Loss to W. Carolina will not disqualify our NCAA Tournament chances

[SFP]

Man I'm really tired of this board ragging on me in the past few weeks. I can name 3 off the top of my head.

Take my word for it..it was definitely a joke

geez

I'll go crawl into a hole for the rest of the season.

Maybe it's your sarcasm! That's one thing the mid-west guys hate about east coasters. West coast guys do not even know what sarcasm is..;-)

Stick around as OOB says we have all been in the barrel before. Stick around long enough and it will happen again.

 

[Bradleyguy10]

Of course I'm sticking around it's too hard not to.

It's been like 30 minutes and I'm on here again already.

I should try not to be on this week though...finals.

Wish the students luck.

 

[SFP]

Of course I'm sticking around it's too hard not to.

It's been like 30 minutes and I'm on here again already.

I should try not to be on this week though...finals.

Wish the students luck.

I wish the students luck and all the sales and business guys with their end of the year quotas!:-o

 

[Chico]

Of course I'm sticking around it's too hard not to.

It's been like 30 minutes and I'm on here again already.

I should try not to be on this week though...finals.

Wish the students luck.

I know what you mean. With this weather I haven't left the house all day and have been on and off most of the day. Good luck to all the students with their finals.

 

[Out of Balance]

Someone help me out here:!: How do I delete all the posts between SFP's post and B4L post? I am getting tired of going "strolling" back and forth trying to determine which has the avatar that I will take to bed with me tonight:lol:

 

[Bravesfan]

I posted in the new AD thread regarding a comment by another posting how Xavier, Butler and Gonzaga don't lose at home to the "Western Carolina" type team. Not picking on that poster, just trying to get it into perspective. Here is some of what I posted and some other info to chew on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by xxxxx
I hope he has amazing ability because the Xaviers, Gonzagas and Butlers of this current world do not lose home basketball games to Western Carolina.

Those are some pretty darn good programs to aspire to be as good as. I welcome Cross to the Hilltop and hope he does well for Bradley.

But getting back to those 3 programs....

In the last 5 years, those 3 teams haven't lost many games at home. Worst Non-Conference home losses in the RPI for those 3 teams in the past 5 years:

Butler - lost to #163 Indiana St in '05-'06 season
Gonzaga - lost to #113 Portland St in '08-'09 season
Xavier - lost to #77 Bucknell in '06-'07 season

Bradley's worst Non-Conference home loss based on RPI in the last 5 seasons goes to #54 VCU in the '07-'08 season.

After Western Carolina beat Bradley last night, they have moved up to #25 in the RPI this season. (I know it's early to look at the RPI right now - just as it is early to consider losing to Western Carolina as such a terrible loss right now)

Also:

In the last 5 seasons, here are the Non-Conference losses with RPI's for each team.

Xavier = 5 losses
to #24 Butler 08-09
to #29 Miss St 04-05
to #39 Mia-Oh 04-05
to #44 Creighton 04-05
to #77 Bucknell 06-07

Gonzaga = 4 Losses
to #7 Memphis 08-09
to #8 Memphis 06-07
to #23 Washington St 07-08
to #113 Portland St 08-09

Butler = 3 Losses
to #7 SIU 06-07
to #10 Drake 07-08
to #163 Indiana St 05-06

Bradley = 3 Losses
to #16 Michigan St 07-08
to #24 Butler 08-09
to #54 VCU 07-08

Well these seem like some pretty bad losses against some great mid-major teams. And I agree that Bradley is not quite in the caliber of the teams you mentioned MacabreMob. But once again it shows that these "mid-major" teams we aspire to become also have bad nights at home from time to time.

I dare anyone else to prove to me that Bradley has had non-conference home losses worse than these other teams have had in recent memory.

 

[Bravesfan]

But unfortunately for Bradley, we and the MVC are not perceived as a "major" power. That perception helps uplift those teams from bad losses in the eyes of the selection committee.

True and that loss to WCU could very well cost us an NCAA Tournament bid. I don't disagree with that. But I guess I'm just a little perplexed as to why people are dismissing this team based on this loss. This is a much bigger issue in the short term than whether or not we will ultimately make the NCAA Tournament, which we will have plenty of time to discuss as the season unfolds.

