BIG Men Analysis - David Collins Must Play More!!!

[Dallas Brave]

Early today, I plugged into Excel a variety of statistics for Bradley’s fifteen games this year with the objective of assessing the impact of our 4 and 5 players (DC, RA, SS, and MS). I looked at offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and team shooting percentage. I wasn’t interested in individual stats, but rather the team statistics.

All 4/5 Players: Minutes Played
Three Games under 40 minutes combined: SEMO: 38, Butler: 33, VCU: 36
Four Games with 40-to-44 minutes combined: FGC: 40, Iowa: 44, Loyola: 40, Michigan State: 40
Eight Games with 45+ minutes combined: UIC: 51, Iowa St: 47, MES: 48, Vandy: 49, Wright State: 46; Northern Iowa: 46, MO State: 47, Wichita State: 47

All 4/5 Players: Team Rebounding:
Interesting, Bradley does not rebound better as a team in the games where these four players log more minutes. In fact, the average team rebounds for the three games with under 40 combined minutes is 38 while the average team rebounds for games with combined minutes of 40-44 is 33 and 45+ minutes is also 33.

All 4/5 Players: Team Shooting Percentage
Opponent shooting percentage is pretty consistent regardless of the combined minutes played by the big guys, but there is a noticeable improvement in BU’s shooting percentage when the big guys log more minutes. BU’s shooting percentages by minutes played for the bigs are:
Under 40 minutes: 39.7%, 40-to-44 minutes: 44.3 %, 45+ minutes: 44.0%.
This improvement was even more pronounced before the last 3 games when BU shot 31.5%, 41.4%, and 37.9% despite the bigs logging over 45 minutes in each of the last three games.

All 4/5 Players: Conclusions
Based on this information, the collective impact of the bigs is not overly significant and the argument that the team shoots better when the bigs log more minute could easily be disputed by the results of the last 3 games when the bigs logged more than 45 minutes each game but the team shooting percentage was under average.

David Collins: While the impact on team rebounding and shooting percentage by the 4/5 players collectively is negligible, that is not the case when you assess David Collins apart from the other 4/5 players. Again, I looked at team rebounding and team shooting percentages.

David Collins: Minutes Played
Six Games under 10 minutes: Iowa State: 8, Butler: 2, VCU: 6, UNI: 8, MO State: 0, Wichita State, 0
Four Games of 10-14 minutes: UIC; 13, FGC: 12, Loyola: 14, Michigan State: 13
Five Games of 15+ minutes: MES: 18, Iowa: 15, Vandy: 17, SEMO: 15, Wright State: 17

David Collins: Offensive Rebounding (team)
Under 10 minutes: BU – 10, Opponents – 11
10-14 minutes: BU – 13, Opponents – 13
15+ minutes: BU – 13, Opponents – 13

David Collins: Defensive Rebounding (team)
Under 10 minutes: BU – 20, Opponents – 26
10-14 minutes: BU – 22, Opponents – 23
15+ minutes: BU – 25, Opponents – 21

David Collins: Total Rebounding (team)
Under 10 minutes: BU – 30, Opponents – 37
10-14 minutes: BU – 35, Opponents – 36
15+ minutes: BU – 38, Opponents – 34

David Collins: Shooting percentage (team)
Under 10 minutes: BU – 39.7%, Opponents – 48.6%
10-14 minutes: BU – 43.5%, Opponents – 44.7%
15+ minutes: BU – 47.8%, Opponents – 43.9%

David Collins: Conclusions
The numbers show clearly that the team performs better the more David plays. The only statistic that does not improve as David’s minutes increase is the opponents offensive rebounding, but I think the increase in offensive rebounds is due to more opportunities for offensive rebounds since the opponents shooting percentages drop off significantly as David plays more.

For the first 10 games, Bradley held a plus 20 rebound advantage (357 to 337) over their opponents. In the last 5 games where David has logged less than 10 minutes in each game, Bradley has been out rebounded by an astounding total of 40 rebounds (155 to 195). We have been pounded on the boards when David doesn’t play! In fact, Wichita Sate had more offensive rebounds (10) than Bradley had defensive rebounds (9). When is the last time that has happened in a game? In the first 12 games, only Michigan State out rebounded Bradley. In the last 3 games where David has logged a total of 8 minutes (less than 3 minutes a game), Bradley has been out rebounded each game ... by 18 to UNI, by 10 to MO State, and by 16 to Wichita State. The team clearly rebounds better with David in the game.

Bradley’s team shooting percentage improves dramatically also as David plays more. David’s inside presence loosens up the perimeter defense for our outside shooters.

