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A thorough analysis of non-conference scheduling

T

TheAsianSensation

New member
With the non-con out of the way (outside of BracketBuster), let's take a gander at each MVC school and see how they did and what they did to help themselves and a conference at a whole. I'll do a post on each school.

Of course, a big part of the big picture is how you do against the schedule, but for the purposes of this thread, let's delve into the intent of each schedule and game and see if the Valley did good or bad. Based on current conference RPIs, the Valley did about "average".

Flaming of ISU's schedule will be encouraged :lol:
 
Let's start with a bottom team.

Evansville (5-4) SoS 343

Home games:
Evansville 76, SIU-Edwardsville (2-11) 46
Butler (8-4) 64, Evansville 60
Evansville 61, Alabama St (0-8 ) 57
Evansville 75, Georgia Southern (1-10) 58
Evansville 84, Tennessee-Martin (0-9) 63

Away games:
Miami(OH) (3-9) 82, Evansville 58
Evansville 91, Tennessee Tech (4-6) 90
Western Kentucky (6-4) 63, Evansville 57
Austin Peay (6-6) 71, Evansville 68

The good: Getting Butler at home, obviously, and getting WKU means two teams that should pile up wins in conference play, and therefore make that SoS rise.

The bad: A SWAC school. It will be repeated ad naeseum throughout the thread, but avoid the SWAC at all costs. Their SoS numbers are TOXIC. At least they picked ASU, a team that can pile up wins in that dreck of a conference. Also, scheduling FOUR OVC teams is not a good idea either. In fact, it may be worse than scheduling a SWAC school.

Analysis: Miami(OH) was the return BracketBuster game, and in addition to losing bad to them, Miami(OH) themselves are bad, which is a bad break. But notice something: Coming off a relatively surprising season last year (8-10 in the Valley, 17-14 overall), they seemed to have a couple more cupcakes than needed. No power conference schools. I like the top 3 of Austin Peay, Butler, and WKU for the sked, but 3 other OVC teams cancel all that out. A bit unlucky Georgia Southern and Miami have regressed.

My grade: D. They're not going to be frontrunners and have to schedule down, I get that. But the OVC is a bottom 7 conference, and having 4 games against them means absorbing all their bad toxic SoSs in the RPI. I understand proximity is a factor, but at least try to get some MAC games, or even Horizon games instead. This is also the one school I'd like to see go get a buy game against a power conference school. They stay away from an F for the WKU/Butler duo, which admittedly are good scalps.

Even though the SoS is 343, they did get a bit unlucky with a couple teams. I truly don't think this is a bottom 5 SoS in the country. More like a 300 SoS. Which isn't exactly praise, of course.
 
Next up:

Indiana St (7-3) SoS 63

Tournament games (preseason NIT):
LSU (8-3) 56, Indiana St 45 *true road game for ISU
Indiana St 76, Wisconsin-Milwaukee (6-5) 63
Coastal Carolina (7-2) 77, Indiana St 62
Indiana St 64, Western Kentucky (6-4) 63 *true road game for ISU

Home games:
Indiana St 65, Colorado St (7-5) 60
Ball St (5-5) 68, Indiana St 63
Indiana St 60, Oral Roberts (6-6) 54
Indiana St 72, IUPUI (7-5) 59

Away games:
Indiana St 77, Arkansas St (4-5) 72
Indiana St 55, Toledo (2-9) 54

The good: PNIT PNIT PNIT PNIT PNIT. These tournaments work MAGIC.

The bad: Considering Toledo is the return BracketBuster game, you really can't criticize anything here.

Analysis: This is why you schedule yourself in a tournament. The NIT gave them a road game at a power conference school, and while they whiffed, adding a Horizon school to the schedule is pretty good for a consolation game.

However, the real value was in the 2 extra consolation games. Now, admittedly, these things require luck sometimes. To get a Coastal Carolina team that is streaking to contention in the Big South is a tremendous bonus. And of course, there's WKU, whose benefits I already documented. The bottom line is this: ISU got 4 solid games, every single one of them with positive effect on the SoS. Not one lemon in there. Very impressive.

