TAS (and whomever else for that matter) - Home now, so I can type normally.
You hit the nail entirely on the head that the point is to bring in programs that offer more average profit than the average profit in your conference among current schools. Just adding revenue doesn't make you any better, it has to be profit. It also needs to be sustainable. This article
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...0/bcs.meetings/index.html?xid=cnnbin&hpt=Sbin claims that the Big Ten pays out $22M a year in revenues... So the question is, will adding a given team increase that or not.
Regarding profitability, I think Rutgers is actually a good example of a potentially bad team to add to your conference. To me, saying that Rutgers captures the NY market is a little like saying Butler captures the Indianapolis market (it may now actually, but prior to Championship appearance they just aren't all that well supported). I just don't think that Rutgers football is that big a of a deal to the NY market. This, by the way, is why I think Bradley is fairly more attractive than we tend to give it credit for, Peoria's not a huge market, but Bradley pretty much dominates it and has a loyal fanbase that buys tickets and watches TV.
Regarding sustainability, I think 16 teams puts you in a tough position. For the first couple of years you may actually increase viewership on the BTN and increase your ratings... But let's say you did at Rutgers, and they turned into the football doormat in your conference. How many people will keep tuning in to watch the Northwestern-Rutgers game. Also, you run into real problems with schedule balance that will start ticking off your member programs. A bad draw might affect your rankings and postseason in either of the major sports. The Big East is a good example for how quickly programs become dissatisfied when a conference is very large (as is the A10 for that matter). 12-team conferences such as the ACC, SEC, and B12 appear to be pretty stable and quite successful.
To me, for the Big Ten, Notre Dame is the obvious target -- huge football money, good academics, good other sports. If you can get them to see past their independence they can add a lot. Syracuse and Pitt probably also... But enough for a 16 team conference? You start playing with fire quick... And how do you keep everyone happy?
I think, an every bit as likely an outcome could come out like this (not necessarily in order):
1. B10 adds Notre Dame.
2. Pac 10 adds BYU and Utah St
3. The Big East football schools also look to get their football championship and add 4 football programs. Either Nova or G'Town could try to make the jump to FBS, or you could add the likes of Memphis, UCF, Temple, Miami (OH) -- or whatever, a lot of schools (Florida Atlantic, FIU, Tulane) could fit here that are "beneath the Big East" but the BE is the weakest power conference in terms of football and won't get the pick of best programs I don't think.
4. 20 teams is kind of a ridiculous in a conference that is already considered too large by some of it's members (or the football members didn't worry about the Big East and just struck out on their own), so the Big East non-football schools are kind of left out of the mix, which releases Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, and DePaul, with Georgetown and Villanova out there in the case they choose not to try to put in FCS.
5. Let's say Georgetown and Nova did not decide to make the FBS jump, and will leave the Big East as we know it. They form an "east coast basketball power conference" including G'Town, Nova, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, St. Joe's, URI, UMass, GWU, George Mason, ODU, and/or VCU.. Poaching the best eastern programs from the A10 and CAA. This conference easily gets 3-5 teams in the tourney each year.
6. Then a "midwestern basketball power conference" can form including western remnants of the A10 and Big East-- Marquette, DePaul, Dayton, SLU, Xavier, Butler, Bradley, Creighton, Wichita St, and then maybe Drake or Evansville or both-- or another good basketball program at a school that isn't interested in football. My research indicates, btw, that UE is better supported than we ever give it credit for, and their actions indicate they want no part of a return to D3, as far as I'm concerned. This conference, btw, contains a bunch of good basketball markets and uses that clout to sign a major broadcasting deal with Comcast who operates in those markets and doesn't have such a contract anywhere. This conference also usually sends 3-5 teams to the tourney every year.
7. The remainder of the MVC focuses their efforts on getting into the FBS. Remaining, you have, illinois st, Indiana St, UNI, Missouri St, and SIU. Since the Big East just had its way with the CUSA you have some interested schools that work with you to form a good basketball conference (with weaker football) by attracting the likes of Western Kentucky, Tulsa, UTEP, SMU, Rice, Houston, UAB.
It's a huge bunch of changes, but you end up with two very interesting new conferences focused on non-football sports. Excellent in basketball and soccer, and if they're smart they may work to add Lacrosse and Hockey programs and stake a claim in those up-and-coming college sports. The football interested portion of the MVC ends up more interested in football and at least as competitive as the CUSA or MAC is now and quite a bit better in basketball. In a lot of ways, I struggle to see how the above isn't quite a bit better for almost every program involved.