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Belmont at-large consideration?

B

BUSongwriter

Member
So.....Belmont's record is a gaudy 21-3, including a road record of 9-1. They've won eight straight, and have seven regular season games remaining. If the Bruins win five of those, and then two in St. Louis, they'd go to the championship game with a record of 28-5. Good enough to merit at-large consideration? If not, what if they finish 29-4, or if they win out and are 30-3 going into the title game?

Let the yearly yapping about Quad 1 wins begin! (Yawn.) Are we really at the point where a 30-win team might stay home while a sub-.500, lower-half standing team from a power conference goes to the dance?
 
BUSongwriter said:
So.....Belmont's record is a gaudy 21-3, including a road record of 9-1. They've won eight straight, and have seven regular season games remaining. If the Bruins win five of those, and then two in St. Louis, they'd go to the championship game with a record of 28-5. Good enough to merit at-large consideration? If not, what if they finish 29-4, or if they win out and are 30-3 going into the title game?

Let the yearly yapping about Quad 1 wins begin! (Yawn.) Are we really at the point where a 30-win team might stay home while a sub-.500, lower-half standing team from a power conference goes to the dance?
Click to expand...
To answer your question, yes, power conferences always rank above mid-majors when it comes to at-large bids; sub-.500 teams will trump teams like Belmont or undefeated Miami-Ohio every time.
 
yes- selection gurus worship the NET, but it's all rigged...........
it's their baby that factors in the SOS and performace of all their opponents, as well as even their preseason ranking...
so, mediocre teams in power conference like the Big Ten, will automatically get a massive boost because of the other ranked teams
in their conference.
So you get teams like SMU, 15-7, 4-5 in the ACC, 1-5 in Quad-1, barely beat Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and yet they
have an astounding NET of 34- way, way better than anyone in the MVC or any mid-major conference.

Texas is 13-9 with a non-conference Strength of Schedule 226 yet their NET is 38....

but then the one that blows me away - Washington...12-11, 4-8 in the Big Ten, 13th place in the Big Ten, with a non-conference
Strength of Schedule 271, even have a loss to a weak mid-major (Seattle) - yet they have a NET in the 40's!
so come selection Sunday, they would get the nod over Belmont (NET 58)
 
Unless Belmont wins out and loses in championship game of Arch Madness, no chance at consideration.
Haven't played a single Tier 1 team. Doesn't bode well for SOS for a mid major.
 
LittleBrave said:
Unless Belmont wins out and loses in championship game of Arch Madness, no chance at consideration.
Haven't played a single Tier 1 team. Doesn't bode well for SOS for a mid major.
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It might depend on how many at-large spots get "stolen" by teams that win tournaments that would not have gotten at-large bids.
But remember some of the most notable snubs in MVC history-
Indiana State dominated the MVC in 2022-23, finished 17-3 and 32-7 overall, and had an NET of 29 on Selection Sunday, but did not get an at-large bid (still a record for best NET not to get a bid).
Illinois State tied for the MVC title in 2017 with Wichita State and lost a close game in the tournament championship. They had an RPI of 39, but did not get a bid.
Missouri State finished with an RPI of 21, and did not get a bid in 2006 (still a record for best RPI not to get an at-large bid)
And of course, Bradley had an RPI of 32 (1982 was the first year RPI was used), and did not get an NCAA bid. They went on to win the NIT.
 
LittleBrave said:
Unless Belmont wins out and loses in championship game of Arch Madness, no chance at consideration.
Haven't played a single Tier 1 team. Doesn't bode well for SOS for a mid major.
Click to expand...
Actually, I believe if Belmont or any team in the Valley for that matter, could literally go undefeated the whole season... lose in the Valley final.... and... Congrats. Here's a 1 seed in the NIT. It's the way it is now. No way they put 2 teams from the Valley in anymore.
 
