Floor Time for Braves (Guards)

[LittleBrave]

How do you think the minutes should be distributed among guards this season? Let's just pretend that we go with a 3-guard offense for most of every game. So let's say we have 130 minutes of P.T. among our 6 guards (assuming WL does not RS).
Maybe I should wait to start this in a few weeks after practice is in full swing, but I'm getting antsy. Don't expect your input to be valued by any of the BU coaching staff...though they are valued on this site.

My thoughts:

SM - 32
DSE - 28
AW - 25
DD - 25
JE - 13
WL - 7

 

[amckillip]

how do you think the minutes should be distributed among guards this season? Let's just pretend that we go with a 3-guard offense for most of every game. So let's say we have 130 minutes of p.t. Among our 6 guards (assuming wl does not rs).
Maybe i should wait to start this in a few weeks after practice is in full swing, but i'm getting antsy. Don't expect your input to be valued by any of the bu coaching staff...though they are valued on this site.

my thoughts:

Sm - 32
dse - 28
aw - 25
dd - 25
je - 13
wl - 7

sm 34
dd 27
aw 24
dse 23
je 11
wl11

 

[toddgak]

Good topic. I am going to use 120 minutes for the guards 1-3 spots.

Sammy 33, Andrew 30, DSE 25, Dodie 20, Jake 7, Walter Lemon 5.

 

[tornado]

Dyricus that much more than Dodie?
Dodie has never played less than 22.5 mpg in any season since grade school and has averaged almost 27 mpg since coming to BU

And Jake averaged 11.4 last year with absolutely NO experience at the college level or with JL's system..

 

[it's boogie time]

I really like Maniscalco, but I hope BU has the depth at pg to let him rest more this year. He's a tough guy to keep out of the game, but I think Bradley will be better throughout the year if he averages around 30 mpg compared to 33 or 34 mpg.

 

[BU RICK]

I was going to make a guess but I really don't know. I think a better guess might be how many total minutes the guards play as a group rather than breaking it down to how many minutes each player gets. IMO, if we play the 3 guard offense again this season, we'll be another .500 team, I'm pretty sure the 3 guard offense only works with dominate rebounding. This season, I'd like to see a different rotation of players with more minutes for the bigs, if a big gets in foul trouble, bring in another big. It's going to take a leap of faith to accept trying something different.

 

[ER3]

I was going to make a guess but I really don't know. I think a better guess might be how many total minutes the guards play as a group rather than breaking it down to how many minutes each player gets. IMO, if we play the 3 guard offense again this season, we'll be another .500 team, I'm pretty sure the 3 guard offense only works with dominate rebounding. This season, I'd like to see a different rotation of players with more minutes for the bigs, if a big gets in foul trouble, bring in another big. It's going to take a leap of faith to accept trying something different.

Our best players are TB and our guards (SM, AW, DSE, DD)...that's why they will play a ton of minutes...
You just can't play a big lineup if you don't have depth in the frontcourt...and we don't right now...It's easy to say 'we need to play a bigger lineup'...but with the way this roster is constructed, if 'going big' means that guys like Thompson and Prosser are suddenly playing 20+ minutes a game...well, that means that players like Simms-Edwards and Dodie are going to be lucky to get 10 minutes a game as a result...
If we're a .500 team in your estimation with DSE and DD getting 20+ minutes a game, then I think we're a total cellar dweller if those guys are only getting 10 minutes a game or less with the 'going big' theory...
You gotta play the horses that you have...and our horses are Taylor Brown and the guards...

 

[amckillip]

Our best players are TB and our guards (SM, AW, DSE, DD)...that's why they will play a ton of minutes...
You just can't play a big lineup if you don't have depth in the frontcourt...and we don't right now...It's easy to say 'we need to play a bigger lineup'...but with the way this roster is constructed, if 'going big' means that guys like Thompson and Prosser are suddenly playing 20+ minutes a game...well, that means that players like Simms-Edwards and Dodie are going to be lucky to get 10 minutes a game as a result...
If we're a .500 team in your estimation with DSE and DD getting 20+ minutes a game, then I think we're a total cellar dweller if those guys are only getting 10 minutes a game or less with the 'going big' theory...
You gotta play the horses that you have...and our horses are Taylor Brown and the guards...

