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A thorough analysis of non-conference scheduling

Tulsa is not slipping. Yes they had a dreadful performance last out in Vegas, but most teams have one or two of these a season (look at New Mexico last week at ORU). Anything short of an NCAA berth for Tulsa in March will be disappointing, and will then mean that the team underachieved. C-USA has at least 3, and maybe 4 teams that will at least be on the NCAA bubble come March.
 
Others...

Illinois St
Basketball Traveler's Tourney Nov 27,28,29
Norfolk St, SEMO, St Bonnies

SIU
Las Vegas Tourney Dec 19, 20
San Diego, San Fran

Wichita St
CBE Classic Nov 15, 18, 23, 24
Fair Dickerson, Ark-Monticello, Pitt, Iowa

Creighton
Old Spice Classic Nov 26, 27, 29
Michigan, Xavier, Iowa
 
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Creighton (5-6) SoS 117

Tournament games (Old Spice Classic):
Michigan (5-5) 83, Creighton 76
Xavier (8-4) 80, Creighton 67
Iona (8-5) 63, Creighton 55

Home games:
Creighton 78, Florida A&M (1-10) 53
Creighton 80, Arkansas-Little Rock (2-9) 65
Creighton 67, Nebraska (10-3) 61
Creighton 77, Savannah St (3-8 ) 62
Creighton 85, Houston Baptist (1-11) 56

Away games:
Dayton (10-2) 90, Creighton 80
George Mason (6-5) 75, Creighton 72
New Mexico (13-1) 66, Creighton 61


The good: Plenty. The Old Spice Classic. Very very high quality road games.

The bad: The FAMU-SSU-HBU trifecta. A tripod of SoS Death.

Analysis: I think George Mason was the BB game, and it's perfect. They also had that trip to The Pit scheduled - PERFECT. And a road game at Dayton - what a perfect, absolutely perfect 3-pack of road games for the schedule. Very well done. And Nebraska, we all know that's automatic.

And a nice job getting in the tournament. Obviously, it ends up hurting when you crap the bed in the tournament, but that tourney also had Baylor, Marquette, and Florida St in there. And Michigan was supposed to be a lot better. Just like I said with UNI - give yourself the chances for major scalps first. If you're a good team, you'll get them. But give yourself a chance. Perfect job getting this tournament.

I won't punish them for UALR for reasons described above.

So basically, the perfect schedule, with 3 games left to discuss.

Florida A&M.

Houston Baptist.

Savannah St.

There is no way you'd expect these teams on the good side of RPI 300. Sure, there's a lot of goodwill in the rest of the schedule. HOWEVER. Are you trying to torpedo yourselves? You're undoing all your hard scheduling work by putting all 3 on. I can see one of them sneaking on. But for God's sake, at least try to find RPI 175 or RPI 200 teams instead. Find healthier cupcakes.

Yes, there's degrees of cupcakes. Creighton should expect to beat everyone, say, RPI 125 and below, easily. So take your time and get RPI 200 teams in your building. Not RPI 320 teams. By scheduling these 3 teams, they undid so much brilliant work.

My grade: B. It would be A+ if you ignored the 3 cupcake games. A plus. A plus plus plus. It was that good. When you're a power like Creighton, resist the fattening cupcakes and get the lighter ones. Go on a scheduling diet, so to speak.

Their actual SoS over 100 looks worse than it is because they turned out to actually be, you know, not good. Getting Iona instead of, say, Florida St, hurt them in the SoS. A good Creighton team beats Michigan, gets two better opponents in the tourney, and are closer to SoS 75, which puts them in a very solid category.

Outside of the cupcake 3, I can't stress how BEAUTIFUL the schedule looks. It's like a work of art.
 
Tulsa Brave said:
Tulsa is not slipping. Yes they had a dreadful performance last out in Vegas, but most teams have one or two of these a season (look at New Mexico last week at ORU). Anything short of an NCAA berth for Tulsa in March will be disappointing, and will then mean that the team underachieved. C-USA has at least 3, and maybe 4 teams that will at least be on the NCAA bubble come March.
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Maybe my expectations were too high, I was thinking of stuff like a 10-1 start.

CUSA will be a 4-team breakaway. 2 or 3 into the field of 65, we'll see.
 
MacabreMob said:
Wow - ok, I guess saying 3-4 on the bubble isn't the same as saying 3-4 will get in to the NCAA. ;) Maybe the same as saying the MVC will have 3 on the bubble. :D
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Memphis, UAB, and Tulsa for sure bubble or better. UTEP may join them with upcoming games at Texas Tech and vs. BYU. As TAS says, the rest of the league is far behind those 4, which may hurt one or more of them.
 
