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Bracketology

Illinois coming off a bad loss to Rutgers, cannot afford an opening round loss playing Michigan.... a team Illinois split with during the season - but Michigan is also a team that tends to peak at tourney time and do well - they have never lost their opening round game in the Big Ten Tourney under John Beilein - not even when they were 9-21 in 2008.
 
the Bubble maybe getting less crowded??
Syracuse loses right away in their tourney...

they were 18-14 with an RPI of 85 but some gurus still had them in or on the bubble because of six wins against Top 50 teams,
 
Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi of ESPN in his updated bracket today (March 9), still has Illinois State as the last team in the field of 68 teams, but has now dropped them from an #11 seed to a #12 seed, and has them playing in the "First Four" play-in round in Dayton. Wichita State remains as a #9 seed.
He has Illinois listed 3rd on his First 4 Out.-
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology


CBSSports.com's bracketologist Jerry Palm still has Illinois State among his First 4 Out, and he has them listed as the 4th team on the list of First 4 Out, meaning in his opinion, they need a lot of help to climb back into the tournament. Wichita State is still a lowly #11 seed in his bracket, and Illinois is listed 2nd on his First 4 Out.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
 
a lot of teams in their Bracketology that are gonna be weak picks if they get knocked out in the 1st round of their tourneys, like Michigan, MichiganState, Northwestern, and astoundingly hard to believe he still has SYRACUSE in there!!

Syracuse finished 9th in their conference at 18-14
an RPI of 84
a non-conference STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE of 194!!!
FIVE losses to teams with RPI over 100 and NINE losses to teams with Top 100 RPI
Loss to 13-16 UConn
Loss to terrible Georgetown
Loss to Boston College who won only 9 games total!!! ...and Georgia Tech
Only 5-5 in their final 10 games!!


Holy cow - and they left out Barry Hinson with an RPI of 20??


and Kansas State in?
8-10 in B-12?
RPI 60, non-conference SOS 225!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3-8 vs. Top 50 and 5-10 vs Top100!
and only 4-6 in their last 10 games!!
 
Syracuse already lost in the ACC tournament and are eliminated. Their RPI is 84, so it is a mystery why they remain a bubble team to most people.

The games that Illinois State is closely watching today are:
Illinois vs. Michigan- both are bubble teams, but one will probably be bumped off when they lose this game.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas A&M
Miami vs. North Carolina- Miami is almost certainly in, but with a blowout loss, who knows.
Oklahoma State vs. #23 Iowa State- OSU also seems pretty securely in the tournament, but a bad loss could knock them down
Middle Tennessee vs. UT San Antonio- Middle Tennessee is the class of the CUSA, and should win their tournament. But with a loss, they might still deserve an at-large bid with their RPI of 37 and steal a bid away from bubble teams
Tennessee vs. Georgia- Georgia is still a bubble team, despite their 9-9 SEC record. Bubble teams will be pulling for Tennessee to beat them
Michigan St. vs Penn St.- Michigan State is pretty safe, but a bad loss in round 1 of the Big 10 tournament could push them to the bubble with their 50+ RPI, though I doubt it, since the committee loves them too much.
Seton Hall vs. Marquette- Seton Hall (RPI 44) could also be pushed down to the bubble with a bad loss. Marquette (RPI 55) is in the same position.
Nevada vs. Utah State.- Nevada is barely in the tournament as the presumed auto-bid from the MWC, but a loss would make them a bubble team
North Dakota vs. Portland State- Norh Dakota is the presumed Big Sky auto bid, but their RPI of 36 would make them a bubble team as an at-large if they do not win the Big Sky tournamnet. Other bubble teams don't want to see that.
Iowa vs. Indiana- Iowa still a bubble team, and among First 4 Out in a lot of brackets
Virginia Tech vs. Florida State- VA tech fairly solidly in right now, but with their RPI of 42, could be pushed to the bubble with a bad loss
Xavier vs. Butler- Xavier is barely in right now, and could be pushed to the bubble with a bad loss.
Northwestern vs. Rutgers- Northwestern needs to win
Kansas State vs. Baylor- KSU is on the bubble, and needs a good showing, probably needs to win or be bumped off
Providence vs. Creighton- Providence is barely in, and a bad loss would bump them to the bubble. Creighton seems safe either way, but who knows.
California vs. Utah- Cal is a bubble team, along with Illinois, ISU, and others, and if they advance very far will bump others down
 
hardly matters - Illinois is not looking good - down double digits...
better start checking available home dates for the NIT


and this is a little of a surprise...
Missouri State's Dequon Miller announces he has signed with an agent and looking to play pro...
but the bids for NIT, CBI, CIT, etc have not gone out and in theory - Missouri State with their
17-16 record is right where Bradley was in 2012-13 when we got a CIT bid.... so I guess they must have already made their decision they aren't gonna even consider it.
 
tornado said:
hardly matters - Illinois is not looking good - down double digits.......
Click to expand...

wow - Illinois is the team that looks like they just had a plane wreck...
they look terrible...now down 54-36 nearing midway thru 2nd half...
..gonna get an early start on recruiting??
 
