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Two-bid league?

B

BUSongwriter

Member
With Drake winning again today and remaining undefeated at 7-0, it has me wondering if the Valley might have two teams with really impressive records come March. (I think we know the other team. :)) And if so, I'd hope it would be difficult for the committee to keep one team out. But then I suppose history says to be nervous if you don't win our tournament.
 
I don’t know - if ISU couldn’t get in last year then I have serious doubts. Maybe if we handle Drake and win the league - since Drake is rated highest than us - MVC could have 2 bids.
 
BUSongwriter said:
With Drake winning again today and remaining undefeated at 7-0, it has me wondering if the Valley might have two teams with really impressive records come March. (I think we know the other team. :)) And if so, I'd hope it would be difficult for the committee to keep one team out. But then I suppose history says to be nervous if you don't win our tournament.
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It's possible, though the odds are not great. Here are the current MVC team NET rankings - https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2025/conference/Missouri-Valley

Bradley is at 57 and Drake is at 47. If the MVC team vying for an at-large bid got their NET up into the 20's or at worst the low 30's it would be possible. They would have to win most of their remaining games and avoid any bad losses.
 
Yeah, Songwriter, that’s a tough one. If 28 wins couldn’t get an at large last year, I don’t like our chances of getting two in ever again. Seems pretty obvious the NCAA is squeezing out mid-majors a little bit more every year, sadly.
 
I agree it is tough but every year is different. There were an unusual number of bid stealers last year. Teams that won tournaments that would not have gotten in otherwise.
 
Those NET rankings are from last march, they do have the present win/loss records bit rankings no. Look in the 20's and you'll find ISUB there
 
Also ISUB, couldn't win any of their big non con games, and lost at home to ISUR, but if Drake and Bradley take care of the remainder of non con and don't lose to the to bad Valley teams then I think it is possible for 2 teams.
 
Rickp1959 said:
Those NET rankings are from last march, they do have the present win/loss records bit rankings no. Look in the 20's and you'll find ISUB there
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Yep, you're right. The NCAA hasn't started posting 2024-25 NET rankings yet.
But here are the current MVC RPI numbers, which approximate the NET rankings-
Drake 17
Bradley 38
Missouri State 84
Northern Iowa 105
UIC 118
Murray State 128
Belmont 151
Southern Illinois 236
Illinois State 245
Evansville 247
Valparaiso 273
Indiana State 326
 
Tommy said:
Yeah, Songwriter, that’s a tough one. If 28 wins couldn’t get an at large last year, I don’t like our chances of getting two in ever again. Seems pretty obvious the NCAA is squeezing out mid-majors a little bit more every year, sadly.
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Ditto Tommy!
 
Stryker said:
We will not have a signature win. At WSU was basically our only shot.
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It’s really difficult to know where everything will stand in several months, but I agree it’s hard to envision a scenario where we aren’t all but perfect ending in an at large bid.

I stumbled across this site and don’t know how great it is, but whatever math it uses puts us at around 50% tournament odds at 28 wins: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/bradley-braves/bracketology

If we win all three remaining non-con games we are 10-1. If we go let’s say 18-2 in conference that gets us to 28-3, which this site claims is a toss up. We win one Arch Madness game you’re at 63%, 2 wins is 76%. 3 would be automatic of course.

So essentially we have to run the table with maybe 1-2 slip ups (probably on the road against decent teams) and then make the championship of Arch Madness for it even to be a possibility.

This schedule wasn’t the best given the circumstances, and the WSU loss hurt so much because of this exact conversation (that’s why I didn’t think it was an overreaction to be upset about an early loss).

Having said that, this team is still talented and I’m going to enjoy the ride. Hopefully we have an arch madness run in us to punctuate a fun regular season.

Here is Drake’s page for reference: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/drake-bulldogs/bracketology. The simulation math with them makes 29 wins the start of discussing them as an at large. So both teams would have to have around 30 wins at the end of the season. I guess not impossible, but seems pretty unlikely. Even then it’s not a guarantee.
 