Great Job Asian Dude! This should be mandatory reading for all Mo. Valley AD's and coaches.
Elgin needs to bring back the ol' 150 avg SOS for all Valley teams.
Keep it up.
It is work like this that seperates Bradley Fans from the others!
Thank you for your efforts.
 
FWIW, UNI scheduled the Denver series as a home/home starting last year. Denver is a place that UNI has a good portion of alumni, plus it's a commercial flight. Wyoming was scheduled as a semi-neutral/home matchup (in Casper, WY last year, at UNI this year). The NIU game is scheduled as a home/home that gets UNI into Chicagoland (for recruiting purposes), and is a bus trip. North Dakota is where UNI's head coach Ben Jacobson played ball and grew up. UND's head coach, Brian Jones also played basketball at UNI. It's a 2-for-1, with a home game coming back to CF next year.

North Dakota has a contract with Fox College Sports, so like 9 of their 12 home games are available on national television (Fox College Sports Atlantic, Pacific, or Central...UNI's game was on FCS Central), so it was also a game that UNI could be on national tv.

Bottom line, UNI knew the kind of teams they were scheduling, but in all honesty, a good portion of it was dictated by $$$. UNI can't really afford to dole out 'guarantee' games on a yearly basis. The finances are not good enough at UNI to do that. Next year, I think we do the Las Vegas Tourney where UNI will host 2 games and be in Vegas for the other 2. UNI charter flights to Wichita, Springfield, Carbondale, Evansville, and sometimes Terre Haute/Normal/Peoria (depending of if it's midweek or weekend). I think you will continue to see UNI schedule economically in the non-conference, as having built in games with Iowa/Iowa State, the MVC/MWC Challenge, Bracket Busters (current year and return game), and an exempt event, they are going to have plenty of resume builders most years. The other games are going to be of regional interest, 2-for-1's, home/homes, and cheap commercial flights only (my guess).
 
TAS, I think you're doing a great job with analysis of each team, though i have to disagree with Mo St. I think they did a very good job of scheduling and though picked to finish 9th, I could very easily see them sweeping BU as they seem to play with purpose night in and night out...something we don't do consistently at all.
 
PTTB said:
FWIW, UNI scheduled the Denver series as a home/home starting last year. Denver is a place that UNI has a good portion of alumni, plus it's a commercial flight. Wyoming was scheduled as a semi-neutral/home matchup (in Casper, WY last year, at UNI this year). The NIU game is scheduled as a home/home that gets UNI into Chicagoland (for recruiting purposes), and is a bus trip. North Dakota is where UNI's head coach Ben Jacobson played ball and grew up. UND's head coach, Brian Jones also played basketball at UNI. It's a 2-for-1, with a home game coming back to CF next year.

North Dakota has a contract with Fox College Sports, so like 9 of their 12 home games are available on national television (Fox College Sports Atlantic, Pacific, or Central...UNI's game was on FCS Central), so it was also a game that UNI could be on national tv.

Bottom line, UNI knew the kind of teams they were scheduling, but in all honesty, a good portion of it was dictated by $$$. UNI can't really afford to dole out 'guarantee' games on a yearly basis. The finances are not good enough at UNI to do that. Next year, I think we do the Las Vegas Tourney where UNI will host 2 games and be in Vegas for the other 2. UNI charter flights to Wichita, Springfield, Carbondale, Evansville, and sometimes Terre Haute/Normal/Peoria (depending of if it's midweek or weekend). I think you will continue to see UNI schedule economically in the non-conference, as having built in games with Iowa/Iowa State, the MVC/MWC Challenge, Bracket Busters (current year and return game), and an exempt event, they are going to have plenty of resume builders most years. The other games are going to be of regional interest, 2-for-1's, home/homes, and cheap commercial flights only (my guess).
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I think if budgetary concerns were part of the UNI scheduling philosophy, then they actually did a very good job. It'll be very interesting to see what kind of road games UNI can get in the future. I think the elevated status of their program could give them a chance at marquee home-and-home deals.

TAS, I think you're doing a great job with analysis of each team, though i have to disagree with Mo St. I think they did a very good job of scheduling and though picked to finish 9th, I could very easily see them sweeping BU as they seem to play with purpose night in and night out...something we don't do consistently at all.
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I still think they did a slightly above average job, having that weak of a "bottom half" of the schedule still irks me slightly. But yes, at least comparatively speaking, MSU did pretty darn good for themselves, despite winding up with an SoS on the bad side of 200.
 