For Bradley to win games David Collins needs to play!!! He will make mistakes, but we are a better team when he plays!!!! He needs to play as much as possible. When DR comes back, this Bradley team will win the MVC tournament and make noise in the NCAA tournament if we play DC at the 5 and MS at the 4. Sub in RA and SS for 8-10 minutes a game each. Collectively, the bigs should be playing 55+ minutes a game!

 

[Braves4Life]

Early today, I plugged into Excel a variety of statistics for Bradley??™s fifteen games this year with the objective of assessing the impact of our 4 and 5 players (DC, RA, SS, and MS). I looked at offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and team shooting percentage. I wasn??™t interested in individual stats, but rather the team statistics.


For Bradley to win games David Collins needs to play!!! He will make mistakes, but we are a better team when he plays!!!! He needs to play as much as possible. When DR comes back, this Bradley team will win the MVC tournament and make noise in the NCAA tournament if we play DC at the 5 and MS at the 4. Sub in RA and SS for 8-10 minutes a game each. Collectively, the bigs should be playing 55+ minutes a game!

Wow! Great work Dallas! Must be a real slow day in Big D :lol:

Might wanna e-mail this to Coach Les............Good stuff

 

[Dallas Brave]

Wow! Great work Dallas! Must be a real slow day in Big D :lol:

Might wanna e-mail this to Coach Les............Good stuff

I am so frustrated by David's lack of playing time that I had to run the numbers .. despite arriving home from Colorado at 2:30 am after a 15 hour drive through a snow storm!!!!

 

[Da Coach]

Thanks for the work. I think we will see more of DC soon.

 

[Beninator]

Nice work Dallas... This just confirms what a lot of us have been saying.

I HOPE that we see more of DC at the 5 with MS at the 4 and my guy RA coming off the bench.

 

[Dallas Brave]

Nice work Dallas... This just confirms what a lot of us have been saying.

I HOPE that we see more of DC at the 5 with MS at the 4 and my guy RA coming off the bench.

Thanks Beninator. The results of the last 3 games with DC riding the pine are a loud message that he needs to be on the floor a lot more.

 

[Dallas Brave]

I apologize for continuing to shout from the soap box about the importance of David Collins to this team. But, the numbers would indicate that his absence in the last 3 games has impacted the team more than the absence of DR. SM has filled in for DR fairly well, but as you can see from the table below, there is no one that can fill in for David when he sits on the bench. DC's playing time dramatically impacts this team's ability to control the boards.

Only Michigan State outrebounded Bradley in pre-conference play. Bradley has been badly outrebounded in every conference game ... DC played only 8 minutes against UNI and 0 minutes in the Mo State game and 0 minutes in the Wichita State game. And Bradley has looked bad in the previous two non-conference games against VCU and Butler where, again, DC only played 6 minutes and 2 minutes respectively. These were games where DR played, albeit at less than full strength. Is BU's skid in the last five games due to DR's injury? Yes, obviously there is some impact ... but I would argue that the lack of DC's playing time has hurt the Braves more than DR's absence.

SIU is a short team. The Salukis tallest players, that get playing time, are Fay and Boyle (each 6'8") and Falkner and Shaw (each 6'7"). It is time for Bradley to win the battle of the boards in a conference game.

Motto for the rest of the season: Go Big or Go Home!

The Braves' mantra for the rest of the season is that nobody should beat us on the boards!


Team...DCMinutes...BURebs...OppRebs...+/(-)
UIC .........13............40..........31..........9
Iowa St .....8............27..........25..........2
MES ........18............39..........38..........1
FGC .........12...........42..........36..........6
Iowa ........15...........33..........31..........2
Vandy ......17...........34..........34..........0
Loyola ......14...........29..........28..........1
SEMO .......15...........40..........33..........7
Mich St ....13............29..........48.......(19)
Wright ......17...........44..........33.........11
Butler ........2...........32...........32..........0
VCU ..........6...........41...........37..........4
UNI ...........8...........27...........45.......(18 )
Mo St ........0+.........33...........43.......(10)
Wich St .....0...........22...........38.......(16)

 

[real fan]

Will Egolf has a lot of talent and I believe could be as successful as our other freshman Sam has been if he would run some plays for him down low and get him the ball .

 

[ghunt]

Interesting numbers. Pretty hard to argue with. They seem to suport my contentions about the need for certain personnel in order to make the offense even better and addressing the shooting percetnage and rebounding weakness. However, I did make an observation elsewhere that Jimmy may be focusing in on the defensive end and rebounding to lesser extent, and so DC and the other big guys aren't getting the minutes do to that. I didn't notice, do you have opponents' fg% for the DC and 4/5 breakouts? Tthat would be huge.