QUOTE OF THE YEAR. I constantly try to convey this, but no one seems to get it. In general, I want my best players playing. Period.

Obviously I don't want five 6' guards, but why would I play AT, or MK more than DSE?

 

[real fan]

Sam can contribute more by limiting him to 28 minutes, with this kind of depth I would like to see our players not playing more then 25 to 30 minutes a game as they will stay fresher which means they can be more aggressive knowing that they will not have to log too many minutes.
A.W. 25 minutes
DSE 25 minutes
D.D. 25 minutes
J.E. 15 minutes
W.L. 10 minutes
Their minutes can be adjusted depending on the opponent as Walter and Jake could get more minutes in the front part of the schedule , I have not seen Walter play yet and from everything I have read or heard he may be playing more plus the way Jake played down in St.Louis he may get more minutes also so then it becomes a question of matchups, not a bad problem to have, just wish the front court was deeper.

 

[jeffsu]

..., I'm pretty sure the 3 guard offense only works with dominate rebounding.

I'm going to pick on this, because stats are easy to use to prove a point.. or disprove one here. (Argue this back and forth all you want, folks...)

But if it's rebounding we say we're lacking, then WHERE is it on other teams? Were returning some of the best rebounding in the league. If you check conference play last year and look at who's returning... we have the top returning rebounder (Taylor Brown), and 2 more that are top 15 (Warren and Egolf)!

I'd say thats a pretty good indication of things to come.

 

[Dallas Brave]

QUOTE OF THE YEAR. I constantly try to convey this, but no one seems to get it. In general, I want my best players playing. Period.

Obviously I don't want five 6' guards, but why would I play AT, or MK more than DSE?

The statistical analysis provided on the Ken Pomeroy site for Bradley between the high water mark of 2005-06 and the struggles of the last 3 years http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Bradley indicate that we need a team that can play defense. Bradley has played an undersized line up the last 3 years and our defensive efficiency rank for those 3 years has been between 136-143. Our winning pct up through the end of the MVC tournament has been 53.1%, 56.3%, and 51.7% respectively and we have had pretty good guard play during that time.

I hope JL doesn't necessarily start the five best players, but the best combination of players that give us a balance of offense and defense. If we play TB at the 4 spot for the greater part of the season, I would predict we will end up up winning 50-55% of our games again unless the average quality of the MVC is down.

 

[amckillip]

The statistical analysis provided on the Ken Pomeroy site for Bradley between the high water mark of 2005-06 and the struggles of the last 3 years http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Bradley indicate that we need a team that can play defense. Bradley has played an undersized line up the last 3 years and our defensive efficiency rank for those 3 years has been between 136-143. Our winning pct up through the end of the MVC tournament has been 53.1%, 56.3%, and 51.7% respectively and we have had pretty good guard play during that time.

I hope JL doesn't necessarily start the five best players, but the best combination of players that give us a balance of offense and defense. If we play TB at the 4 spot for the greater part of the season, I would predict we will end up up winning 50-55% of our games again unless the average quality of the MVC is down.

Yeah... that correlation is not close to proving causation. During the sweet 16 run, in addition to being bigger, we also had an NBA Lottery Pick, and high-major recruit who is having a great career in Europe, among other All-MVC caliber players... And even if it was because we played bigger, you would still need high quality big men.

Ask ILSU whether they want us to start AT, WE, TB, AW, SM or WE, TB, DD, AW, and SM and I can almost guarantee they choose the first. You don't need true bigs to win the MVC, it helps for sure, but it can definitely been done without it.

 

[Dallas Brave]

QUOTE OF THE YEAR. I constantly try to convey this, but no one seems to get it. In general, I want my best players playing. Period.