 

[Bravesfan]

And all of those teams you list play in top conferences and have much greater exposure and name recognition. They are not playing the drakes of the world(though Iowa this year would qualify ) The WCU loss is too much to overcome unless we finish 1 or 2 in conference and 14-4. That coupled with 8-3 non con and at least 1 win in STL, would put us at 23-8 and squarely on the bubble. Get to the title game and I think 24 would be enough to merit at-large. That's a lot to ask of a team that hasn't finished better than 12-6 in Les's tenure. Also, don't forget the incredibly shrinking number of mids invited to the Dance(4 last year), and a considerably weaker valley with only 3 noteable non-con wins so far(ILL,Tulsa, BC) and that spells even further doom.

As I just stated above, my gripe is not so much about whether we make the NCAA Tournament or not. It's just the general negativity towards this team based on ONE loss. But you do bring up a great point chitown.

Based on your analysis, which is excellent btw, it will be very difficult for this team to earn an at-large bid based on what we have done so far even if we did beat WCU. Not only do you mention the fewer mids invited to the Big Dance in recent years and a somewhat weaker Valley, but there are at least six or seven mids already this year who have even better credentials than we do. So my point is we would still have to own the Valley this year to even get a sniff of the bubble. Who cares that we beat Illinois? If we finish 11-7 and in third place or below, that win won't matter to the committee. The good non-conference wins only come into play if we finish at the top of the Valley and win at least one game in St. Louis. That's why I think everyone is in a tizzy over one game. My point is it's only one small cog in the entire body of work, of which we still have a LOT of work ahead of us before we can even determine if we are NCAA worthy or not.

I just hope Bradley beats Loyola next week so we can put the WCU game behind us once and for all!

 

[Bravesfan]

IMO, We better beat IA. St. and they better finish in the top 1/2 of the Big 12,or even that W will not mean much. IA st. should with Brackens a 2nd team All-American,, according to SI.
If we lose to IA. St.. we better win The Valley and/or the tournament, or its off to some alphabetically, insignificant tournament. I do however, still consider the NIT significant. This year, not next!

The NIT has gained some respect in recent years due to the new selection criteria and seeding. Only the best low to mid-majors and BCS teams that fall short of the NCAA Tournament get invited, and it has become a very competitive tourney. Also this is a tournament where the mid-majors get a better shot of getting a good seed as Creighton, San Diego St and St. Mary's could attest to last year.

While I'm certainly not dissing the newer post season tourneys that we have been part of the last couple of years, the NIT would be indicative of a nice improvement for our team this year. And agreed Grassman, hopefully an NIT bid will be a stepping stone for bigger things to come next year.

 

[Guinness]

The NIT has gained some respect in recent years due to the new selection criteria and seeding. Only the best low to mid-majors and BCS teams that fall short of the NCAA Tournament get invited, and it has become a very competitive tourney. Also this is a tournament where the mid-majors get a better shot of getting a good seed as Creighton, San Diego St and St. Mary's could attest to last year.

While I'm certainly not dissing the newer post season tourneys that we have been part of the last couple of years, the NIT would be indicative of a nice improvement for our team this year. And agreed Grassman, hopefully an NIT bid will be a stepping stone for bigger things to come next year.

I would be happy with an NIT tournament. All the games are televised in HD :razz:

 

[TheAsianSensation]

If you take away autobids in the NIT, Bradley would've made the NIT field the past 2 years.

Making the NIT is nothing to scoff at, but it really doesn't represent measurable improvement, only very slight.

 

[Bravesfan]

I would be happy with an NIT tournament. All the games are televised in HD :razz:

There you go! A good reason to make this tournament.

 

[Bravesfan]

If you take away autobids in the NIT, Bradley would've made the NIT field the past 2 years.

Making the NIT is nothing to scoff at, but it really doesn't represent measurable improvement, only very slight.

Well that's true. That would make these other newer tournaments almost the same caliber of quality using that assessment of the NIT. But the NIT certainly garners far more respect amongst the college basketball elite than the upstart tourneys, at least for the time being.

 

[whyami]

Not trying to justify the Braves performance. They should have won the game, however; West Carolina is not a bad team.. Seems we aren't the only ones they supprised on the road. They beat Louisville 91-83 at Louisville. Tough thing for any team.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/men/gameflash/2009/12/12/59491_recap.html

 

[Bravesfan]

Not trying to justify the Braves performance. They should have won the game, however; West Carolina is not a bad team.. Seems we aren't the only ones they supprised on the road. They beat Louisville 91-83 at Louisville. Tough thing for any team.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/men/gameflash/2009/12/12/59491_recap.html

That's what I have been trying to say to certain posters here. Yes it would have been so much better to beat a great team which would not only improve our RPI, but doing it via a win. But it's not a killer loss like some have made it out to be. It may very well be the deciding factor regarding an at-large bid, but it shouldn't now as more people have taken notice of W. Carolina after their win at Louisville yesterday. And most importantly it doesn't "destroy" our season like some think it may have. Just wanting to wait and see where we will be in a month or so before I pass judgement on this team, that's all.

