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Valley Down? No good wins and some early season losses

Surely you guys are kidding. Right? Why should a school like SIU be rewarded for getting their head kicked in vs. Duke and UCLA last year only to lay an egg the rest of the season.

Plain and simple, inferior scheduling should begat inferior teams. When you play someone of substance the cream should rise to the top. If you can't beat a team who "schedule's down" when you play head to head, you certainly can't go crying about their schedule.

Just win baby! That's what Al says.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
It's way too early to use SoS and RPI with any kind of accuracy whatsoever.
Click to expand...

I agree COMPLETELY.

I believe (with the added # of games able to be played, the opportunity to play in non-exempt tournies each year, and the season starting earlier) the SoS and RPI can begin (I say BEGIN) to make a little sense (I say LITTLE) in mid-January.
 
The bottom line is that although "scheduling down" does hurt every other team in the conference a little, it especially hurts the team that does it, and it is it's own punishment.
There is simply no better example of that than Illinois State the past 2 years, and probably this year, as well.

They may be the only team in the history of the NCAA from a top 10 conference (since they went to 64/65 teams) who has not gotten an NCAA at-large bid despite 24-25 wins for two straight years, and this season will likely make it three.
 
I believe ISU is doing no one in the Valley, including themselves, any favors with their incredibly weak scheduling, but if numbers do not lie the last two seasons their RPI was way higher than ours.

2007-2008 RPI
ISU 37
BU 104

2008-2009 RPI
ISU 47
BU 98

They have also landed in better tournaments both seasons. We seem to want to beat this issue into the ground without looking at the facts.

Apparently they don't care and when you look at the above numbers who can blame them.
 
Da Coach said:
... despite 24-25 wins for two straight years, and this season will likely make it three.
Click to expand...

not so fast...after last night's game, where they struggled to beat a really weak UIC team, I have to think they won't get to 24-25 even with those cupcakes they have lined up.
BTW - Pomeroy now has the Redbirds heading where they belong..
he has them rated 8th in the MVC despite being 3-0 and has their SOS at 326.
 
tornado said:
not so fast...after last night's game, where they struggled to beat a really weak UIC team, I have to think they won't get to 24-25 even with those cupcakes they have lined up.
BTW - Pomeroy now has the Redbirds heading where they belong..
he has them rated 8th in the MVC despite being 3-0 and has their SOS at 326.
Click to expand...

As TAS has pointed out earlier in this thread, it's way too early to worry about these numbers. Currently Kentucky, Oklahoma, Prov. and Michigan are just some of the schools ranked behind ISU right now. Just goes to show that some are spending way too much time pouring over numbers this early in the season.
 
versace4pres said:
I believe ISU is doing no one in the Valley, including themselves, any favors with their incredibly weak scheduling, but if numbers do not lie the last two seasons their RPI was way higher than ours.

2007-2008 RPI
ISU 37
BU 104

2008-2009 RPI
ISU 47
BU 98

They have also landed in better tournaments both seasons. We seem to want to beat this issue into the ground without looking at the facts.

Apparently they don't care and when you look at the above numbers who can blame them.
Click to expand...


The whole point is not that ISU is putting up better numbers.

The whole point of criticizing ISU is that their schedule brings down the SoS of all teams in the conference. To put it another way, we don't care if ISU harms itself. We DO care if they harm the conference as a whole.
 
I agree with you on the SOS numbers, but really with this much of a spread regarding RPI who is really doing more damage? Team A at #47 or Team B at #98. Isn't SOS factored into a team's RPI? Just asking.
 
Oh no.....here we go again. The same tired beaten down arguments with pomeroy, rpi, etc. and how we shouldn't use them while T still uses them to prove a point....this got old quickly last year and it's already gotten old this year with just this thread.
 
simple point - if you win against good opponents, then your RPI will NOT plummet and your SOS will not be 326..
so no matter how early and how unwilling some are to accept facts, the data is just data and there is no law against citing it and discussing it.
If their SOS or RPI was all that much better than Bradley's you can be sure the ISU fans would have 10 threads going on it.
 
versace4pres said:
I agree with you on the SOS numbers, but really with this much of a spread regarding RPI who is really doing more damage? Team A at #47 or Team B at #98. Isn't SOS factored into a team's RPI? Just asking.
Click to expand...

It's actually a lot closer than you'd think.

Warning: Math Ahead

For the part of the RPI formula that is 50% SoS, Team A has a better record than Team B and therefore is more beneficial.

For the part of the RPI formula that is 25% SoS, Team B contributes better to the Valley than Team A.

Now the question is, basically, is Team B's difference in contribution in the second category more than twice as better as Team A's difference in contribution in the first category? Without typing all the math out, I'll say that it's very close.

Now, for Team A and their 47 RPI. They can maintain that same RPI ranking by playing a tougher schedule and losing a couple more games. Therefore, their RPI stays at 47, but the schedule boost gets spread around to its opponents (namely, the other Valley schools).




Remember, it's the actual strength of schedule and records in terms of winning percentage that counts in the formula, not the actual ranking from 1 to 340. So just because a team is higher in the RPI doesn't quite mean they're "contributing more" to the RPIs of their opponents. Close, but not quite.
 
Thanks TAS. I understand the fluidity of the numbers as they change day to day. It really becomes a "snapshot." Pomeroy has Kentucky at #175. Who thinks that will stay? DePaul was #1. Really? I just think we get bogged down in pouring over ratings, RPIs and SOS way too early in the season. I'll make a bet that when we stomp all over Presbyterian our numbers will fall, only to be made up for in Vegas.

Personally, I don't care where we are now, I care where we are in March.

Thanks for the RPI breakdown.
 
I don't know about you, but the Valley is looking a bit stronger after tonight with WSU beating Iowa, Indiana St beating W. Kentucky, and UNI beating Boston College last night. We just have to let the season play out as always before evaluating.
 
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