The selection committee changes its criteria every year, and in the last few years they have not put as much weight on RPI, and instead focused more on Strength of Schedule. Unfortunately, between mediocre non-conference schedules and the weak MVC this year, the SOS for Wichita State is 140, and for ISU is 125. Illinois SOS is 24, which may get them in ahead of ISU.
Everything can still be affected by an upset team winning any one of the top conference tournaments.
Valpo, by losing in the first round of the Horizon tournament, and losing Alec Peters for the rest of the season, and the fact they have an RPI of 77 and a SOS of 189, does not have a prayer of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA. By winning the regular season title, they will get an automatic bid to the NIT. But the Horizon will remain a 1-bid league.
For the record- the worst RPI team ever given an at-large bid were USC (RPI 73) in 2011 and Syracuse (RPI 70) in 2016.
On the other hand, in the last 10 years, the best RPI for a Major school that did not get a bid was 48. So the major schools seem pretty guaranteed if their RPI stays below 50.
However, that could be tested this year, since there are a couple major teams in the 40-50 RPI range with questionable resumes.
Of the major schools with RPI's betwen 50-60, only about 56% of them have gotten at-large bids in the last 10 years. For major schools with an RPI 61-70, only 17% have gotten at-large bids.
However, the worst RPI for an at-large midmajor team (a team not in the "Power 6" [Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Acc, SEC, Pac 12] conferences) was Tulsa last year with an RPI of 61.
And we all recall that Missouri State remains the school with the best RPI not to get a bid (RPI 21 in 2006). Here are the worst snubs in the past. Since the NCAA field has been expanded to 68, this record may not be broken soon-
Of all the D1 schools, majors & midmajors included, that were eligible for the NCAA tournament and who did not get automatic bids for winning their conference tournament in the last 10 years- every one who had an RPI below 30 got an at-large bid. So ISU is on that borderline and is in pretty good shape (ISU's RPI is currently 31). There were 2 schools with an RPI of 30 who did not get a bid (Colorado State in 2015 & St. Bonaventure in 2016).
