• Welcome to BradleyFans.com! Visitors are welcome, but we encourage you to sign up and register as a member. It's free and takes only a few seconds. Just click on the link to Register at the top right of the page, and follow instructions. If you have any problems or questions, click on the link at the bottom right of the page to Contact Us.

Pomeroy Projections

These Pomeroy projections are comical this early in the season.
He has projected Drake to go 23-4 and 15-3 in the Valley this year.
Ummm. Drake...2007 MVC Champs? That's rich.
 
After 13 games, Pomeroy is accurate with a 92% success rate.

Between games 8-12, it ranges from 80-88%.

IMO, Pomeroy should be viewed significantly more favorably with the NCAA selection committee.
 
ER3 said:
These Pomeroy projections are comical this early in the season.
He has projected Drake to go 23-4 and 15-3 in the Valley this year.
Ummm. Drake...2007 MVC Champs? That's rich.
Click to expand...

Oh come on now.... I guess those Drake wins against UC San Diego, Cornell, North Carolina Central,and Duquesne mean something
statistically!;)
 
I wouldn't say that, but efficiency must count for something, as it truly seems to be the basis for success. I think it is a clear indicator that Drake could be the surprise team in the Valley.

Obviously, had they not played two non-DI's we would have a better picture of where they're at.
 
It's WAY too early to know anything about predicting the final record accurately. Teams gell in conference season and get going while others collapse. As some of you pointed out, Drake has little chance of winning the conference, especially considering their level of competition so far. This Pomeroy must know something about some injuries happening later in the season or something...lol.
 
squirrel said:
I wouldn't say that, but efficiency must count for something, as it truly seems to be the basis for success. I think it is a clear indicator that Drake could be the surprise team in the Valley.

Obviously, had they not played two non-DI's we would have a better picture of where they're at.
Click to expand...

I don't know the exact formula for Pomeroy's 'efficiency', but I believe one major component of it is turnovers. With our propensity to turn the ball over, I am not surprised would would rate low in this area. Traditionally team that turn the ball over a lot aren't very good, so I can see how that kind of indicator would project a poor record. Hopefully BU corrects that problem, both for projection's sake and for our record's sake.
 
Stryker said:
It's WAY too early to know anything about predicting the final record accurately. Teams gell in conference season and get going while others collapse. As some of you pointed out, Drake has little chance of winning the conference, especially considering their level of competition so far. This Pomeroy must know something about some injuries happening later in the season or something...lol.
Click to expand...


Guess this is the point where common sense comes in to overide
statistical formulas!
 
BradleyBrave said:
I don't know the exact formula for Pomeroy's 'efficiency', but I believe one major component of it is turnovers. With our propensity to turn the ball over, I am not surprised would would rate low in this area. Traditionally team that turn the ball over a lot aren't very good, so I can see how that kind of indicator would project a poor record. Hopefully BU corrects that problem, both for projection's sake and for our record's sake.
Click to expand...

Efficiency is simply this: points per 100 possessions
Pomeroy is simply a ranking of efficiency (offensive and defensive), after applying the Pythagorean theorem (which assumes everyone plays the same or typical schedule).

This stuff will all work itself out. Given BU's style of play, our success is directly predicated on sheer # of possessions. We can and should outscore the vast majority of teams we play, but if teams are successful in slowing us down, such as UIC did, and Butler, SIU, and UNI will try to, we won't be very good.

If we play the way we want, very few teams can play with us for a full 40 minutes. The 2nd half of Loyola (or UNI from 2 seasons ago) is a perfect example. Add constant improvement on defense throughout the year and we can be right where we have been the last couple years.

But our efficiency is dependent on our ability to play our game, and attention to details.

If you have one stinker in their (our UIC game) it will affect the Pomeroy projection until you get a more representative sample.
 
squirrel said:
After 13 games, Pomeroy is accurate with a 92% success rate.

Between games 8-12, it ranges from 80-88%.

IMO, Pomeroy should be viewed significantly more favorably with the NCAA selection committee.
Click to expand...

I predict
His prediction on Bradleys record WILL BEl be part of his 8% WRONG:mad:
 
These projections are fairly ridiculous. Our home record through the years substantiates better results.

Jim Les could suit up tomorrow and play point guard for the balance of the season and we will still beat Drake and Illinois State at home!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top