Wichita St (10-1) SoS 293

Tournament games (CBE Classic):
Wichita St 80, Fairleigh Dickinson (1-12) 64
Wichita St vs. non D-1 (Arkansas-Monticello)
Pittsburgh (11-2) 68, Wichita St 55
Wichita St 74, Iowa (5-8 ) 57

Home games:
Wichita St 87, Alcorn St (0-12) 52
Wichita St 74, Texas Southern (2-8 ) 43
Wichita St 74, USC-Upstate (1-10) 45
Wichita St 80, Texas Christian (4-6) 68
Wichita St 85, Texas Tech (10-2) 83
Wichita St 69, North Dakota St (2-7) 57

Away games:
Wichita St 69, Cleveland St (2-10) 54
Wichita St 73, UMKC (5-5) 52

The good: Getting Texas Tech on your home floor is good. The intent of the CBE Classic is good.

The bad: The CBE Classic turned into a worst-case scenario. Also, I see SWAC schools. I'm sounding the alarms.

Analysis: First, the CBE Classic was a good idea, but wow, they got very unlucky. A terrible FDU team and a non-D1 to start off, and Iowa has regressed and Pitt is expected to flame out in Big East play. And, of course, the one team they don't get is freakin' Texas. Wichita St put this tourney on the schedule with the best of intentions but it unbelievable backfired and actually HURT them. Wow.

Cleveland St was a return BB game, and they're unlucky there too, because that was a sterling team last year. Not sure why they went to UMKC, but when that's your only other true roadie, that's OK.

Solid one-two punch of TTU and TCU at home.

However, the rest of that home slate. We all know how I feel about the SWAC. When you willingly put TWO of those teams on your schedule, you just might as well give up. Terrible. Atrocious. Whatever other adjective you want to use. It's a disgrace. And on top of that, USC-Upstate, a provisional D-1. Dead weight at the bottom of the schedule, sinking you into oblivion. The addition of North Dakota St just magnifies it more.

Why oh why would you willingly self-sabotage your SoS with these schools? Even if you jsut put one on there, fine. But not 3 or 4, for God's sake.


My grade: D+. I just can't put them higher when the bottom 4 games are so terrible. Their SoS is terrible, near 300. That can't be considered even average, no matter how you get there. Great job getting Tech in your building, and it's somewhat not your fault that the CBE Classic and BB backfired, but man, the bottom half of that sked is weak, and I can't give an "average" score to someone whose SoS is approaching 300.

When you're a contender to win the Valley, you need to do a much better job of filling out the bottom half of the schedule. Much better job.
 
Any way that we could bring back the River City Shootout (college edition). I'm sure that BU could get three other teams in here to get that thing up and rolling again. Also it would fill in the gap in scheduling that everyone was talking about. Really don't know what it would take, but it would be a really fun tournament. I really can't think of the last time that we had a mini in-season tournament. Anybody?
 
patrick_o'brian said:
Any way that we could bring back the River City Shootout (college edition). I'm sure that BU could get three other teams in here to get that thing up and rolling again. Also it would fill in the gap in scheduling that everyone was talking about. Really don't know what it would take, but it would be a really fun tournament. I really can't think of the last time that we had a mini in-season tournament. Anybody?
Click to expand...

Considering we're reguarly getting into other tournaments, I don't feel a burning desire to have a mini-one at home. From a profile standpoint, hosting tourneys has actually proven to be a bit toxic to the profile as well (as shown in this thread :))
 
Southern Illinois (6-2) SoS 297

Tournament games (Las Vegas, baby!):
Southern Illinois 70, San Diego (5-8 ) 68
Southern Illinois 67, San Francisco (3-10) 66

Home games:
Southern Illinois 91, Tennessee-Martin (0-9) 63
Southern Illinois 74, Illinois-Chicago (3-8 ) 64
Southern Illinois 82, Alabama St (0-8 ) 63
Western Kentucky (6-4) at Southern Illinois, Jan. 25

Away games:
UNLV (11-2) 78, Southern Illinois 69
St Louis (8-4) 71, Southern Illinois 61
Southern Illinois 86, Southeast Missouri St (3-8 ) 65


The good: A solid 2-pack on the road.

The bad: On the road at SEMO? I don't get it. A SWAC school? I don't get that either.

