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BracketBusters 2009

TheAsianSensation said:
Bradley - best team available not in BracketBusters.

It's going to happen. It's going to happen.
Click to expand...

Or.... you made me think a minute. Are you suggesting down the road? Like maybe next year? Like... Bradley gets frustrated with opponents in BracketBusters and decides to pull out of the event for next year? ;-)
 
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Hmm. I don't feel like we've played so badly in the last couple of weeks to completely play ourselves off of TV...yet that's exactly what's happened. I guess Creighton's continued ineptitude at home will be our undoing. Very disappointing to not get a TV game.
 
I have a good conspiracy theory for the nuts out there: ESPN may be popping at-large bubbles in one week.

There aren't that many chances at a quality win this year. So, if a mid-major bubble team doesn't get a chance to play one in BB, ESPN has effectively cut their chances at an at-large bid because of ESPN's choice of matchups.

I said it myself before: The pairing process may pop bubbles. Note, I didn't say the actual games and results would. The pairing process. For example, if ESPN decides to give ISU to Niagara instead of Siena, ESPN has just popped ISU's bubble because ISU's best chance at a signature win was taken away because ESPN preferred another matchup for TV purposes.

Take this a step further: ESPN sits and says, "OK, there are 4 NCAA locks. Butler, Davidson, St Mary's, Utah St (USU is hardly a lock, but play along for a second). "Let's match up those 4 against each other. That way, no bubble team plays one of the 4 and therefore don't get a chance at a win that could push them in the field".

"Then, take the most likely bubble teams, and make sure they don't play each other. ISU may need the win, but if we give them Niagara, their profile isn't helped." ESPN can then manipulate the matchups to make sure as few mid major teams are helped, therefore making the bubble less crowded and allowing more ACC and Big East teams in.



I'll be watching very closely to see what happens. This year, moreso than other years, seems very easy to manipulate.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
I have a good conspiracy theory for the nuts out there: ESPN may be popping at-large bubbles in one week.

There aren't that many chances at a quality win this year. So, if a mid-major bubble team doesn't get a chance to play one in BB, ESPN has effectively cut their chances at an at-large bid because of ESPN's choice of matchups.

I said it myself before: The pairing process may pop bubbles. Note, I didn't say the actual games and results would. The pairing process. For example, if ESPN decides to give ISU to Niagara instead of Siena, ESPN has just popped ISU's bubble because ISU's best chance at a signature win was taken away because ESPN preferred another matchup for TV purposes.

Take this a step further: ESPN sits and says, "OK, there are 4 NCAA locks. Butler, Davidson, St Mary's, Utah St (USU is hardly a lock, but play along for a second). "Let's match up those 4 against each other. That way, no bubble team plays one of the 4 and therefore don't get a chance at a win that could push them in the field".

"Then, take the most likely bubble teams, and make sure they don't play each other. ISU may need the win, but if we give them Niagara, their profile isn't helped." ESPN can then manipulate the matchups to make sure as few mid major teams are helped, therefore making the bubble less crowded and allowing more ACC and Big East teams in.



I'll be watching very closely to see what happens. This year, moreso than other years, seems very easy to manipulate.
Click to expand...

All the more reason the BracketBuster being in bed with ESPN is flawed, and Bradley should get out of it. It's just like all the other bureaucratic nonsense going on in this country...this just hits home a lot more.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
I have a good conspiracy theory for the nuts out there: ESPN may be popping at-large bubbles in one week.

There aren't that many chances at a quality win this year. So, if a mid-major bubble team doesn't get a chance to play one in BB, ESPN has effectively cut their chances at an at-large bid because of ESPN's choice of matchups.

I said it myself before: The pairing process may pop bubbles. Note, I didn't say the actual games and results would. The pairing process. For example, if ESPN decides to give ISU to Niagara instead of Siena, ESPN has just popped ISU's bubble because ISU's best chance at a signature win was taken away because ESPN preferred another matchup for TV purposes.

Take this a step further: ESPN sits and says, "OK, there are 4 NCAA locks. Butler, Davidson, St Mary's, Utah St (USU is hardly a lock, but play along for a second). "Let's match up those 4 against each other. That way, no bubble team plays one of the 4 and therefore don't get a chance at a win that could push them in the field".

"Then, take the most likely bubble teams, and make sure they don't play each other. ISU may need the win, but if we give them Niagara, their profile isn't helped." ESPN can then manipulate the matchups to make sure as few mid major teams are helped, therefore making the bubble less crowded and allowing more ACC and Big East teams in.



I'll be watching very closely to see what happens. This year, moreso than other years, seems very easy to manipulate.
Click to expand...

I LOVE IT!

I LOVE the Cynical AsianSensation!

I LOVE the Conspiracy Theory stuff!

LOVE IT!!!
 
It seems to have gotten really simple.

Beat ISU and you're the clear #2 in the Valley pecking order for road teams, and you're on the Deuce.

Lose to ISU and you're 3rd in the pecking order for Valley road teams and there won't be enough room and you're stuck playing a useless 100+ team with no TV.

:)
 
TheAsianSensation said:
It seems to have gotten really simple.

Beat ISU and you're the clear #2 in the Valley pecking order for road teams, and you're on the Deuce.

Lose to ISU and you're 3rd in the pecking order for Valley road teams and there won't be enough room and you're stuck playing a useless 100+ team with no TV.

:)
Click to expand...

Very well said AS. I woulda updated RPI's and then made a prediction today, but I'm gonna wait til tomorrow after the MVC is done with their mid-week games. I'll try to update again Saturday, Sunday, and Sunday night. (Jerry Palm usually updates his RPI site Sunday evenings right after the last game)
 
Updated after Thursday's games with RPI.