Until the last 5 seasons, the MVC and Mountain West Conferences were similar in strength. In most of the past seasons, the MVC actually had better conference RPI numbers. But since 2021, things have changed, and the Mountain West has had consistently better RPI and NET numbers.
Last year, in 2025, the Mountain West got 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. In 2024, it was a record 6 teams! In 2023 and 2022, it was also 4 teams. In 2021 and 2019 it was only 2 bids (there was no tournament in 2020, but they likely would have had only 1 team). And in 2018, and most years earlier, they were a 1 bid league, the automatic qualifier.
So what changed after 2021? One of the biggest reasons is that all the Mountain West schools, other than perennial bottom-dwelling Air Force, are huge, well funded state schools, most of which are in larger cities than MVC schools. And they are all football schools, which creates significantly more revenue. In this new era of NIL, and easy transferring, that allows them to attract better talent. And they are virtually all in states with few if any other D1 schools to compete with for their own recruits. Their funding enables them to pay better NIL money. And they have the revenue to schedule better, travel anywhere, and play better competition.
And maybe another factor is that when a MWC team gets good, they stay in the conference, because there simply isn't any better option available to them, unlike when Tulsa, Creighton, Wichita State, and Loyola jumped to other conferences.
Another factor is that because of the later time zones, they play their games later than the Eastern and Midwest Time Zones with less programmimg competition, and that has allowed them to get more lucrative TV deals with CBS Sports, Fox Sports, and the CW Network which reach a much broader area.
It must be working, since they just announced they plan to change to subscription model, which they expect will draw bigger revenue-
nevadasportsnet.com

Mountain West lands TV deal with CBS, Fox, The CW; MW App going to a subscription model

The Mountain West announced Tuesday it has signed a media-rights deal with CBS, FOX, The CW and Kiswe. CBS will remain the MW's primary television partner, whi
nevadasportsnet.com nevadasportsnet.com

There are other reasons, and football isn't going to save the MVC. Maybe it's already too late, but there have to be some things the conference can do to raise the conference visibility, and reach a broader audience. Does anyone think putting games on Gray Media is the answer to helping the MVC's visibility?
 
Da Coach said:
Until the last 5 seasons, the MVC and Mountain West Conferences were similar in strength. In most of the past seasons, the MVC actually had better conference RPI numbers. But since 2021, things have changed, and the Mountain West has had consistently better RPI and NET numbers.
Last year, in 2025, the Mountain West got 4 teams in the NCAA Tournament. In 2024, it was a record 6 teams! In 2023 and 2022, it was also 4 teams. In 2021 and 2019 it was only 2 bids (there was no tournament in 2020, but they likely would have had only 1 team). And in 2018, and most years earlier, they were a 1 bid league, the automatic qualifier.
So what changed after 2021? One of the biggest reasons is that all the Mountain West schools, other than perennial bottom-dwelling Air Force, are huge, well funded state schools, most of which are in larger cities than MVC schools. And they are all football schools, which creates significantly more revenue. In this new era of NIL, and easy transferring, that allows them to attract better talent. And they are virtually all in states with few if any other D1 schools to compete with for their own recruits. Their funding enables them to pay better NIL money. And they have the revenue to schedule better, travel anywhere, and play better competition.
And maybe another factor is that when a MWC team gets good, they stay in the conference, because there simply isn't any better option available to them, unlike when Tulsa, Creighton, Wichita State, and Loyola jumped to other conferences.
Another factor is that because of the later time zones, they play their games later than the Eastern and Midwest Time Zones with less programmimg competition, and that has allowed them to get more lucrative TV deals with CBS Sports, Fox Sports, and the CW Network which reach a much broader area.
It must be working, since they just announced they plan to change to subscription model, which they expect will draw bigger revenue-
nevadasportsnet.com

Mountain West lands TV deal with CBS, Fox, The CW; MW App going to a subscription model

The Mountain West announced Tuesday it has signed a media-rights deal with CBS, FOX, The CW and Kiswe. CBS will remain the MW's primary television partner, whi
nevadasportsnet.com nevadasportsnet.com

There are other reasons, and football isn't going to save the MVC. Maybe it's already too late, but there have to be some things the conference can do to raise the conference visibility, and reach a broader audience. Does anyone think putting games on Gray Media is the answer to helping the MVC's visibility?
Click to expand...
I still think having more teams is important and need to stay regional because of costs. Bradley needs to find more revenue in order to get better talented players. They are currently recruiting some very good Jucos but in this day of NIL money is everything.
 
I may very well be dense but I don’t see the advantage of more teams. Unless you get more teams in tourney you just split one bid more ways and I don’t see the obvious candidate that is really good and will lift the top of the league far enough to dependably get more than one bid.
 