Xavier beats Butler tonight, which likely will get Xavier a certain at-large bid.
They have been projected among the last few in the tournament, and a bubble team by many.
 
In the late game in the Big 12 tournament, Kansas State upset Baylor 70-64.

This is bad news for other bubble teams like ISU and Illinois, as some brackets projected Kansas State behind other bubble teams like ISU and Illinois. With this win, they will probably leapfrog over them.

Joe Lunardi just updated his ESPN bracket after the Kansas State-Baylor game, and has now moved Kansas State into the tournament, and moved Illinois State out.


By the way, Kansas State sophomore guard Kamau Stokes looks really good, both offensively and defensively. He is Kansas State's 2nd leading scorer on the season. Geno Ford recruited him hard, and might have had a chance, but he blew up his senior year, and got the offer from Kansas State.
www.bradleyfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=24500
 
There are a large number of players Geno recruited hard that went to bigger schools and have done well. One of the reasons he failed, he seemed to put all his eggs in one basket, with no reasonable contingency plan.

I've gone back and speculated on rosters he could have had here if the guys he was recruiting hard had committed here instead. Too bad we have to live in reality :evil:
 
Talent May Not Have Made A Difference

Talent May Not Have Made A Difference

I wonder. If Coach Ford had gotten every player he wanted, would he have won more games? He would have been the same coach. His players would be without fundamentals and discipline. Perhaps the same outcome.

On the other hand, Coach Wardle won more games with 5 freshmen who clearly were not ready for the physical play in the MVC. We are so much better off.
 
pfcmsh said:
I wonder. If Coach Ford had gotten every player he wanted, would he have won more games?
.
Click to expand...



Other than the elite...Kentucky, NC,Duke,Kansas and few others probably every coach would have won more games getting the players they wanted though
 
I'll continue to hope till Sunday that Illinois State gets in the Big Dance, as I believe any team that finishes 17-1 in our conference and reaches the tourney championship game deserves. Can you imagine how angry we'd be if Bradley had their record and RPI and our spot was given to the likes of a Syracuse? Well, those of us who remember 1982 might have an idea.

Still, if Illinois State has to play in the NIT, a game I'd really be interested in seeing is if they were matched up against Illinois. I must be going soft on our rivals -- that would be two straight games I'd be cheering for the Redbirds!
 
Here are today's updated bracket projections-

ESPN- Updated March 10- Since yesterday, Joe Lunardi has moved ISU out of the tournament (he had them among the "Last 4 In" yesterday) and they are now listed 2nd in his "First 4 Out". He has moved Wichita State up to a #8 seed (they were a #9 seed yesterday).
Illinois has now moved down to the final team among the "Next 4 Out", meaning there are 7 bubble teams ahead of them.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology


CBSSports- Updated March 10- Jerry Palm has ISU listed 2nd among his "First 4 Out". Yesterday he had them 4th on that "First 4 Out" list, so it appears he has moved them up a little, though still not in the tournament.
Oddly, he has Wichita State as a #9 seed today (he had them as a #11 seed yesterday). He had Illinois listed 2nd among his First 4 Out yesterday, but today he dropped the Illini down to where there are 10 teams ahead of them on the bubble!
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
 
tornado said:
hardly matters - Illinois is not looking good - down double digits...
better start checking available home dates for the NIT


and this is a little of a surprise...
Missouri State's Dequon Miller announces he has signed with an agent and looking to play pro...
but the bids for NIT, CBI, CIT, etc have not gone out and in theory - Missouri State with their
17-16 record is right where Bradley was in 2012-13 when we got a CIT bid.... so I guess they must have already made their decision they aren't gonna even consider it.
Click to expand...

MSU with their budget woes (announcing they are cutting 750k from the budget, having to give up the track/field championships because they couldn't afford to fix up facilities) is NOT going to a pay to play tourney.
 
BUSongwriter said:
I must be going soft on our rivals -- that would be two straight games I'd be cheering for the Redbirds!
Click to expand...

I do feel you are going a bit soft. The greatest thing about ISU being knocked out of the NCAA field is that it keeps alive my goal that Bradley could make a return to the dance before the Redbirds do.
 
Rhode Island won their A-10 quarterfinal game, which moves them up a notch, and probably hurts ISU a little more. It's looking more and more like ISU will be a casualty of these other bubble teams continuing to win.
 
one of Minnesota's key players Akeem Springs tore his Achilles tendon in the win over Michigan State and may be done
 
March 11 update-

ESPN-Joe Lunardi had ISU out. Wichita State is a #9 seed-
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology


CBSSports.com- Jerry palm also has ISU out, and Wichita State as a #9 seed-
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Likely not much more will change this now, since all the bubble teams are now pretty clearly in or out. It is still possible for an undeserving team to win a tournament and get a bid that might push ISU down further, but there doesn't appear to be anything that will boost their chances now.
What will the committee do? Unless there is someone on the committee who can plead and change minds in favor of ISU, it is not looking good.
 
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