At Large bids

[tornado]

This is a strange year where many of the BIG conferences have far fewer teams doing well enough to get an at-large bid..so there just may be a lot of AT-LARGE bids that have to go to someone -- and maybe the mid-majors like the MVC can sneak an extra team in...

I really don't know what ESPN's Joe Lunardi is doing gioving so many at large bids to the big conferences, as their 3rd, 4th, and 5th places teams are often terrible!!!

Take for example the Big 12...
in the preseason everyone would have thought at least 5 Big 12 teams would go to the NCAA..
but now only TWO teams look like tournament teams - Texas & Kansas...
Even the 3rd place team in the Big 12, Baylor is 15-7 with some hard to defend losses..
No other Big 12 team is even currently above .500 in the league!

How about the Big Ten...despite that Lunardi has 7 teams in from the Big Ten
we're used the the Big Ten getting a minimum of 5, 6, or 7 teams in the NCAA Tournament...but NOT this year!!
Ohio State (24-0, 11-0), Purdue (18-5, 7-3), and probably Wisconsin (17-5, 7-3) are locks ..
but 4th place Illinois at 4-4, then 5th place (Penn State), 6th (Michigan State), and 7th place (Minnesota) are all now quite long shots for an at-large bid!
Everyone who thought Northwestern (14-8, 4-7) was an NCAA team was wrong.

How about ..
ACC- looks to have maybe only two or possibly 3 teams in but 4th place Boston College at 15-8, 5-4 is a long shot...
A-10 - looks to have maybe 3 teams in
Big East - at least 6 to 8 teams -- as they always get favored..and BELIEVE IT OR NOT Lunardi had 11 big East teams in right now!!
Horizon -- maybe just one team and it likely isn't going to be Butler
MVC-- one and maybe two now that the bigger conferences just don't have any real claim to many of those at-large bids
Pac-10 two and maybe 3 at the absolute most
SEC has a bunch of teams that might be there or on the bubble - Florida, 'Bama, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Vandy

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[TheAsianSensation]

I think the Big 12 will eventually get about 5. Too many good teams, and the wins in conference have to come from somewhere, so I think you'll see teams emerge as legit candidates in the next month.

Big East should legitimately get 10 teams in this year. I'll stay short of 11 and say one of Cincy and Marquette don't get in, but legitimately earned their 10 this year.

tornado, you missed the CAA in your end-of-post recap - they have a legitimate shot at 3, IMO, although the smart money says they'll get 2 bids.

 

[LittleBrave]

I just don't see how the MVC gets more than 1 At-Large bid. And that team will likely be the team that wins the Valley outright (if that happens).
You can't make much of a claim for Missouri St. - their best o.o.c. win was at home to Pacific, who is .500 in their conference (Big West - 23rd RPI conf. rank)
UNI has an outside shot, but their loss at Drake hurt. If they win out for the remainder of their league games and beat G. Mason for B-Busters, I would put them IN. (provided they win at least 1 game in St Louis)

Wichita's resume looks decent, especially in league play, as undefeated on the road so far, with every win a 10+ pt. margin. They also have 2 quality losses to add to non-conference wins vs. Virginia & Tulsa. The LSU win is looking less and less impressive though.
IMO, Wichita gets in with no trouble with a 15-3 Valley record, and 2 wins in St. Louis.

 

[tornado]

I just don't see how the MVC gets more than 1 At-Large bid. ...

But it was debatable up 'til a week or two ago that they'd even be qualified to get ONE at-large bid..
...and this is my point in this thread...
that not a whole lot of conferences have 2nd-6th & 7th place teams that seem to be as deserving as in past years...meaning a whole lot of the 35 or so at large bids are up for grabs and a strong finish by WSU & MSU might get the Valley one of them

Let's say BU wins the Valley tournament -- I can't help but think Wichita for sure is going to get an at-large bid now...
I might not have thought so a few weeks ago but now I do...........

 

[BradleyBrave]

An Insider article today mentions the '07 BU team as one with a more-than-worthy RPI (38) that didn't have enough top 50 wins to get an at-large bid. Several Valley teams of recent memory are also on the list.

 

[Braveman]

Seth Davis, this past weekend on CBS, also had the MVC as a conference that could possibly get two bids. We will see how the remainder f the slate plays out....

 

[Tulsa Brave]

Well Wichita State and Northern Iowa just pretty much lost all hope for an at-large bid.

 

[LittleBrave]

Well Wichita State and Northern Iowa just pretty much lost all hope for an at-large bid.