Analysis: Let's start with those 2 games in vegas. USF and USD end up as opponents. Not exactly sterling competition. I don't know, I guess SIU wanted the extra game, but that ended up being of little benefit to SIU. Not sure of the circumstances surrounding that tourney.

UNLV was scheduled for them and obvioulsy it worked. UIC was the BB return game. Going to St Louis was a good idea. Going to SEMO wasn't. I guess it all evens out. They also have WKU coming up, and outisde of the timing of the game, it's a good idea.

But like most Valley schools, the bottom falls out at the bottom half of the schedule. I'll save you the rant on the SWAC again, because you've heard it. Tennessee-Martin? I'd prefer to see them get something better than that. On the road at SEMO? Can't you find a better place to go to?

Here's my overlying problem: SIU used to be the notable Valley school. They were at the top. All of sudden, the last couple of years, they've stopped scheduling like it. You're a powerhouse program, act like it!

My grade: D+. An SoS approaching 300 is terrible for a name school like SIU. They need to make a bigger presence. Not all tournaments work; the Vegas one illustrates that point clearly. Two terrible teams in their building kill their RPI. Good job on WKU and St Louis, and they did get a break with UNLV scheduled for them, but they just didn't do a very good job filling out the sked. Probably should be a C-, but extra penalty for a SWAC school.

My real question is the change in scheduling philosophy once Lowery took over. It really seems they're going softer. I'd rather see them take the Creighton route. I'm probably holding SIU to a higher standard than most Valley teams. However, that's because their level of play over the course of the past decade has warranted that.
 
Bradley (5-5) SoS 68

Tournament games (Vegas, baby!):
Bradley 66, Wofford (6-7) 64 *home game
Bradley 71, Presbyterian (1-11) 58 *home game
Oklahoma St (11-1) 68, Bradley 57
Bradley 72, Illinois (8-4) 68

Home games:
Bradley 74, Idaho St (1-10) 69
Western Carolina (8-2) 75, Bradley 67
Loyola (8-2) 68, Bradley 65

Away games:
BYU (13-1) 70, Bradley 60
Bradley 63, Northern Illinois (2-7) 49
Iowa St (9-3) 87, Bradley 68

The good: BYU and Iowa St. The Vegas tournament provides 2 very good games. Western Carolina.

The bad: A couple of bad games, one absorbed because of the Vegas tourney.

Analysis: First off, the Vegas tourney. I wish there was a way not to have to absorb those 2 home games, but when the reward is OSU and UI, you absorb like a sponge. Great get to get into the tourney, and with a bit of an assist from Utah, BU comes out smelling like roses. Wofford was a lucky get as well for it, of course offset by Presby. Oh well.

BYU was the MWC game, and Loyola the BB game (don't get me started on BB last year, ugh). However, Loyola is helping the profile a lot, so maybe Les is smarter than we all think. The Iowa St series proves to be a solid move for the profile.

Everything up to this point is perfect, so let's see how they did with scheduling the other games of their own free will:

Western Carolina was a home run. Terrific job by BU on this hidden scalp. And as good as this idea was, Idaho St proved to be the opposite, and going on the road to NIU looks worse by the day. So one home run and two strikeouts to fill out the schedule.


My grade: A-. There's a luck element here, mostly by getting BYU and having Loyola end up so good. The only real penalty here is whiffing on those last 2 games (@NIU, Idaho St). But Western Carolina makes up for a lot of that, and the Vegas tourney worked to perfection.

To me, if you think you're an upper division Valley team, and you don't have the resources to schedule like Creighton, this is the schedule blueprint you want to follow. If you find a tournament and a hidden gem like WCU, you set up the exact kind of schedule base you need.

BU is admittedly a bit lucky to be able to balance out the bad with so much good, though. This does feel like an SoS closer to 100 than 50.
 
I'm saving the best for last :)

Illinois St (9-2) SoS 294 *this factors in the first Valley game. This was deep in the 300s before

Tournament games (whatever crap sponsor was paying for this tournament, all ISU home games):
Illinois St 79, Norfolk St (1-10) 66
Illinois St 93, Southeast Missouri St (3-8 ) 53
Illinois St 80, St Bonaventure (5-5) 77

Home games:
Illinois St 71, North Florida (4-7) 55
Illinois St 75, Central Michigan (3-7) 62
Niagara (9-5) 76, Illinois St 68
Illinois St 80, Grambling St (1-6) 56

Away games:
Illinois St 82, SIU-Edwardsville (2-11) 60
Illinois St 69, Illinois-Chicago (3-8 ) 65
Ohio (7-4) 75, Illinois St 57
Illinois St 73, Utah (6-7) 63


The good:

The bad: I don't even know where to begin.