2 MAC schools, which isn't a bad idea (of course, one was mandatory). Just a bit unlucky there. Oral Bob is another good scheduling choice. IUPUI too. For a bottom feeder like ISU, getting games against lower division teams that will win is important - you'll have to schedule a few of them, so make sure you get the good ones. Because the bad ones are TOXIC (see Evansville for an example). Colorado St was part of the MWC/MVC thing.

4 true road games (2 of which were mandated by the PNIT). That's good also.

My grade: A. Pay attention, all lower division Valley teams. If you think you're going to be bad in any given year, print out this schedule and copy it. THIS is how you schedule when you're going to be bad. A preseason tournament to build a good SoS base. Schools like Oral Bob and IUPUI to pile up wins. Enough road games to build a good SoS base. And if you win a few of them, that's great too. But this is the scheduling philosophy teams like Evansville need to copy.

As a side note: In years past, MAC schools were good for the RPI. We may finally need to abandon this school of thought.
 
The Drake (5-7) SoS 255

Tournament games (Glenn Wilkes Classic? Who the heck is that?):
Drake 65, Georgia St (6-6) 58
Akron (8-3) 63, Drake 59 *true road game for Drake
Central Florida (6-4) 59, Drake 50

Home games:
IUPUI (7-5) 88, Drake 82
Iowa St (9-3) 90, Drake 70
SIU-Edwardsville (2-11) 60, Drake 58
Drake 72, North Dakota (0-11) 63
Drake 96, South Dakota (2-6) 81
Drake 77, Binghamton (2-8 ) 76
San Diego St (8-3) 76, Drake 73

Away games:
Drake 78, Austin Peay (6-6) 72
Iowa (5-7) 71, Drake 67



The good: The mandated games (SDSU for the MWC challenge and the Iowa games) did them well. It's nice when the hard work is done for you, no?

The bad: The Dakota stretch is unsightly, and a gutted Binghamton wasn't a good idea.

Analysis: Only 3 true road games (and 2 neutrals) in 12 games. About average, I suppose, but it does feel light, no?

They got lucky by drawing SDSU in the challenge, to be frank. VERY lucky. Obviously, they know that every year they have Iowa and Iowa St to buffer their schedule, so for them, the trick is surrounding it with games that don't hurt that schedule base. Austin Peay was the BB return game. They do get unlucky that Iowa is, well, Iowa.

So they found a tournament. The field was, well, second tier to say the least. Akron is a good team, IMO, so that's fine. UCF doesn't excite me, and Georgia St is even a bit of a drag. I understand that it's probably, from a competitive standpoint, the right call to play this tournament. However, the SoS benefits are basically a sum zero: doesn't help, but on the other hand, it doesn't hurt. So I approve. It was probably the best Drake could do.

IUPUI isn't a bad idea. However, the bottom half of the schedule is where the train runs off the tracks. The Dakota Pu-Pu platter was a terrible idea, and it looks like they got suckered into Binghamton a season after they were gutted. SIU-E is, well, SIU-E. Bad idea there too. The problem is that when the bottom falls out, it cancels out a lot of the goodwill from the top of the schedule.

Frankly, Drake didn't do much with their schedule, after knowing the 4 games they were locked into.

My grade: D+. You can't really reward them for SDSU, Iowa, and ISU when they're already put on the schedule for you. Bonus points for trying to get a tournament to help the cause, although it ended up being a zero-sum situation. Unlike most Valley teams, with the two Iowa games, they don't have to go out and find a buy game to play in, but that doesn't mean you try to cupcake your way through the rest of the schedule. They absorbed 4 terrible teams onto their schedule. That just doesn't work, regardless of the rest of your schedule.

This team, while regressing from their peak 2 years ago, is throwing away some of the goodwill they earned from their run 2 years ago. Of course, them not being as good is a big part of it.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
The Drake (5-7) SoS 255

Tournament games (Glenn Wilkes Classic? Who the heck is that?):

SIU-Edwardsville (2-11) 60, Drake 58
Drake 72, North Dakota (0-11) 63

Drake 96, South Dakota (2-6) 81
Drake 77, Binghamton (2-8 ) 76
Click to expand...

