Give full credit to the Braves for beating Kansas and Pitt. They've had an amazing tournament so far. Having said that, we will beat them the same way we have beaten ORU and Bucknell.
Their win against Kansas was a very good one, but we should look at Kansas' path to get here and ask if they were overrated. First off, the only good team in the Big 12 is Texas. Oklahoma was exposed as a bad team and nobody else was any good. Kansas was 16-2 coming into the Bradley game. They have to be given a lot of credit, but most of the teams that they beat were mediocre or had very slow guard play. The exception was Texas. When they played a rested Texas team they lost by 25 points. When they played Texas in a 3 games in 3 days scenario Kansas beat them by 12. Texas has zero depth so that is no surprise. Kansas was very similar to our team that lost to Arizona State 3 years ago. They were young and folded against an older, more disciplined team.
The Pitt game was a very good matchup for Bradley. They didn't have to deal with any athleticism and got two quick fouls on Krauser. Krauser, Gray and Kendall were the only players that could hurt them and all had foul trouble early. Pitt, like Bradley has very little firepower and has a very hard time coming from behind.
Our game will go the same way that our previous games have gone. We might start off a little sluggish or let Bradley hang around, but in the end our defense and depth will get them. We have thrived because of two things: Defensive intensity and great shot selection. We are no longer letting teams off the hook by putting up bad shots. All of our shots are either high percentage shots or uncontested 3's.
Everyone talks about how Bradley has two 7 footers but only one of them (O'Bryant) gets time and puts up good stats. Size is actually in our favour, as once you get by O'Bryant, we are bigger and longer than them. Needless to say we are far more athletic than they are.
G Bennett 6'0
G Ruffin 5'10"
F Wright 6'4"
F Sommerville 6'7"
C O'Bryant 7'0"
G Franklin 6'0"
G Crouch 6'5"
F Andrews 6'8"
DWash and AA are actually taller than the Bradley guards so we can play both at the same time if we want. Their wing players are all in the 6'4" range so we can come at them with a combination of CDR, Antonio, Rodney, Shawne and Dozier. Bradley is used to having their small guards and wing players penetrate and get off the shots that they want but this won't happen against us. We will be on every pass and shot that they attempt.
The compelling matchup will be against Sommerville, who is their best player. I think that he may be too quick for Shawne but I like the idea of having Rodney or Dozier on him. I think that both will be able to do a great job against him. Shawne is the wildcard. When Bradley puts Andrews in the game I am 100% sure that Shawne will be guarding him. Otherwise, Shawne may have problems finding someone to guard. Sommerville is more athletic than him, and Wright at 6'4" might be too quick.
When Shawne is in the game he will have to do two of these three in order to get a lot of time. He will have to show that he can defend Sommerville one on one. He will have to show that he can do damage against Sommerville in the post. IMO, the game within a game with Sommerville and Shawne will involve foul trouble. Whoever is able to impose their will on the other will have the biggest impact on the game. IF Shawne is on the bench with two quick fouls it doesn't affect us that much because Rodney, Dozier or CDR can guard Sommerville. IF Shawne can get Sommerville on the bench with fouls then Bradley has no chance to win.
On our side, Rodney will be an almost impossible matchup for them. They will have to use Sommerville on him which will take up a lot of energy, or Andrews who is too bulky, or Wright who is only 6'4". IF Rodney can get off quickly and not take bad shots we'll have an easy time of it.
Bradley shoots okay but not amazingly well. Their big men shoot for a high percentage but after that they average in the low 40's as a team. We shoot better than they do, especially now that we are taking good shots. I look for Bradley to shoot 38% for the game and around 30% from 3 point land.
Overall, this will be an 8 to 15 point game in our favour, even though I'm not taking Bradley lightly. As I stated, I believe that at 33, they have the highest RPI of any 13 seed in the history of the tournament. If they had have gotten good value for their RPI they would have been an 8 or 9 seed - very similar to Bucknell. They have played very well, but like most teams have not played anyone like us this season. I am confident that our defensive intensity will be amazing. There are only two things that can derail us. The first is that we stop having the discipline to only take good shots. The second thing is foul trouble. As far as foul trouble goes we will only be in a bad spot of both of any of these sets of players gets in trouble. DWash/AA, or CDR/Antonio, or Shawne/Carney, or Dorsey/Cooper/Waki. If one of the players in each group stays clear of foul trouble we'll be fine.
Memphis 76
Bradley 65