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Bracketology- is Wichita State going to get a bid or is MVC a one-bid conference?

Da Coach

Da Coach

Moderator
Staff member
Since part of the calculation of RPI is dependent on how your opponents do, and even how their opponents do, the RPIs of teams who have finished playing continue to change a little.
This morning, the RPI for Wichita State has dropped even further to 48 which puts them well onto the bubble for an at-large bid.-
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/conference/Missouri-Valley

Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com posted his latest update of his picks for the NCAA Tournament on Sunday (March 6), and listed Wichita State as the 3rd team among the "First Four Out". he has Northern Iowa as a #14 seed-
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

ESPN's Joe Lunardi just posted his updated Brackets this morning (March 7), but he has either made a mistake, or is delusional. He still lists Wichita State as a #7 seed, but does not list Northern Iowa in his bracket at all. Wichita State lost on Saturday March 5, yet Lunardi's last 2 brackets (March 6 & March 7) keep listing Wichita State as a #7 seed and don't show UNI. Someone needs to tell Joe that WSU lost and UNI won the MVC Tournament. That is embarrassing. :oops:-
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/251

USA Today also has Wichita State as one of the First Four Out-
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...-kansas-villanova-oklahoma-virginia/81402510/

Sports Illustrated also has Wichita State as among the "First Four Out"-
http://www.si.com/college-basketbal...racket-bracketology-kansas-virginia-villanova

There are a few other bracketology articles that do include Wichita State-
The Washington Post says WSU is an at large team with a #10 seed-
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...e-2016-ncaa-tournament-field-looks-right-now/

This SBNation blogger puts Wichita State in as a #11 seed and as one of his "Last Four In", and places them in the First Four round, playing another #11 seed-
http://www.sbnation.com/2016/3/6/11...-wichita-state-syracuse-pitt-austin-peay-yale

Another blogger who puts WSU in as a #11 seed playing in the First Four-
http://thebiglead.com/2016/03/06/br...n-for-now-american-conference-could-be-chaos/
 
I posted in a different thread, then saw this new thread. Sorry. :oops:

So just want to reiterate... I think Wichita is in trouble of getting an at-large bid. Their ONE good win is against Utah. Other teams on the bubble have at least one similar win if not more on their resume. I mentioned UConn and Michigan as examples.
 
Utah is a good win but the Shox were fortunate to catch them at home - doubtful that's gonna happen again any time soon

anyway - never underestimate the power of being a media darling and having the NCAA respond because they are really all about money and not fairness
- and Wichita, Baker, and Fred are as close to media darlings that the gurus have latched on to as anyone in the Valley since Ali Farokhmanesh.


One other thought on the upcoming NCAA...
I doubt anyone from the MVC has ever doubted Dana Altman's coaching ability...but some people have over the years...
but look at where he has them again this year - again he sits atop the Pac-12
In fact - they have an RPI of 4 and a SOS of 6 and yet it took 18 weeks into the season before the voters in the different polls all had Oregon in the TOP 10!!
And as recently as a month ago - both the AP & Coaches poll had them outside the Top 20!
 
Here is a long podcast of the CBSSports college basketball guys (Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander and Sam Vecenie) where they spend 25 minutes discussing the case for and against Wichita State getting an at-large bid. They say this about the Wichita State case- "the Shockers really might be the most fascinating at-large case in the history of the NCAA Tournament". In the end, a couple guys feel WSU deserves a bid, but probably won't get one.-
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...-large-case-and-bill-selfs-coach-of-year-snub
 
Wichta's fanbase and the size of their crowd that travelled the 500 miles to St. Louis, will impress the NCAA every bit as much as the far smaller crowds that many BCS schools have.

I don't care what some say, I am 100% convinced that they are still all about doing what makes the most $$ for themselves...
Barry Hinson and Missouri State back in 2006 simply weren't gonna make any $$ for the NCAA so they got snubbed even tho they did everything they were supposed to do and nobody ever came up with a decent explanation why a 6-7th best team in the Big 12 got in over them...especially since TWO different teams from the MVC made it to the Sweet 16 that year.
 
Would there even be a conversation if Louisville and SMU hadn't had there respective scandals? I have to think it matters and that if they were both eligible for the tourney Wichita would have to settle for the NIT.
 