The SIU-e and N Dakota games were in the Drake Tournament.

The S Dakota and Binghamton games were in the Drake Classic.

;)
 
MacabreMob said:
Agreed! They've done the Drake Tourney since '05-'06 and the Drake Classic since '07-'08.
Click to expand...

I think it's pretty obvious Elgin should impose a ban on a Valley team hosting any such event. Pretty much everyone in the Valley can find a tournament with much better teams than the teams they currently invite to the ones they host.
 
Northern Iowa (9-1) SoS 162

Tournament games (Paradise Jam):
DePaul (7-6) 60, Northern Iowa 52
Northern Iowa 74, East Carolina (2-8 ) 68
Northern Iowa 81, Boston College (8-4) 69

Home games:
Northern Iowa 52, Northern Illinois (2-7) 45
Northern Iowa 67, Iowa (5-8 ) 50
Northern Iowa 82, Siena (8-4) 65
Northern Iowa 72, Wyoming (5-6) 54

Away games:
Northern Iowa 71, Denver (9-4) 65
Northern Iowa 63, Iowa St (9-3) 60
Northern Iowa 64, North Dakota (0-11) 41


The good: The Paradise Jam was good, but they blew a chance for it to be great. The 2 Iowa schools and Siena.

The bad: Why the hell are you playing North Dakota on the road? That's just terrible. What in the world

Analysis: This is a schedule of lost opportunity. In the Paradise Jam, Tennessee and maybe also Purdue awaited UNI in the later rounds. But instead of a Tennessee/Purdue path, they got a ECU/BC path. Which is 10x worse because ECU is flopping. Gah. BC is still a very positive SoS impact, but to absorb that DePaul loss....ick.

Somewhat of a bad break on their forced scheduling, too. Siena is flopping much worse than anyone thought (this is the return BB game) and they were forced upon Wyoming. And the Iowa schools....those are more of break-even as far as schedule benefits go.

So UNI had precious little room to actually navigate the rest of their SoS schedule. NIU is a dicey choice, but how about the decision for 2 more road games? NDU was a terrible idea, but Denver may actually win the Sun Belt. Sneaky good decision by UNI.

My grade: A-. Yes, I know. Their SoS is 162. But I'm grading on intent, and the bottom line is that UNI gave themselves a legit chance to get 2 Top 25 RPI games. Yes, they blew it on the court, but you have to put yourself in the position of having that chance to begin with, and for that, UNI gets props from me. Also a nice sneaky decision to open at Denver. NIU was supposed to be better, and when that is your 2nd easiest game, that's just fine with me. And that North Dakota decision baffles me and pushes them down from a straight A. That's really the only true sin on their schedule, and having only one sin is pretty good.

It's pretty amazing what a couple of bad breaks (Siena struggling) and one bad loss (DePaul) can do to torpedo an SoS. Some will see SoS 162 and flame, but not me. There's plenty of other places to vent anger at.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
Somewhat of a bad break on their forced scheduling, too. ...and they were forced upon Wyoming.
Click to expand...

I could be wrong, but wasn't this game already scheduled between the schools and it got put into the MWC/MVC Challenge? If this one wasn't, maybe it was the Creighton/UNM game. I don't recall. But I coulda sworn there was 1 or 2 games already scheduled.

Btw - some great stuff TAS. I enjoy reading your breakdowns.

More... MORE.... MORE!!! ;-)
 
MacabreMob said:
I could be wrong, but wasn't this game already scheduled between the schools and it got put into the MWC/MVC Challenge? If this one wasn't, maybe it was the Creighton/UNM game. I don't recall. But I coulda sworn there was 1 or 2 games already scheduled.
Click to expand...

Hmm. I know there was a couple, but I can't remember them. Umm....SIU/UNLV? Not quite sure.

Assuming it was schedued by UNI already.....I approve. Middle-of-the-road MWC team is a good team to fill a schedule with.
 