Yep! You can kiss an At-Large bid good-bye Shockers! Maybe you get in with a loss in the Championship game in St. Louis.
UNI is done.
Missouri St. can't lose any more.
BU only needs to win 4 more! (all in St. Louis though)

 

[TheAsianSensation]

Jesus Wichita St what the hell was THAT.

UNI, that's probably your last stand right there. WSU has time to recover, but for the love of all holy what are you doing Wichita St

 

[LittleBrave]

Jesus Wichita St what the hell was THAT.

UNI, that's probably your last stand right there. WSU has time to recover, but for the love of all holy what are you doing Wichita St

Just living up to their name, I guess.
They "Shocker"ed the world tonight! Another blow for the Valley.

This had to be the Valley upset of the year. Our win over the Salukis looks pretty good right now!

 

[Bravesfan]

I think the Big 12 will eventually get about 5. Too many good teams, and the wins in conference have to come from somewhere, so I think you'll see teams emerge as legit candidates in the next month.

Big East should legitimately get 10 teams in this year. I'll stay short of 11 and say one of Cincy and Marquette don't get in, but legitimately earned their 10 this year.

tornado, you missed the CAA in your end-of-post recap - they have a legitimate shot at 3, IMO, although the smart money says they'll get 2 bids.

The Big East gets 9, at the most. Maybe "only" 8. The "experts" say 10 to 12 bids every year, but there is enough parity in the middle that a few teams will play their way out of the tournament before the end of the season.

 

[Bravesfan]

I just don't see how the MVC gets more than 1 At-Large bid. And that team will likely be the team that wins the Valley outright (if that happens).
You can't make much of a claim for Missouri St. - their best o.o.c. win was at home to Pacific, who is .500 in their conference (Big West - 23rd RPI conf. rank)
UNI has an outside shot, but their loss at Drake hurt. If they win out for the remainder of their league games and beat G. Mason for B-Busters, I would put them IN. (provided they win at least 1 game in St Louis)

Wichita's resume looks decent, especially in league play, as undefeated on the road so far, with every win a 10+ pt. margin. They also have 2 quality losses to add to non-conference wins vs. Virginia & Tulsa. The LSU win is looking less and less impressive though.
IMO, Wichita gets in with no trouble with a 15-3 Valley record, and 2 wins in St. Louis.

Well, I seem to respond to this type of post at least once a week, but I'll say it again. The Valley was weak from 1994 to 1996, but they managed two bids those three years. The Valley was actually stronger from top to bottom (at or close to the top ten) from 1997 to 1998 when Illinois St. ran away with the conference those two years, but the Valley managed only one bid due to ISU sweeping the regular season and conference championships.

Again, my point is it does not matter how weak the conference is if you have two or three quality teams with at-large credentials. I'm not saying that the out-of-conference wins by WSU, MSU and UNI stack up to Tulsa's, SIU's and Bradley's back then, but WSU, MSU and UNI are teams to watch nonetheless. It's still too early to predict if the Valley gets more than one bid or not, but to write off the season saying there is no chance for multiple Valley bids is way too premature right now.

EDIT: OOOPS!!! I just saw that WSU lost to SIU in Wichita tonight! What the HECK was that??? I guess that makes us better than WSU since we just beat SIU in Carbondale. Okay, NOW I guess the Valley will only get one bid, but still early enough that things could change.

And someone stop Evansville! They may treading NIT territory with this win tonight!

 

[TheAsianSensation]

The Big East gets 9, at the most. Maybe "only" 8. The "experts" say 10 to 12 bids every year, but there is enough parity in the middle that a few teams will play their way out of the tournament before the end of the season.

The range of 10-12 is usually not used. The usual range for the BEast is 8-10.

They'll get to 10. Or I'll eat my hat. The resumes are too strong this year.

 

[Bravesfan]

The range of 10-12 is usually not used. The usual range for the BEast is 8-10.

They'll get to 10. Or I'll eat my hat. The resumes are too strong this year.

Oh really? (The usual range batted around each year, that is). I see at least two or three "pundits" (usually the likes of Digger Phelps or Dick Vitale) that think the Big East should get 12 to 14 teams in each year!

Maybe there's more widespread support for 10+ bids this year, but there's plenty of time for a few of these contending teams to tank before the end of the year. That conference is just too strong for all of these teams to finish above .500 in conference by the time the season ends.

Okay, hopefully I'm wrong because I don't think you will like the taste of your hat!

 

[TheAsianSensation]

Oh really? (The usual range batted around each year, that is). I see at least two or three "pundits" (usually the likes of Digger Phelps or Dick Vitale) that think the Big East should get 12 to 14 teams in each year!