I liked it for awhile when I observed and commented on the following line up moves of Jimmy: start with Matt at 5, at 16 min.1st official time out or so, sub DC and Will, next change, have David in with Salley or bring Sam S in with Salley. We'd start small to try to force are style, but then come in bigger. However, I think that not playing the bigger guys more ealier in the season is starting to haunt us. And I still cannot fathom the out-of-nowwhere now playing of Austin (and now maybe the not really playing of Austin). Did he or Jimmy have an epiphany? And jeez, going from 0 miuntes to quality playing time, the coaches should not jerk him or compain when he sets a bad screen, makes a bad foul, or pass here and there. Going from "0 to 60" is bad enough on a car, but an athlete ;-)

 

[Beninator]

Will Egolf has a lot of talent and I believe could be as successful as our other freshman Sam has been if he would run some plays for him down low and get him the ball .

Maybe??? I am not convinced on that one yet.....
Bottom line is that this team has some good young talent.

 

[lefty]

Mybe if he plays more he would do better but the games I've seen him play he has not done well. People get by him on D,he missed 3or 4 shots at close range against UNI, and doesn't play with much fire. So far I'm not impressed....I know he's 7ft tall but he's still got to do something

Now with all that said and a losing streak going on it probably won't hurt to play him more either....maybe it would shake MS up coming off the bench

 

[CABUFan]

I'm as confused as everyone else about DC's lack of playing time. He seemed to be getting better and better for most of the non-con season, and now he has disappeared. I'm sure Les has his reasons for sitting him, but what we're doing right now is obviously not working.

To go along with DB's analysis, does anyone have plus/minus stats for the team (i.e. how the team does when each player is on the floor)? I remember those stats clearly showed JJ was being under-utilized during the first half of the 05-06 season. I'd like to see what they say about the impact of various players (especially DC) so far this year.

 

[Dallas Brave]

Mybe if he plays more he would do better but the games I've seen him play he has not done well. People get by him on D,he missed 3or 4 shots at close range against UNI, and doesn't play with much fire. So far I'm not impressed....I know he's 7ft tall but he's still got to do something

Now with all that said and a losing streak going on it probably won't hurt to play him more either....maybe it would shake MS up coming off the bench

I think that is part of the enigma that is keeping JL from playing the best group of players as he seems to be stressing individual performance in practices. DC is not a one-man wrecking crew, but when he plays, his presence allows the other four players to elevate their games. You don't see that in a practice, but you see it in a game.

For example, I think we all agree that Theron Wilson is a guy who knows how to go after it. Here are Theron's rebounds for the last five games when DC has been benched:
Butler - 5 (1 offensive)
VCU - 10 (3 offensive)
UNI - 4 (0 offensive)
MoSt - 5 (0 offensive)
WSU - 5 (2 offensive)

With the exception of the VCU game (who I believe played a short lineup), TW's rebounding has been off compared to games where DC logged 10+ minutes.

Here are TW's rebounds stats in the games where DC played 10+ minutes:
UIC - 4 (1 O)
MES - 6 (0 O)
FGC - 8 (3 O)
Iowa - 11 (6 O)
Vandy - 6 (2 O)
Loyola - 8 (3 O)
SEMO - 7 (3 O)
Mich St - 3 (1 O)
Wright - 9 (5 O)

I think it is safe to say that TW gets more rebounds when DC plays more minutes. Plus, BU shoots better and the other team shoots less well (as shown in the initial post of this thread). It's not about DC's stats, it about team stats - i.e., if JL wants to put the best "team of players" on the floor, he needs to include DC.

 

[Braves4Life]

I'm as confused as everyone else about DC's lack of playing time. He seemed to be getting better and better for most of the non-con season, and now he has disappeared. I'm sure Les has his reasons for sitting him, but what we're doing right now is obviously not working.

To go along with DB's analysis, does anyone have plus/minus stats for the team (i.e. how the team does when each player is on the floor)? I remember those stats clearly showed JJ was being under-utilized during the first half of the 05-06 season. I'd like to see what they say about the impact of various players (especially DC) so far this year.

There could be "other" reasons why DC has not played recently. Remember, it's been finals time on the Hilltop recently. Just a thought..................maybe so, maybe no.

 

[BradleyBrave]

I think that is part of the enigma that is keeping JL from playing the best group of players as he seems to be stressing individual performance in practices. DC is not a one-man wrecking crew, but when he plays, his presence allows the other four players to elevate their games. You don't see that in a practice, but you see it in a game.

For example, I think we all agree that Theron Wilson is a guy who knows how to go after it. Here are Theron's rebounds for the last five games when DC has been benched:
Butler - 5 (1 offensive)
VCU - 10 (3 offensive)
UNI - 4 (0 offensive)
MoSt - 5 (0 offensive)
WSU - 5 (2 offensive)

With the exception of the VCU game (who I believe played a short lineup), TW's rebounding has been off compared to games where DC logged 10+ minutes.