TAS as said earlier great stuff. You are doing a lot more then most of the pubs and papers out there. :D
 
A couple of addendums:

Now that I know of all those Drake tourneys, there's a fairly good chance Binghamton got scheduled before they blew up. So I'll upgrade them to a C- instead of a D+, but it's pretty ridiculous to play 3 tourneys in a season, regardless of the benefits of extra games.

And I was informed on North Dakota and South Dakota - as provisional D-1 members, they have to play a set number of games against D-1 competition as they make the move, and the NCAA sometimes apparently rewards teams that play them with financial considerations, to help the transition. If this is the case for Drake and UNI, they're forgiven to an extent.

On the subject of the MWC/MVC challenge, from what I can tell, these were the pre-existing games:

Wyoming/UNI
Creighton/New Mexico
TCU/Wichita St

Tough break for UNI, because I think they would've gotten BYU in their place. Too sexy a matchup to resist. Admittedly, I think both leagues should've waited a year on this to organize fully.
 
Missouri St (10-1) SoS 204

Tournament games? They played on 3 straight days in late November, but I can't find evidence of an actual existing tourney (I'm not looking hard, though). Looks like a 4 team round-robin:
Missouri St 70, Maryland-Eastern Shore (3-8 ) 53 (11/20)
Missouri St 72, The Citadel (4-7) 55 (11/21)
Missouri St 75, Eastern Michigan (5-5) 61 (11/22)

Home games:
Missouri St 73, Auburn (7-6) 62
Missouri St 83, Tulsa (9-3) 75
Missouri St 58, Air Force (5-5) 48
Missouri St 79, Tennessee-Martin (0-9) 51

Away games:
Missouri St 75, Arkansas-Little Rock (2-9) 62
Missouri St 75, Arkansas St (4-5) 64
Missouri St 73, St Louis (8-4) 63
Arkansas (7-5) 66, Missouri St 63


The good: Good road game at St Louis. Two SEC games, no matter if they're lower division ones. Tulsa at home. For a team predicted in the lower depths of the MVC, good solid front half of the schedule.

The bad: That oblong looking tournament.

Analysis: First, the SEC schools. Yes, those 2 teams aren't good. I know. But they're still 2 power conference teams, and this was a preseason 9th place team. Go ahead and get one in your building if you can. Go ahead and play those 2. I'm perfectly fine with it. Just recognize the Auburn win means jack crap.

MSU took a page from the upper division teams and got a couple helpful games: Tulsa and @St Louis. Two solid games that can be used as building blocks for the SoS. I like. Much like Evansville, get two games to build around.

However, the difference between UE and MSU is what they used to surround those games. UE filled it with trash. MSU filled it, with....something a little better than trash, but not that much. UALR was actually a really good team last year - I won't fault the idea of playing a road game there. Arkansas St? Ok, there's a fault.

I think the real problem is that tourney. I understand the need and want for more games, but there's negative impact on your SoS from playing that type of tourney on your home court. I guess if you're a bottom-feeder in the conference, you go ahead and play that. As it turns out, it's a bit of a killjoy. I understand these tourneys often exist for non-profile reasons, so I don't dock them too much for it. But those are the 3 types of teams you want to draw in those.

The dreadful UT-Martin? BB return game if you're curious. AFA was a fair draw for the MWC challenge.


My grade: B-. I'm taking into account expectations here. This team wasn't supposed to be nearly this good, so this makes that tournament make more sense. And no matter how bad they are, two SEC teams is a reasonable scalp, and there's two other teams on the sked that have reasonable value to the profile. I also like their willingness to go on the road. Yes, it's inferior competition, but for a "bad" team, they needed to test themselves.

The two main problems: The tournament provided negative profile value, and the "BCS" teams they got are terrible for power conference teams. But, given the expectations, those are forgivable sins to me.

They get the B- because they got quite unlucky with Tulsa and UALR slipping. This feels like a 140 SoS, not a 200. And 140 is not great, but not bad either for this type of team.
 
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