Da Coach said:
Since part of the calculation of RPI is dependent on how your opponents do, and even how their opponents do, the RPIs of teams who have finished playing continue to change a little.
This morning, the RPI for Wichita State has dropped even further to 48 which puts them well onto the bubble for an at-large bid.-
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/conference/Missouri-Valley

Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com posted his latest update of his picks for the NCAA Tournament on Sunday (March 6), and listed Wichita State as the 3rd team among the "First Four Out". he has Northern Iowa as a #14 seed-
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

ESPN's Joe Lunardi just posted his updated Brackets this morning (March 7), but he has either made a mistake, or is delusional. He still lists Wichita State as a #7 seed, but does not list Northern Iowa in his bracket at all. Wichita State lost on Saturday March 5, yet Lunardi's last 2 brackets (March 6 & March 7) keep listing Wichita State as a #7 seed and don't show UNI. Someone needs to tell Joe that WSU lost and UNI won the MVC Tournament. That is embarrassing. :oops:-
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/251

USA Today also has Wichita State as one of the First Four Out-
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...-kansas-villanova-oklahoma-virginia/81402510/

Sports Illustrated also has Wichita State as among the "First Four Out"-
http://www.si.com/college-basketbal...racket-bracketology-kansas-virginia-villanova

There are a few other bracketology articles that do include Wichita State-
The Washington Post says WSU is an at large team with a #10 seed-
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...e-2016-ncaa-tournament-field-looks-right-now/

This SBNation blogger puts Wichita State in as a #11 seed and as one of his "Last Four In", and places them in the First Four round, playing another #11 seed-
http://www.sbnation.com/2016/3/6/11...-wichita-state-syracuse-pitt-austin-peay-yale

Another blogger who puts WSU in as a #11 seed playing in the First Four-
http://thebiglead.com/2016/03/06/br...n-for-now-american-conference-could-be-chaos/
Click to expand...

http://bracketmatrix.com/

There is an easy way to see a lot of brackets. WSU is in about 80-90% of the brackets updated yesterday. I think they get in either in Dayton or the last 4 byes. The analytical rankings will help them a ton. Being Top 10-15 in KenPom, Top 25 in BPI, Massey, and Sagarin, a 10 seed according to KPI (37 overall). All of those point to being one of the 36 best At-Large candidates. Compound that with the injury situation, and I don't think they leave them out.

That said .. its going to be a long week.
 
Count me in the "Wichita should be in" category.

As Dick Versace said in 1982, and as I believe today, the winner of our league should be in the tournament. Certainly a multi-repeat league champion with several stars from a Final Four team should be.

How would we feel, as Bradley fans, if we would climb the mountain and win the league by a couple of games, and then be denied the Dance because we lost in a 3-day tournament?

Of course, I'd hate to have the Shockers take a spot from a deserving 7th place team in a power conference . . .
 
BUSongwriter said:
Count me in the "Wichita should be in" category.

As Dick Versace said in 1982, and as I believe today, the winner of our league should be in the tournament. Certainly a multi-repeat league champion with several stars from a Final Four team should be.

How would we feel, as Bradley fans, if we would climb the mountain and win the league by a couple of games, and then be denied the Dance because we lost in a 3-day tournament?

Of course, I'd hate to have the Shockers take a spot from a deserving 7th place team in a power conference . . .
Click to expand...

I still hate the fact that a 3 day "get hot" tournament overrides an 18 game season. Its all about $$$$
 
Stickboy46 said:
http://bracketmatrix.com/

There is an easy way to see a lot of brackets. WSU is in about 80-90% of the brackets updated yesterday. I think they get in either in Dayton or the last 4 byes. The analytical rankings will help them a ton. Being Top 10-15 in KenPom, Top 25 in BPI, Massey, and Sagarin, a 10 seed according to KPI (37 overall). All of those point to being one of the 36 best At-Large candidates. Compound that with the injury situation, and I don't think they leave them out.

That said .. its going to be a long week.
Click to expand...

For the record- like most MVC fans, I'd like to see them get in, and I think they have a good chance. But surely you aren't suggesting the Selection Committee looks at and counts sites like KenPom, BPI, Sagarin, etc? Because although those analytical sites have been pretty accurate in predicting brackets, they have been wrong occasionally, too. And the Selection Committee does not refer to or use those sites in making their selections. But they do consider RPI among a number of other factors used.
 
Da Coach said:
For the record- like most MVC fans, I'd like to see them get in, and I think they have a good chance. But surely you aren't suggesting the Selection Committee looks at and counts sites like KenPom, BPI, Sagarin, etc? Because although those analytical sites have been pretty accurate in predicting brackets, they have been wrong occasionally, too. And the Selection Committee does not refer to or use those sites in making their selections. But they do consider RPI among a number of other factors used.
Click to expand...