Maybe there's more widespread support for 10+ bids this year, but there's plenty of time for a few of these contending teams to tank before the end of the year. That conference is just too strong for all of these teams to finish above .500 in conference by the time the season ends.

Okay, hopefully I'm wrong because I don't think you will like the taste of your hat!

I don't pay attention to most said experts.

There's definitely room for plenty of losses in that conference. But that's the problem - there really aren't many "bad losses" in that conference. Picking off 2 or 3 games against the top 6 in the conference leaves you in good shape compared to SEC and Pac 10 schools.

 

[TheGuy]

The Big East gets 9, at the most. Maybe "only" 8. The "experts" say 10 to 12 bids every year, but there is enough parity in the middle that a few teams will play their way out of the tournament before the end of the season.

I can see the other BCS teams starting to complain about the same thing we have for years, but this time I see the NCAA listening to them. Big East breakup on the horizon when the other big boys start to not like what's going on here with all of the bids.

I am pretty sure the Big East is preparing for a football breakoff regardless.

 

[tornado]

revisiting this topic...

In the power conferences, here's what we have

ACC - only 6 teams above .500, and 3 of those (Clemson, Va Tech, Maryland) have some embarassing losses and are on the bubble
Big East - a full dozen teams above .500, but five of those are definitely bubble teams like Marquette (15-9, 6-5) & they're only above .500 because DePaul, USF, and Providence are absorbing all the losses
Big Ten - only four teams above .500, the rest (like Michigan State at 14-10, 6-6 & Minn, Penn State at 5-7 are on the outside)
Big 12 - only four teams above .500
SEC - only 3 or 4 teams are locks, the rest are all pretty weak bubble teams (Georgia, Mississippi St.)
Pac 10 - only 3 teams look even close to getting bids - Arizona, then maybe Washington & UCLA

So -- last year teams 32 qualified from these six power conferences, and 36 the year before -- but possibly only 26 or 28 look to be deserving right now.
BUT -- as I have said again and again -- never underestimate the generosity of the selection Committe when it comes to BCS schools' at large bids.
I predict they will get at least 32 this year despite the weakness in many of the top conferences.


BTW -- speaking of DePaul....they just passed a milestone that goes back THREE YEARS!!!

Dating back to 2/09/08 -- DePaul has won only ONE of their last 51 Big East Conference games.
they are 1-50 in that span with their only conference win since their 2/09/08 win over USF, being a very narrow 51-50 home win over Marquette on 1/20/10.

 

[tornado]

More proof the mid-level teams in the power conferences do NOT deserve at large bids..

Maryland loses again today to go to 5-5 in the ACC
Clemson drops to 6-5 - same as Boston College
seems only 3 teams in the ACC really deserve a bid...but whattya wanna bet at 5 or 6 get one!

Kentucky loses to Vandy - they are now 5-5 in the SEC
Anyone wanna bet that they'll get a bid even if they are under .500 in the mediocre SEC??

Dayton also loses and drops to 5-6 in the A-10 and the Flyers fans are melting down...they thought they had a lock on an NCAA bid with their 12-3 non-conference record!

 

[Bravesfan]

More proof the mid-level teams in the power conferences do NOT deserve at large bids..

Maryland loses again today to go to 5-5 in the ACC
Clemson drops to 6-5 - same as Boston College
seems only 3 teams in the ACC really deserve a bid...but whattya wanna bet at 5 or 6 get one!

Kentucky loses to Vandy - they are now 5-5 in the SEC
Anyone wanna bet that they'll get a bid even if they are under .500 in the mediocre SEC??

Dayton also loses and drops to 5-6 in the A-10 and the Flyers fans are melting down...they thought they had a lock on an NCAA bid with their 12-3 nonconference record!

Great analysis of the at-large bids tornado! If the "big boys" don't end up with the usual number of bids they get, which mid-major teams will get bids? Remember, this is a year where some traditional mid-major powers are also down. Butler, Gonzaga and Memphis will most likely need to win their conference tournaments to get in. Of course that could lead to multiple bids from each conference if they do, because teams like St. Mary's and UTEP have good cases for bids. If there are a lot of mid-major upsets, that should take care of any extra bids floating around.

But I believe that two mid-major conferences outside of the A-10 will benefit the most this year. Look for the MWC to get four bids if a lot of the big boys are left out. And look out for the Colonial Athletic Conference to get two, maybe even three bids if the upsets are kept to a minimum.

With the big upset of SIU over WSU this week, the Valley will need a whole lot of luck to get a second bid, but keep in mind the three extra bids to the Big Dance this year. This will give some teams bids that probably have no business earning one!

 

[tornado]

hey -- then give one to SIU for their key win at Wichita!