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Matt Hackman 2026 MVC tourney seeding probabilities
- Thread starter 64NIT
- Start date
See my post here-
The final weekend of MVC regular season games includes 1 game on Saturday. Feb. 28 and 5 games on Sunday, March 1.
This unusual format requires Evansville to play games on both Saturday and Sunday to complete their schedule. This was caused by the postponement of the January 25 game with SIU at Evansville, due to a snow storm.
The MVC rescheduled that game for Sunday. March 1-
mvc-sports.com
Sat. Feb. 28- https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/scoreboard/_/date/20260301/group/18
Sun, Mar. 1-...
This unusual format requires Evansville to play games on both Saturday and Sunday to complete their schedule. This was caused by the postponement of the January 25 game with SIU at Evansville, due to a snow storm.
The MVC rescheduled that game for Sunday. March 1-
MVC Announces Schedule Updates for Men's Basketball
The Conference has announced a date and time for the postponed men's basketball contest between Evansville and Southern Illinois, originally scheduled for Sunday, Jan. 25.
mvc-sports.com
Sun, Mar. 1-...
LittleBrave
Well-known member
So is there any realistic chance we end up with the 6th seed?
I wanted to get Tix for Sat session in St. Lou, but if we end up 6th, I won't be making the trip.
I wanted to get Tix for Sat session in St. Lou, but if we end up 6th, I won't be making the trip.
Yes, there is a chance Bradley could fall to the #6 seed. As far as I can tell, there is one scenario where that might happen...
If Bradley loses to Murray State, and UIC loses at Indiana State, and if Illinois State beats Belmont and Valparaiso wins at Evansville, it would create a 4-way tie for 3rd place with 4 teams finishing with 12-8 records- Bradley, UIC, Illinois State, and Valparaiso
The MVC Tournament tiebreaker involves a theoretical "mini round-robin" and comparing the cumulative records of all the tied teams-
MVC MBB Tiebreaker (PDF) - Missouri Valley Conference
mvc-sports.com
"If three or more teams are tied, regular-season competition among the tied teams shall be pooled into a "mini round-robin." Teams shall be ranked according to their cumulative record against the other tied teams. If at any point a tie is broken using the multiple-tie tiebreaker procedures and only two teams remain tied, the remaining teams shall revert to the two-way tiebreaker" (which is head to head, followed by NET rank).
The results would be-
UIC 4-2 (UIC beat Bradley twice, beat ISU twice, and lost to Valpo twice)
Valparaiso 4-2 (beat UIC twice, and split with both Bradley and ISU)
ISU 2-4 (lost to UIC twice, and split with Bradley and Valparaiso)
Bradley 2-4 (lost to UIC twice, and split with ISU and Valparaiso)
So UIC and Valpo win the tiebreaker over BU and ISU, and Valpo wins the #3 seed by virtue of beating UIC twice. UIC becomes the #4 seed.
BU and ISU split, so ISU wins the final tiebreaker against Bradley because currently, Illinois State's NET is 90, Bradley's is 114.
Bradley loses the tiebreaker to all 3 other teams in that 4-way tie scenario, and would result in Bradley dropping to the #6 seed.
The final seeds would be: Belmont is #1, Murray State #2, Valpo #3, UIC #4, ISU #5, and Bradley #6
My only concern was playing on Thursday; I prefer 3 or 6 to avoid having to play Belmont on day 2 if we win the first game. We can beat and lose to any team in the top 7-8 of this tournament, with how erratic we have been this year. Matchup-wise, I don't think there's a team we are a terrible matchup with, but I do think there are ref assignments that tend to benefit us lol.
Dubl R 1
Well-known member
lol man thats rough for regular seasonSee my post here-
The final weekend of MVC regular season games includes 1 game on Saturday. Feb. 28 and 5 games on Sunday, March 1.
This unusual format requires Evansville to play games on both Saturday and Sunday to complete their schedule. This was caused by the postponement of the January 25 game with SIU at Evansville, due to a snow storm.
The MVC rescheduled that game for Sunday. March 1-
Sat. Feb. 28- https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/scoreboard/_/date/20260301/group/18MVC Announces Schedule Updates for Men's Basketball
The Conference has announced a date and time for the postponed men's basketball contest between Evansville and Southern Illinois, originally scheduled for Sunday, Jan. 25.
Sun, Mar. 1-...
Dubl R 1
Well-known member
I think there are 2 teams that we don't match up that well with naturally...it could be overcome, but this team hasn't shown the level of attention to detail and or in game IQ to be able to pull it off yet. Those 2 teams are IMO
1. UIC...their hectic style and athleticism gives us some problems...we showed the toughness and effort required to beat them in the 2nd half of the game in Chicago, but mental breakdowns in the zone, and personnel awareness beat us where it counts....gotta have all of it to beat them...hopefully we could put it all together if there is a 3rd meeting.
2. UNI...We barely beat them at home without 2 of their starters/better players....and were beaten soundly at their place when really they didn't even play that well. I think their defense gives us problems...they seem to have our number on how to defend our high ball screen, and we conversely have trouble defending their ball screens, they beat us a lot on the pick and roll. Their interior defenders have size and strength, and we have struggled to score on them inside. We would either need to shoot really well from 3 to beat them, or our bigs would have to show something more than they have so far this season. They also don't turn the ball over much, which means we have to score in the half court.
Jury still out on Murray St....kind of an anomaly at their place, they shot lights out, and it kinda became contagious...hard to judge that early game at their place. Maybe we will know more after the game Sunday.
We could lose to anybody on any given night but I think these 2 are naturally the toughest matchups for us with style of play.
Belmont...as good as they are, I think athletically we are capable of giving Belmont some issues, and we are kind of well stocked to defend them. Timo seems to play well vs them, and is a good matchup with Dillon, and I think we can score well against them....they are just so dangerous with the 3 ball that it can change the game real fast...need to obviously run them off the 3 point line, or hope they aren't shooting well.
ISU (RED)....ANYTHING GOES.....such a rivalry that normal analysis doesn't always apply...somebody will get that uplifting emotional performance that's an X-Factor, just depends on which team gets it
The rest of the league, I think IF we play just play well, it would take better than their average efforts form them to beat us.
If we think projecting the final seeding in the MVC is confusing with one game left, check out the Sun Belt Conference.
With one game left tonight, there are 7 teams within one game of 1st place, and with a chance at a share of the title. In fact, it is possible that after tonight's final games, there could be a 7-way tie for the regular season title!
Sun Belt Standings- https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/standings/_/group/27
www.x.com/SunBelt/status/2027443771814666635
With one game left tonight, there are 7 teams within one game of 1st place, and with a chance at a share of the title. In fact, it is possible that after tonight's final games, there could be a 7-way tie for the regular season title!
Sun Belt Standings- https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/standings/_/group/27
www.x.com/SunBelt/status/2027443771814666635
The SunBelt came close to a 7-way tie in their weekend of games. But Troy managed to win their last game and ended up as the sole champion of the league. There is a 6-way tie for 2nd place-
This is exactly why the SBC using the step-ladder format for their tournament is ludicrous. Arkansas State is, by many metrics, the top team in the conference, but due to the tiebreaker they end up with the seventh seed and would have to win five games in five days to go dancing. The WCC is moving on from the step-ladder once the Zags leave for a reason