Committee members have access to all that info. How much they use it, depends on the individual selection committee member.
 
cpacmel said:
Committee members have access to all that info. How much they use it, depends on the individual selection committee member.
Click to expand...

Just going by what has been said publicly by previous members of the selection committee. They believe the RPI is the best statistical measure for seeding teams and rely on it above the other analytics.-
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2013/02/19/rpi-prediction/

Mike Bobinski, chair of the 2013 Selection Committee said:
???Interestingly, last week we asked a statistician that works with the NCAA who is really, really sharp, to sort of do a comparison of all the major different rankings that exist, including the RPI and others that you can all probably certainly come up with who they are, and compare those evaluations systems with performance in the tournament.

Interestingly, if we went through that, we were all surprised to see that the RPI actually did end up with the highest level of predictive value and the highest correlation with ultimately success in the tournament. That doesn??™t mean we??™re going to use it more or less this year. It??™s just a very interesting piece of information.???
 
cpacmel said:
Committee members have access to all that info. How much they use it, depends on the individual selection committee member.
Click to expand...

and each is biased by whatever biases them - and anyone who claims the members are unbiased isn't worth debating since the committee members are actually INSTRUCTED to look at the data then USE their discretion (or bias) to make recommendations - and there have been plenty of tales of differences in discretion/bias that arose (anyone remember the Versace/Gavitt debate?)
 
Da Coach said:
For the record- like most MVC fans, I'd like to see them get in, and I think they have a good chance. But surely you aren't suggesting the Selection Committee looks at and counts sites like KenPom, BPI, Sagarin, etc? Because although those analytical sites have been pretty accurate in predicting brackets, they have been wrong occasionally, too. And the Selection Committee does not refer to or use those sites in making their selections. But they do consider RPI among a number of other factors used.
Click to expand...

100% incorrect.

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections

Its listed as one of the criteria.

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-ba...-process-faq-results-bracket-selection-sunday

Also was used during the "mock selection" that the committee hosted.

The use of the analytics has really become more important in the last year or 2.
 
Contrary to what some have posted here, the committee does indeed consider KenPom, Sagarin, BPI, etc. They also consider key injuries. The Shockers are safely in the field, and UNI took a bid away from someone...I'm just hoping that someone is not Tulsa. Because they didn't win the tourney though, the Shockers now just may get that dreaded 8/9 seed. I'd argue that Wichita State is certainly not the most polarizing bubble team in history, and maybe not even of this year. Consider Temple if they do not win the AAC tourney...
 
I think they are a bubble team and their selection will be based on how many upsets there are in conference tournaments.
 
Yes multi-bids are financially good for the conference. However when it comes to Wichita and their arrogant fans, crybaby coach if he doesn't get, not some, but all calls in his favor and the Wes Washburn understudy guards that are pretty good but not as great as Wichitonians profess I hope they are disappointed on Sunday. All the crying about Van Fleet missing a couple of early season games blah blah blah. He didn't miss any of the late season games and they lost with him healthy as well.

A million dollar coach has bought them one (1) ArchMadness Championship.....................but then again according to him it is a conspiracy against the Shockers in St. Louis.........

:evil:
 
SycamoreFanatic said:
Yes multi-bids are financially good for the conference. However when it comes to Wichita and their arrogant fans, crybaby coach if he doesn't get, not some, but all calls in his favor and the Wes Washburn understudy guards that are pretty good but not as great as Wichitonians profess I hope they are disappointed on Sunday. All the crying about Van Fleet missing a couple of early season games blah blah blah. He didn't miss any of the late season games and they lost with him healthy as well.

A million dollar coach has bought them one (1) ArchMadness Championship.....................but then again according to him it is a conspiracy against the Shockers in St. Louis.........

:evil:
Click to expand...

You talk about Wichita fans being Crybabys, then you turn around and have a huge tantrum about Wichita. Seriously, get a hold of yourself.

I'll take 3 straight Conference Championships over an Arch Madness Trophy any day. One proves you are the best team in the conference, the other proves you had the best weekend.

Maybe you should be more worried about how you make your team actually competitive and not a drain on the conference (on and off the court). At least Bradley supports their team and had pretty darn good reason for their results (all those freshmen). ISUb just gave up at the end of the year.
 
Vent said:
I think they are a bubble team and their selection will be based on how many upsets there are in conference tournaments.
Click to expand...

I'm still not sure whether the Carnage last night helps or hurts WSU. WSU's resume is better than all the 1 seeds that lost last night, but people seem to love Monmouth even though their resume isn't great.
 
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