Here are TW's rebounds stats in the games where DC played 10+ minutes:
UIC - 4 (1 O)
MES - 6 (0 O)
FGC - 8 (3 O)
Iowa - 11 (6 O)
Vandy - 6 (2 O)
Loyola - 8 (3 O)
SEMO - 7 (3 O)
Mich St - 3 (1 O)
Wright - 9 (5 O)

I think it is safe to say that TW gets more rebounds when DC plays more minutes. Plus, BU shoots better and the other team shoots less well (as shown in the initial post of this thread). It's not about DC's stats, it about team stats - i.e., if JL wants to put the best "team of players" on the floor, he needs to include DC.

Great numbers DB. I think you could take it a step further, and look at the team +/- points when DC is in the game, i.e. DC entered at the 18 mark of the first half and left at the 10 minute marke, and when he was in the game BU outscored the opposition by 5 points, outrebounded them 5, shot 55% from the field, held the opposition to 35%, etc. I have a feeling if you broke down those numbers, you'd see a very positive number when DC was in the game.

FWIW, even in Jim's first few years when everyone was questioning everything, one thing I didn't question was who Jim played. I always felt like he was playing the right people, even in '05-'06 when we were struggling. So in that regard, one would think there has to be some sort of reason that we don't fully know about that's keeping DC off the court. Otherwise, it's probably the first time in Jim's tenure that I truly believe he's not playing the right people.

 

[basketball nut]

Good observations when just looking at these numbers but if we could look at some numbers such as how many rebounds have been taken away from him before he got rid of the ball-how many times has he thrown a weak pass that the other team comes up w/-how many passes that were thrown to him did he miss.
I could go on and on about how he has cost us but I won't. The one thing we need is a stronger inside presence I would love to see Egolf get some inside game and would love to see DC play up to his potential. The best thing he can do is rebound but he is not an offensive presence (but then again neither was Rodman or Wallace but they could play defense which DC has not learned how). I don't know if he just doesn't realize what he has to do to be successful or if he just soft. From what I have heard he is very strong but plays like he isn't. I would love to see an inside game of DC & WE working together down low but they both need to get tougher on "D" and that is what we lack on the inside along w/ any offense. As Barry Henson said he wasn't worried about BU's fast start because we have no inside game and they would put the big guys outside to help stop the 3 and it worked and will continue to work by all teams until we establish a rebounding presence by someone, anyone, other then the other team.

 

[shaunguth]

The best thing he can do is rebound but he is not an offensive presence

I disagree with this statement as Collins has done rather well being productive on BOTH ends of the floor when he has gotten the playing time. This is evident when looking at the Production Per 40 Minutes:

Points
18.1 - Daniel Ruffin
18.0 - Andrew Warren
17.7 - David Collins
17.1 - Sam Singh
15.8 - Jeremy Crouch

In fact, DC has the same offensive production (5.0 pts/gm) as Salley (5.7 pts/gm) and he's doing it in less than half the playing time Salley is getting. (10.5 min/gm compared to 22.7 min/gm)

If DC is "not an offensive presence", then Salley is half that!

 

[shaunguth]

And I still cannot fathom the out-of-nowwhere now playing of Austin (and now maybe the not really playing of Austin). Did he or Jimmy have an epiphany? And jeez, going from 0 miuntes to quality playing time, the coaches should not jerk him or compain when he sets a bad screen, makes a bad foul, or pass here and there. Going from "0 to 60" is bad enough on a car, but an athlete ;-)

Not sure what you mean by this. The last five games have seen Austin on the floor for a total of 21 minutes.

 

[BradleyBrave]

I've got to believe it's a practice/effort thing with DC. That's the only logical explanation. Jim isn't trying to lose games. I know several people have echoed the Allen Iverson 'practice?!?' mantra, but I agree with Wessler - If you reward guys who don't give the effort in practice, you lose the team completely.

My question on that philosophy/assumption is regarding Sam Singh. Did he give such poor effort in practice as to not play against UNI, yet practice so much better that he warranted major minutes against MSU?

 

[ER3]

My question on that philosophy/assumption is regarding Sam Singh. Did he give such poor effort in practice as to not play against UNI, yet practice so much better that he warranted major minutes against MSU?

I've mentioned it in other threads...but as far as Singh's minutes go, it is completely dependent on the matchup...MSU and WSU didn't have a big guy that could exploit Singh's lack of foot speed and inability to defend someone with quickness in the post, so he was able to play significant minutes in those games...against UNI, he simply could not be asked to try and defend Coleman...Every possession for UNI would have turned out just like every Butler possession did when Singh was brought into that game...isolate Matt Howard on Singh, clear the other 4 players out away from the ball and let Howard beat Singh to the basket...worked every time.
So not playing Singh against UNI was good coaching from a matchup perspective, IMO...They would have put in a lineup with Coleman at the 5 and Singh would have been defenseless in the post...