certainly improved, but so have with with Eli back. We'll find out on Wednesday night!

 

[Da Coach]

I was just introduced to Matt Hackman's work listening to the most recent March to the Arch podcast. He does MVC tournament probabilities as the season winds down. He has BU pretty firmly as a 3 seed. Check out his twitter @mjhackman for the latest each week.
BTW, the March to the Arch podcast has been a great way to keep tabs on the Valley all season. I encourage everyone to check it out, even if you do just fast forward to the mentions of BU to get outsider perspectives on what they see in this team (both guys are scared of BU's potential right now with EC back). I hope Baker and Vance can keep it going for years to come.
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status...594818050?s=20

Thanks for posting that. I have posted his computations the last couple years. I personally don't like to start looking at those precise kind of calculations until we get down to the last couple games. It gives me a headache considering all the permutations!

But it does give us an idea where Bradley might finish. There is still a tiny chance Bradley could finish 1st, but also an even smaller chance they could drop to 7th and have to play Thursday!

 

[Da Coach]

I read that in January 2019 the Missouri Valley is going to use each teams NET score to decide any tie breakers. So even if Bradley beats Loyola at home for their last regular season game and ties Loyola for second in the MVC standings - Bradley may likely still end up third in the MVC Tournament bracket. And if both Loyola and Bradley end 2nd and 3rd in the MVC standings (or visa versa) - chances are very good that these 2 teams will face each other in their second game Saturday round. 2019 MVC Tournament "Deja Vu".

Yes, you are right. The MVC Tiebreaker was changed prior to last season's tournament, and the tiebreaker now uses the NET to break ties if the head-to-head competition doesn't favor one team over the other.
https://mvc-sports.com/news/2018/12/18/arch-madness-revises-tiebreaker.aspx

Two-way Ties
1. Records in head-to-head competition are compared, with the higher seed going to the team that has won the most games against the other.
2. If head-to-head competition does not break the tie, the deadlock will be broken using the NCAA Evaluation Tool (N.E.T.), as published by the NCAA on the morning after the final regular-season MVC games (March 3, 2019). The team with the better N.E.T. rating will receive the higher seed.

Multiple Ties
1. If three or more teams are tied, regular-season competition among the tied schools shall be pooled into a “mini round-robin.” Teams shall be ranked according to their position in such a round-robin.
2. If head-to-head competition does not break the tie, the deadlock will be broken using the NCAA Evaluation Tool (N.E.T.), as published by the NCAA on the morning after the final regular-season MVC games (March 3, 2019). Team will be seeded based on their N.E.T. rating.

Here are the current NET rankings-
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/conference/Missouri-Valley

As of now, Loyola's NET (94) is slightly better than Bradley's (103), but it's possible those numbers could still change.
Of course, Bradley must win the final game of the schedule against Loyola to achieve a tie in the head-to-head competition for the NET to be relevant.

 

[Go_Braves]

After the February 19 - Wednesday night OT win over Missouri State - if Bradley wins just 1 more game - and hopefully they will win their final 3 games... But if they win just 1 more game - there is no way Bradley will finish in the bottom 4 teams going into the MVC Tournament. Bradley finishing either second or third - the stars will likely line up for a Bradley Loyola second round game and a Bradley Northern Iowa final game - but that can change in the blink of an eye. If Mo State plays either Loyola or Northern Iowa Friday or Saturday in the 2020 MVC Tournament - I will definitely tune into that game as well.

GO BRAVES ..... !!!