Obviously I don't want five 6' guards, but why would I play AT, or MK more than DSE?

Yeah... that correlation is not close to proving causation. During the sweet 16 run, in addition to being bigger, we also had an NBA Lottery Pick, and high-major recruit who is having a great career in Europe, among other All-MVC caliber players... And even if it was because we played bigger, you would still need high quality big men.

Ask ILSU whether they want us to start AT, WE, TB, AW, SM or WE, TB, DD, AW, and SM and I can almost guarantee they choose the first. You don't need true bigs to win the MVC, it helps for sure, but it can definitely been done without it.

You're right, correlation doesn’t prove causation … although it might suggest it. Correlation is used to establish predictive relationships. I think it has been clearly shown that good offense with bad defense results in middle of the road results. Our teams have been lacking defensively for 3 years and our winning pct has been unacceptably low to the fans and coaches. If this team doesn’t play improved defense then we can expect similar results to the last 3 years. If Coach Platt is as good as stated in coaching D, then he is probably the most important addition, player or otherwise, that has been brought to the team since the 2006-07 season.

In 2007 we were a short team relying on Zach Andrews and Matt Salley, neither of whom were offensive threats, but they were efficient when they did get the ball. They were aggressive on the boards and brought energy and attitude and at least some height. TB is only an inch shorter than Salley, so maybe a combination of WE and TB will suffice … it didn’t last year, but this is a new season. A zone D with WE and AT could be killer if the guards can cover the perimeter.

Look at Butler’s stats over the last several years. Even though they had decent offensive capability in 2004-05 and 2005-06, their defensive stats were sub-par and their winning results were nothing special. They started being something special in 2006-07 when their defensive stats dramatically improved to go along with solid offensive stats as well.
Height does matter in basketball, especially on defense.

 

[amckillip]

You're right, correlation doesn??™t prove causation ??¦ although it might suggest it. Correlation is used to establish predictive relationships. I think it has been clearly shown that good offense with bad defense results in middle of the road results. Our teams have been lacking defensively for 3 years and our winning pct has been unacceptably low to the fans and coaches. If this team doesn??™t play improved defense then we can expect similar results to the last 3 years. If Coach Platt is as good as stated in coaching D, then he is probably the most important addition, player or otherwise, that has been brought to the team since the 2006-07 season.

In 2007 we were a short team relying on Zach Andres and Matt Salley, neither of whom were offensive threats, but they were efficient when they did get the ball. They were aggressive on the boards and brought energy and attitude and at least some height. TB is only an inch shorter than Salley, so maybe a combination of WE and TB will suffice ??¦ it didn??™t last year, but this is a new season. A zone D with WE and AT could be killer if the guards can cover the perimeter.

Look at Butler??™s stats over the last several years. Even though they had decent offensive capability in 2004-05 and 2005-06, their defensive stats were sub-par and their winning results were nothing special. They started being something special in 2006-07 when their defensive stats dramatically improved to go along with solid offensive stats as well.
Height does matter in basketball, especially on defense.

Those same stats for Butler's D hold true for '00, '01 and '03 when the went to the NCAA's, 2nd round, and Sweet 16 respectively. You're also equating defense to height, which isn't true... I understand what you're saying, but there are FAR too many vairables and counter scenarios to suggest a 3-guard line-up can't work. Especially in the MVC. I could easily cite Villanova from 05-06 where they started 5 guards and and went to the Final Four.

I'm not saying having big guys in basketball doesn't help, but they have to be talented enough. We have solid big guys, but I don't think you could argue AT or WE is more talented than DSE, DD, SM, or AW with a straight face.

 

[SFP]

SM will play under 30 because we have DD and another year of DSE to give him a spell. We also see SM playing on the wings a bit more for the kick outs for open shots. Keeping SM fresh will work out for us when we need him for the end of the game to hit his FTs.

AW will be our main guy at the 3 position and I expect to see a bit more pressure for him to play minutes there with JE giving him his spells and perhaps MK if his defense has improved.