 

[BradleyBrave]

That's what I have been trying to say to certain posters here. Yes it would have been so much better to beat a great team which would not only improve our RPI, but doing it via a win. But it's not a killer loss like some have made it out to be. It may very well be the deciding factor regarding an at-large bid, but it shouldn't now as more people have taken notice of W. Carolina after their win at Louisville yesterday. And most importantly it doesn't "destroy" our season like some think it may have. Just wanting to wait and see where we will be in a month or so before I pass judgement on this team, that's all.

It will be a significant deciding factor. A key stat that's look at by the committee is record against other NCAA Tournament teams. In our non-con, I think we can assume that BYU, Oklahoma St, and Illinois will be NCAA teams. Iowa St is borderline, and Western Carolina should be but will likely have to win their conference tournament. Right now, we're 1-3 against potential tournament teams. If we're unable to win at Ames in a week, that's 1-4, and 0-1 at home. That's not gonna get it done.

 

[MacabreMob]

It will be a significant deciding factor. A key stat that's look at by the committee is record against other NCAA Tournament teams. In our non-con, I think we can assume that BYU, Oklahoma St, and Illinois will be NCAA teams. Iowa St is borderline, and Western Carolina should be but will likely have to win their conference tournament. Right now, we're 1-3 against potential tournament teams. If we're unable to win at Ames in a week, that's 1-4, and 0-1 at home. That's not gonna get it done.

And we know if we are on the bubble in the discussion with other teams on the bubble... all those other teams will be undefeated against NCAA teams and they won't have any "bad losses". ;-)

 

[whyami]

And we know if we are on the bubble in the discussion with other teams on the bubble... all those other teams will be undefeated against NCAA teams and they won't have any "bad losses". ;-)

I'm not ready to vote them into the postseason 65 club yet, they still have a lot more work to do. The reality of it is though, almost all teams have "bad losses", they just need to be kept to a minimum. Right now, when I watch the Braves, I see a team still searching for who they are. In 2006 they were searching for that a lot later into the season so I still have hope that they can manage something. It just really all depends. Beating Iowa St would be another step and getting and beating a decent team in the Bracket Buster would be another. Right now, I see them making steps in the right direction and am hopeful that we may be in for quite a ride the next few years on the Hilltop.

 

[Bravesfan]

It will be a significant deciding factor. A key stat that's look at by the committee is record against other NCAA Tournament teams. In our non-con, I think we can assume that BYU, Oklahoma St, and Illinois will be NCAA teams. Iowa St is borderline, and Western Carolina should be but will likely have to win their conference tournament. Right now, we're 1-3 against potential tournament teams. If we're unable to win at Ames in a week, that's 1-4, and 0-1 at home. That's not gonna get it done.

I definitely agree that the collective record against NCAA teams will keep us out, especially if we lose to Iowa St. But I was only talking about how one specific game will not kill us. But you are right, I'm much more concerned about the collective record against good teams. That's why the Iowa St. game is a huge one for us.

 

[Bravesfan]

I'm not ready to vote them into the postseason 65 club yet, they still have a lot more work to do. The reality of it is though, almost all teams have "bad losses", they just need to be kept to a minimum. Right now, when I watch the Braves, I see a team still searching for who they are. In 2006 they were searching for that a lot later into the season so I still have hope that they can manage something. It just really all depends. Beating Iowa St would be another step and getting and beating a decent team in the Bracket Buster would be another. Right now, I see them making steps in the right direction and am hopeful that we may be in for quite a ride the next few years on the Hilltop.

Absolutely. All teams have bad losses. I will say this though. With the Valley down compared to where they were in 2006, Bradley will have far fewer opportunities for quality conference wins like they did in 2006. In 2006 there were six teams in the Valley with top 50 RPI's. We may be lucky to have three this year, and if Bradley is one of them, then two would be the max. That's why the UNI games are critical for us. More likely though we would need a conference tournament championship to get us in even with some quality non-conference wins. But you're right whyami, this team should only get much better as the season goes on and that gives them some hope for a great year.