HOME TEAM
21 Siena
34 Davidson
49 St Mary's
72 Evansville
75 Creighton
82 Niagara
90 Fairfield
95 Nevada
101 Wright St
105 Drexel
110 UW Milwaukee
114 Drake
124 Portland St
126 Vermont
136 Rider
143 San Diego
150 UT-Martin
151 James Madison
152 UIC
153 Loyola
165 Long Beach St
167 Wichita St
170 E Kentucky
171 Idaho
173 New Mexico St
177 Boston
181 Murray St
184 Georgia So
188 Bowling Green
198 San Jose St
199 ODU
207 Kent
215 Ball St
220 Towson
223 UC-Santa Barbara
228 Valpo
229 Hawaii
237 Winthrop
241 W Michigan
243 Indiana St
255 Marist
261 William & Mary
264 UC-Davis
268 Cal Poly
270 UNC-Wilmington
272 Bucknell
276 Youngstown St
286 Central Michigan
297 Tennessee St
329 SEMO
337 E Michigan


ROAD TEAM
8 Butler
41 Utah St
48 Miami (Oh)
52 Northeastern
53 George Mason
62 Illinois St
65 VCU
66 Buffalo
68 Northern Iowa
79 UW Green Bay
81 Boise St
86 Bradley
92 Hofstra
103 North Dakota St
106 Cleveland St
108 Austin Peay
121 SIU
125 Akron
129 Ohio
135 Iona
149 Missouri St
160 Loyola (Md)
163 Morehead St
164 Gardner-Webb
174 Liberty
176 CS Fullerton
178 Pacific
179 Montana St
183 CS Northridge
186 Morgan St
196 Manhattan
202 Canisius
205 Louisiana Tech
213 UMBC
218 Jacksonville St
235 Deleware
242 UC-Riverside
250 UC-Irvine
251 Fresno St
253 Hartford
259 Tenn Tech
262 Appalachian St
265 S Dakota St
271 Detroit
281 E Illinois
283 Georgia St
295 Elon
309 Toledo
310 St Peter's
314 Fairleigh Dickinson
330 Northern Illinois
 
The good news is I don't see anyone below Bradley's RPI who would warrant jumping over BU for a TV game.

Siena has an insane RPI. Think they're pushing hard for Butler to avoid any type of RPI damage? St Mary's is probably pushing too in order to get a resume win, but Utah St @ St Mary's makes so much sense right now.

So it's Butler/Davidson, Utah St/St Mary's. Northeastern leads the CAA and I think they go to Siena now ahead of UNI.

I'm stealing Mac's schtick and doing my projections:

Butler/Davidson - obvious
Utah St/St Mary's - obvious
Siena/Northeastern - N'eastern has better RPI than UNI
Buffalo/Creighton - unbelievably, Creighton is best available for home teams
MiamiOH/Fairfield - two teams fading fast, pair them together for 360 goodness
Northern Iowa/Niagara -ugh. 2nd place MAAC team.
George Mason/Nevada - they'll send a name program to play a name program. GMU has a bigger name and a better RPI than Bradley. This kills me.
VCU/Evansville - God I'd kill to be a BB home team this year. Evansville gets blessed
Bradley/Vermont - Bradley can't fall further than this. If it gets this far, they'll give us to a conference leader and Vermont is a class of their own in the A-East
Wisconsin-Green Bay/Drexel - irrelevant
Illinois St/Wisconsin-Milwaukee - it's funny because this would be ISU's signature non-con win right here.
North Dakota St/Portland St - west coast goodness
Boise St/Long Beach St - west coast goodness + conference leader

5 MVC teams. That's a lock - Creighton and Evansville simply have to be there as home teams since the pool is shallow, and there's no way they can leave out one of Bradley and ISU.

In this scenario I'd see a 11:00AM tip time on the Deuce.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
Illinois St/Wisconsin-Milwaukee - it's funny because this would be ISU's signature non-con win right here.
Click to expand...

TAS, not trying to flame here. Really enjoy your work and MM's too when it comes to projections.

ISU's non-signature win right now is Wright State 13-8 RPI 100.

Bradley's signature non-con win is ETSU is 13-5 RPI 132.
 
cpacmel said:
TAS, not trying to flame here. Really enjoy your work and MM's too when it comes to projections.

ISU's non-signature win right now is Wright State 13-8 RPI 100.

Bradley's signature non-con win is ETSU is 13-5 RPI 132.
Click to expand...

:twisted: You don't need to remind us of our horrible non-con performance. We know it already ;)
 
Thanks TAS for your contributions. I enjoy seeing your projections. I don't claim to be right (and neither do you).... just making projections for fun. So let me throw some of mine out.

Davidson vs Butler ESPN2
St Mary's vs Utah St ESPN2
Siena vs Northeastern ESPN2
Evansville vs Miami (Oh) ESPNU
Creighton vs Wisconsin-Green Bay ESPNU
Niagara vs George Mason ESPNU
Fairfield vs VCU ESPNU
Nevada vs Northern Iowa ESPN2
Wright St vs Buffalo ESPNU
Drexel vs Bradley ESPN360
Wisconsin-Milwaukee vs Illinois St ESPN360
Drake vs Cleveland St
Portland St vs Boise St
Vermont vs Austin Peay ESPN2
Rider vs Hofstra
San Diego vs Missouri St
UT-Martin vs SIU
James Madison vs Iona
UIC vs Akron
Loyola vs Ohio
Long Beach St vs N Dakota St ESPN2
 
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