DD will start at the 2 but will be interchangeable at all 3 positions. It will be great to see the energy that will flow from him and SM. Anyone who loves college ball will want to see this and I believe BU fans will be in for a treat. They will not do anything flashy but will give it every thing they have every game.

DSE will also be somewhat interchangeable but mostly playing the combo guard position and doing what is needed. I'm not sure how much time we will see DSE/SM/DD on the floor but I'd hate to be the team trying to slow them down. DSE has a great chance of cracking the starting lineup 2nd 1/2 of the season if his outside shot starts falling consistently. We all know DD can play D but DSE may even be better.

JE see AW. JE will play primarily as AW's backup and I expect those night when he is on he'll be playing the 2 position also.

WL - I have no idea how good he is but if he can garner any playing time I'll be extremely impressed.

With the limited time, especially for the 1-2 position, I expect to see AW averaging 32 minutes per game.

 

[amckillip]

SM will play under 30 ...

I expect to see AW averaging 32 minutes per game.

I would stake a brew or a few (if we ever run into each other) that SM averages more minutes than AW...

 

[SFP]

I would stake a brew or a few (if we ever run into each other) that SM averages more minutes than AW...

Done! What's a brew cost? If SM has to play huge minutes that means we're not doing so well. The 1 and 2 position have 3 legitimate guys. Who do you see manning the 3 besides AW? This is how JL has coaches. SM played tons last year because there was not an alternative. SM will be nicked up and JL will have the ability to keep others in the game to keep him fresh. The only way SM plays more minutes is if AW gets injured and or JE hits his strides. I believe JE is a year away from being that player. Remember he was going to be RS.

 

[dogsrus]

I still think a WL redshirt HAS to be considered......I understand he MIGHT be good but the minutes just won't be there IMO.

 

[Dallas Brave]

Those same stats for Butler's D hold true for '00, '01 and '03 when the went to the NCAA's, 2nd round, and Sweet 16 respectively. You're also equating defense to height, which isn't true... I understand what you're saying, but there are FAR too many vairables and counter scenarios to suggest a 3-guard line-up can't work. Especially in the MVC. I could easily cite Villanova from 05-06 where they started 5 guards and and went to the Final Four.

I'm not saying having big guys in basketball doesn't help, but they have to be talented enough. We have solid big guys, but I don't think you could argue AT or WE is more talented than DSE, DD, SM, or AW with a straight face.

Sorry for being such a Pomeroy quant, but his conclusion is, " However, for most teams a great defense requires size at the four and the five. At least on the defensive end, basketball really is a big man??™s game."
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=82

I would definately argue that WE and AT are more talented than DSE, DD, SM, or AW at the 4/5 position. IMO, the big guys will be the key to being a .600 or better team this year. The guards are great and our competitive strength, but we can't over play them at the expense of the big guys or our defense will once again be awful as we have witnessed first hand for 3 years straight. 96 minutes need to go to WE, JP, AT, and AD.

 

[Out of Balance]

The statistical analysis provided on the Ken Pomeroy site for Bradley between the high water mark of 2005-06 and the struggles of the last 3 years http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Bradley indicate that we need a team that can play defense. Bradley has played an undersized line up the last 3 years and our defensive efficiency rank for those 3 years has been between 136-143. Our winning pct up through the end of the MVC tournament has been 53.1%, 56.3%, and 51.7% respectively and we have had pretty good guard play during that time.

I hope JL doesn't necessarily start the five best players, but the best combination of players that give us a balance of offense and defense. If we play TB at the 4 spot for the greater part of the season, I would predict we will end up up winning 50-55% of our games again unless the average quality of the MVC is down.

My Man I constantly try to convey this, but no one seems to get it.:lol: Now there is two of us, that get :lol: Sorry to steal your line, amckillip:lol: We play small again this year and let 5 or 6 players, 6'8 + sit and do nothing other than pick splenders out of each others butt then DB will be right:!: Fans will be pissed and JL will be looking for a new gig:-o