Analysis: Their two best games were mandated (Niagara-BB, Utah-MWC). Not a good start. I WILL give them credit for going to Ohio and it'll be a somewhat valuable piece of the SoS. But when it's the centerpiece, oh no....

First off, this podunk little tourament they have is a waste of time. When St Bonaventure is the prize, you know it to be true. ISU, here's a hint: Look at every other Valley contender. Go look at the tournaments they're playing. Go find one of your own. Get exposure. Get real games. Do it.

Going on the road to SIUE is a waste of your time and resources. Terrible decision. Going to UIC is fine.

So, you're ISU and you've done all this bad. You have a couple of home games to help resuce your schedule. Central Michigan is a bad idea as is. But as your last two, North Florida? And Grambling?!?!?!?!?!?!? SWAC SCHOOL ALERT! PROVISIONAL D-1 ALERT! You literally could've have done any worse with your home schedule. Literally.


My grade: F. F minus minus. This is a disgrace. Two of your best three games were forced on you. Now go look at the rest of the Valley. Who else can say that? Hint: No one. Credit for Ohio, but that's the only possible thing I can give credti before.

But here's the real sin: You are an NCAA-caliber team. You have Osiris. He is getting national pub. GO OUT AND GET HIM EXPOSURE. THAT MEANS PLAYING GAMES TO GET ON TV, TO GET HIM EXPOSURE. That means tougher opponents. You're expected to be a dangerous team, not a bottom feeder. SCHEDULE LIKE ONE.

ISU scheduled like Evansville. No one cares about E'ville hurting us because they're supposed to be terrible. We care about ISU hurting us because they're expected to be one of our best teams. When team expectations are raised, the schedule should be raised appropriately.
 
Final grades:

Indiana St A
Northern Iowa A-
Bradley A-
Creighton B
Missouri St B-
Drake D+
Wichita St D+
Southern Illinois D+
Evansville D
Illinois St F

Cumulative score: C-

It averages out to C-. Below average. However, the problem with the current SoS numbers are this: Bad schedules hurt more than good schedules help. To this end, the Valley has failed this year. The bad is very, very bad, while the good is merely SoS top 70 good.

Here are the lessons I take away from analyzing each schedule:

1) Hosting your own tournament doesn't work. Illinois St, Missouri St, and Drake did this this year. Didn't help their resume one bit.

2) When you're a top contender, go find a tournament to play in. Bradley, Creighton, Wichita St, and Northern Iowa all enhanced their profile by doing so. Every serious Valley contender should do this on a consistent basis (I'm looking at you, Jank). Even Indiana St enhanced with this.

3) No more SWAC schools, period. We do a mostly good job otherwise of avoiding the toxins of the bottom tiers of D-1. But stop with the SWAC, guys. And Evansville, lay off the OVC diet, please.

4) The MWC/MVC challenge is a boon. It enhances profiles of teams who don't or can't enhance their profile elsewhere. Good safeguard.

5) Bracketbuster doesn't seem to be quite working. We got a few good games, but it seems like, on average, the return game for the BracketBuster hurts a lot more than it helps, and the lack of flexibility by being forced into the game hurts a bit. I'd revisit this if I were Elgin. We can get games comparable to BB games for the profile on our own.

6) Whither the CAA? Get them on more. Same with the Horizon. Of course, not to the point of overkill, but still.

7) If you're a top team, copy Creighton's schedling philosophy, minus those bad home games. If you're a middle of the road team, I think Bradley has the blueprint for you (not saying Bradley is an average team. Just saying that if you expect to be there, we've got the blueprint for you). If you're a bottom team, copy Indiana St's blueprint. In particular, note Indiana St. Go serve yourself as preseason NIT fodder. You never know what might happen.

8 ) I think we can do a better job of cutting worthless road games from the schedule.

9) And I think we can do a better job of making sure we fill out the schedule with, say, RPI 200 teams, not RPI 300 teams. If each teams cuts their worst home game and replaces it with an RPI 200 team, we'd be so much better off.

10) Fine Jankovich and ISU eleventy billion dollars for their efforts.

11) Bring back the old scheduling rule about SoS 150, with an addendum: change it to SoS 175, and don't include BracketBuster and the MWC Challenge in the calculations.
 
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