Expansion

[TheAsianSensation]

No not necessarily...

Like I suggested, just because Bradley had their conf record, it doesn't mean they'd meet the other criteria...


AND then you have to rank all the teams 1- such and such before Bradley even would have a chance to get in...

Hmm. Well, it'd depend on the other criteria and it could get messy.

Could work in the right hands. However, the NCAA, I'm relatively certain, are not the right hands

 

[Bravesfan]

Sorry if I sounded argumentative, didn't mean to. :biggrin:

I'm hoping the same thing!

Oh no, you didn't. Just was enthusiastically agreeing with you.

 

[Bravesfan]

I did this Selection Sunday, using my own projections:

1) Kansas (32-2), Kentucky (32-2), Syracuse (28-4), Duke (29-5)
2) West Virginia (27-6), Kansas St (25-7), Ohio St (27-7), Villanova (24-7)
3) New Mexico (29-4), Pittsburgh (24-8 ), Purdue (27-5), Temple (29-5)
4) Georgetown (23-10), Baylor (24-7), Tennessee (25-8 ), Wisconsin (23-8 )
5) Michigan St (24-8 ), Maryland (22-8 ), Vanderbilt (23-8 ), Texas A&M (22-9)
6) Butler (28-4), BYU (28-5), Richmond (26-8 ), Northern Iowa (28-4)
7) Xavier (24-8 ), Gonzaga (25-6), Texas (24-9), Marquette (22-11)
8 )San Diego St (23-8 ), Missouri (22-10), Clemson (21-10), Louisville (20-12)
9) Florida St (22-9), Oklahoma St (22-10), Old Dominion (26-8 ), Notre Dame (23-11)
10) St Mary's (25-5), Georgia Tech (21-12), Cornell (25-4), UNLV (24-8 )
11) Wake Forest (19-10), Washington (23-9), UTEP (26-6), California (23-10)
12) Siena (27-6), Utah St (26-7), Minnesota (21-13), Illinois (19-14)
13) Virginia Tech (23-8 ), Mississippi St (23-10), Florida (21-12), Seton Hall (19-12)
14) Arizona St (22-10), Mississippi (21-10), Wichita St (24-9), Rhode Island (23-9)
15) Memphis (23-9), New Mexico St (21-11), Kent St (22-9), UAB (23-8 )
16) Connecticut (17-15), Dayton (20-12), Murray St (28-4), William & Mary (21-10)
17) Cincinnati (18-15), Oakland (24-8 ), Wofford (25-8 ), St Louis (19-11)
18 )Northeastern (20-10), South Florida (20-12), Charlotte (19-12), Arizona (16-15)
19) Sam Houston St (21-7), Marshall (20-9), Houston (18-15), Illinois St (22-10)
20) Fairfield (22-10), Wright St (20-12), VCU (22-9), Northwestern (20-13)
21) Tulsa (22-11), Nevada (19-12), North Carolina (16-16), Creighton (16-15)
22) Portland (19-10), UC-Santa Barbara (19-9), Montana (20-9), Morgan St (27-9)
23) Ohio (20-14), North Texas (22-8 ), Vermont (25-9), Robert Morris (23-11)
24) East Tennessee St (19-14), Lehigh (22-10), Winthrop (17-13), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (17-15)


Last 4 in
Nevada
North Carolina
Creighton
Portland (team #85 on S-Curve)

Last 4 out
St John's
Akron
Green Bay
Louisiana Tech


Break it down!

Big East 12
ACC 8
Big 12 7
Big 10 7
A-10 7
CUSA 6
SEC 6
MWC 4
MVC 4
CAA 4
Pac 10 4
WCC 3
WAC 3
Horizon 2
MAAC 2
MAC 2

By percentage:
Big East 75% of league gets in
ACC 67% of league gets in
Big 10 63% of league gets in
Big 12 58% of league gets in
SEC 50% of league gets in
A-10 50% of league gets in
CUSA 50% of league gets in
MWC 44% of league gets in
Pac 10 40% of league gets in
MVC 40% of league gets in
WCC 38% of league gets in
WAC 33% of league gets in

Notice 2 things:

1) There's a spike at the top with the Big East, but the top ranked conference should expect to get 75%. It sounds worse saying "12 of 16" than "9 of 12", but those are EQUIVALENT. Remember that about the Big East specifically.
2) The best non-power conferences make big, big headway. 40% of the Valley. Half of the A-10 and CUSA. Look at those percentages.


Personally, I'm ok with those distributions. 1 top conference getting 75%. Two other top conferences getting over 60%. That's not as terrible as it sounds, actually.

Great analysis as usual TAS! It actually looks like a decent field in that only one team out of the bottom 12 to 15 conferences will make it in, which would be bad for them, but good for the top non-BCS conferences. I still worry about the selection committee getting the seedings right and the extra round of games. But it would still be a good field and entertaining to watch.