BUfan14 said:
It’s really difficult to know where everything will stand in several months, but I agree it’s hard to envision a scenario where we aren’t all but perfect ending in an at large bid.

I stumbled across this site and don’t know how great it is, but whatever math it uses puts us at around 50% tournament odds at 28 wins: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/bradley-braves/bracketology

If we win all three remaining non-con games we are 10-1. If we go let’s say 18-2 in conference that gets us to 28-3, which this site claims is a toss up. We win one Arch Madness game you’re at 63%, 2 wins is 76%. 3 would be automatic of course.

So essentially we have to run the table with maybe 1-2 slip ups (probably on the road against decent teams) and then make the championship of Arch Madness for it even to be a possibility.

This schedule wasn’t the best given the circumstances, and the WSU loss hurt so much because of this exact conversation (that’s why I didn’t think it was an overreaction to be upset about an early loss).

Having said that, this team is still talented and I’m going to enjoy the ride. Hopefully we have an arch madness run in us to punctuate a fun regular season.

Here is Drake’s page for reference: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/drake-bulldogs/bracketology. The simulation math with them makes 29 wins the start of discussing them as an at large. So both teams would have to have around 30 wins at the end of the season. I guess not impossible, but seems pretty unlikely. Even then it’s not a guarantee.
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Yep. It is a sad state of affairs in the MVC this year. Basically no quality wins in the entire conference. It is going to be very weak. Which means BU should be able to get a 18-2 record or similar in the regular season. But if I was a betting man, its either win on Sunday in St. Louis or the NIT again this year.
 
Stryker said:
Yep. It is a sad state of affairs in the MVC this year. Basically no quality wins in the entire conference. It is going to be very weak. Which means BU should be able to get a 18-2 record or similar in the regular season. But if I was a betting man, its either win on Sunday in St. Louis or the NIT again this year.
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Drake definitely has the best noncon wins, but I agree I don't see a scenario where we get in without winning StL.
 
What is maddening to me is that Power 6 teams like UConn -- as just one example -- can tank in the early season, even losing three in a row to unranked teams, and still have plenty of hope for an NCAA bid because a) the name on the front of their jerseys, and b) they can get some coveted Quad 1 wins later on. Meanwhile, we have practically no room for error and even then have to win our conference tournament -- which UConn likely won't have to.

One more rant before I hit "post reply." The ESPN announcer on the Drake-Vanderbilt game promised that the nation would be hearing about Bennett Stirtz all season. It made me laugh, not because he doesn't deserve it -- he is a magician with the ball and really fun to watch -- but let's see how many times Drake, or Bradley, are nationally televised until March. I hope I'm wrong, and that both teams (especially Bradley) have stellar seasons that get national attention.

Rant over. The life of a mid-major in 2024. Sigh. Go Braves tomorrow night!
 
BUSongwriter said:
What is maddening to me is that Power 6 teams like UConn -- as just one example -- can tank in the early season, even losing three in a row to unranked teams, and still have plenty of hope for an NCAA bid because a) the name on the front of their jerseys, and b) they can get some coveted Quad 1 wins later on. Meanwhile, we have practically no room for error and even then have to win our conference tournament -- which UConn likely won't have to.

One more rant before I hit "post reply." The ESPN announcer on the Drake-Vanderbilt game promised that the nation would be hearing about Bennett Stirtz all season. It made me laugh, not because he doesn't deserve it -- he is a magician with the ball and really fun to watch -- but let's see how many times Drake, or Bradley, are nationally televised until March. I hope I'm wrong, and that both teams (especially Bradley) have stellar seasons that get national attention.

Rant over. The life of a mid-major in 2024. Sigh. Go Braves tomorrow night!
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Well said BUSongwriter! My thoughts exactly!
 
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