I mentioned above that the Mountain West has managed, up to now, to avoid their teams bolting to other conferences.
But, they will lose most of their best teams after this season as the Pac-12 is revived with mostly new members, including 5 MWC teams.
Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State will become members of the new Pac-12 in 2026-27.
So I'd expect the MWC to drop back to where they have been for most of the last 30 years, as a 1 bid conference most years.
 
houstonbrave said:
I may very well be dense but I don’t see the advantage of more teams. Unless you get more teams in tourney you just split one bid more ways and I don’t see the obvious candidate that is really good and will lift the top of the league far enough to dependably get more than one bid.
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I get that but seems to me there is more power in numbers. This number we have now is not working as far as getting at large bids.
 
We had more just 2 years ago and it didn't help.
The MVC had 12 teams in the 2023-24 season, and still the regular season champion, Indiana State with a record of 28-6 (17-3 in MVC) and an NET of 29 on selection Sunday, didn't get a bid. They even had a couple Quadrant 1 wins.
 
For sure they could get a good seed in the NIT if they don't manage to snag the Auto bid.
Would root for them to go far - I could see them win a few.
 
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LittleBrave said:
For sure they could get a good seed in the NIT if they don't manage to snag the Auto bid.
Would root for them to go far, and with a strong home crowd usually, might win a few.
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I agree. I think they could do well in the NIT if their key guys stay healthy. And if they get a good seed, they would play game(s) at home where they are hard to beat.
Bradley caught them on a night when they had one of their lowest shooting percentage games, and yet they almost pulled off the road win. Belmont still has the best chance at the #1 seed by March, but there are 5 or 6 teams that could win the tournament.
 
This is the kind of crap in how the NET rankings are set up.

Before last game when BU defeated Belmont...
Bradley 122; Belmont 58

After the game....
Bradley 118; Belmont 59

I mean at least Belmont didn't slide far (likely b/c BU is a Quad 3 team and was a road game), but BU only went up 4 notches after beating a team in the Top 60...probably mattered very little whether Belmont was 58 or 98 in the calculations for Bradley's ranking.

The only reason VCU is at 50 is b/c they have played 4 Quad 1 teams (0-4 vs them). Then you've got Ohio St. who is 0-7 vs Quad 1 teams and at 41, but there is little doubt they will get an At-Large bid.

If you go down the list a bit, you see 3 teams (75, 76, 77) who are all 2-12 vs Q1 or Q2 teams...and that's the ONLY reason they're in the Top 100 b/c of the high volume of Q1 games they played...and lost. Not that far behind a Belmont team who was previously 3-0 vs Quad 2 teams.

Unless you play vs. Quad 1 teams, you have little chance to climb up the list. And for mid major schools, unless you have a .500 record (or better) vs Quad 1 teams, you got no chance with the selection committee.

And of course, none of the Big Boys wants to play solid mid major schools.

Btw all of this above comes as no shock to any of you likely...just wanted to vent. LOL
 
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LittleBrave said:
This is the kind of crap in how the NET rankings are set up.

Before last game when BU defeated Belmont...
Bradley 122; Belmont 58

After the game....
Bradley 118; Belmont 59

I mean at least Belmont didn't slide far (likely b/c BU is a Quad 3 team and was a road game), but BU only went up 4 notches after beating a team in the Top 60...probably mattered very little whether Belmont was 58 or 98 in the calculations for Bradley's ranking.

The only reason VCU is at 50 is b/c they have played 4 Quad 1 teams (0-4 vs them). Then you've got Ohio St. who is 0-7 vs Quad 1 teams and at 41, but there is little doubt they will get an At-Large bid.

If you go down the list a bit, you see 3 teams (75, 76, 77) who are all 2-12 vs Q1 or Q2 teams...and that's the ONLY reason they're in the Top 100 b/c of the high volume of Q1 games they played...and lost. Not that far behind a Belmont team who was previously 3-0 vs Quad 2 teams.

Unless you play vs. Quad 1 teams, you have little chance to climb up the list. And for mid major schools, unless you have a .500 record (or better) vs Quad 1 teams, you got no chance with the selection committee.

And of course, none of the Big Boys wants to play solid mid major schools.

Btw all of this above comes as no shock to any of you likely...just wanted to vent. LOL
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Now you know why Belmont won't get an at-large bid. In fact, there will be very few, if any, at-large bids for mid-majors. These will go to high major teams that are bottom dwellers in their conferences, but looked impressive blowing out schools from the MEAC, SWAC, and MAC.
 
This guy understands... the mid-majors don't get at-large bids because the selection committee uses criteria like how many Power Conference teams you've played or beaten. But the Power Conference teams refuse to play mid-majors they might lose to, and virtually never play them other on their own court. This is all by design-
https://twitter.com/x/status/2022677925963903335
 
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