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Conference Realignment
- Thread starter thefish7
- Start date
TheAsianSensation
New member
Um, if these schools break away from the NCAA for the revenue sports, what's to stop the NCAA from giving the BCS schools the middle finger and just kicking them out of all sports? In fact, I'd expect it.
Also, I suppose, under your scenario, Villanova would jump from FCS to FBS faster than you can say "mid-major". :lol: Probably Georgetown too. UMass. Desperate programs will begin to do desperate things.
TAS (and whomever else for that matter) - Home now, so I can type normally.
You hit the nail entirely on the head that the point is to bring in programs that offer more average profit than the average profit in your conference among current schools. Just adding revenue doesn't make you any better, it has to be profit. It also needs to be sustainable. This article http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...0/bcs.meetings/index.html?xid=cnnbin&hpt=Sbin claims that the Big Ten pays out $22M a year in revenues... So the question is, will adding a given team increase that or not.
Regarding profitability, I think Rutgers is actually a good example of a potentially bad team to add to your conference. To me, saying that Rutgers captures the NY market is a little like saying Butler captures the Indianapolis market (it may now actually, but prior to Championship appearance they just aren't all that well supported). I just don't think that Rutgers football is that big a of a deal to the NY market. This, by the way, is why I think Bradley is fairly more attractive than we tend to give it credit for, Peoria's not a huge market, but Bradley pretty much dominates it and has a loyal fanbase that buys tickets and watches TV.
Regarding sustainability, I think 16 teams puts you in a tough position. For the first couple of years you may actually increase viewership on the BTN and increase your ratings... But let's say you did at Rutgers, and they turned into the football doormat in your conference. How many people will keep tuning in to watch the Northwestern-Rutgers game. Also, you run into real problems with schedule balance that will start ticking off your member programs. A bad draw might affect your rankings and postseason in either of the major sports. The Big East is a good example for how quickly programs become dissatisfied when a conference is very large (as is the A10 for that matter). 12-team conferences such as the ACC, SEC, and B12 appear to be pretty stable and quite successful.
To me, for the Big Ten, Notre Dame is the obvious target -- huge football money, good academics, good other sports. If you can get them to see past their independence they can add a lot. Syracuse and Pitt probably also... But enough for a 16 team conference? You start playing with fire quick... And how do you keep everyone happy?
I think, an every bit as likely an outcome could come out like this (not necessarily in order):
1. B10 adds Notre Dame.
2. Pac 10 adds BYU and Utah St
3. The Big East football schools also look to get their football championship and add 4 football programs. Either Nova or G'Town could try to make the jump to FBS, or you could add the likes of Memphis, UCF, Temple, Miami (OH) -- or whatever, a lot of schools (Florida Atlantic, FIU, Tulane) could fit here that are "beneath the Big East" but the BE is the weakest power conference in terms of football and won't get the pick of best programs I don't think.
4. 20 teams is kind of a ridiculous in a conference that is already considered too large by some of it's members (or the football members didn't worry about the Big East and just struck out on their own), so the Big East non-football schools are kind of left out of the mix, which releases Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, and DePaul, with Georgetown and Villanova out there in the case they choose not to try to put in FCS.
5. Let's say Georgetown and Nova did not decide to make the FBS jump, and will leave the Big East as we know it. They form an "east coast basketball power conference" including G'Town, Nova, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, St. Joe's, URI, UMass, GWU, George Mason, ODU, and/or VCU.. Poaching the best eastern programs from the A10 and CAA. This conference easily gets 3-5 teams in the tourney each year.
6. Then a "midwestern basketball power conference" can form including western remnants of the A10 and Big East-- Marquette, DePaul, Dayton, SLU, Xavier, Butler, Bradley, Creighton, Wichita St, and then maybe Drake or Evansville or both-- or another good basketball program at a school that isn't interested in football. My research indicates, btw, that UE is better supported than we ever give it credit for, and their actions indicate they want no part of a return to D3, as far as I'm concerned. This conference, btw, contains a bunch of good basketball markets and uses that clout to sign a major broadcasting deal with Comcast who operates in those markets and doesn't have such a contract anywhere. This conference also usually sends 3-5 teams to the tourney every year.
7. The remainder of the MVC focuses their efforts on getting into the FBS. Remaining, you have, illinois st, Indiana St, UNI, Missouri St, and SIU. Since the Big East just had its way with the CUSA you have some interested schools that work with you to form a good basketball conference (with weaker football) by attracting the likes of Western Kentucky, Tulsa, UTEP, SMU, Rice, Houston, UAB.
It's a huge bunch of changes, but you end up with two very interesting new conferences focused on non-football sports. Excellent in basketball and soccer, and if they're smart they may work to add Lacrosse and Hockey programs and stake a claim in those up-and-coming college sports. The football interested portion of the MVC ends up more interested in football and at least as competitive as the CUSA or MAC is now and quite a bit better in basketball. In a lot of ways, I struggle to see how the above isn't quite a bit better for almost every program involved.
You hit the nail entirely on the head that the point is to bring in programs that offer more average profit than the average profit in your conference among current schools. Just adding revenue doesn't make you any better, it has to be profit. It also needs to be sustainable. This article http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...0/bcs.meetings/index.html?xid=cnnbin&hpt=Sbin claims that the Big Ten pays out $22M a year in revenues... So the question is, will adding a given team increase that or not.
Regarding profitability, I think Rutgers is actually a good example of a potentially bad team to add to your conference. To me, saying that Rutgers captures the NY market is a little like saying Butler captures the Indianapolis market (it may now actually, but prior to Championship appearance they just aren't all that well supported). I just don't think that Rutgers football is that big a of a deal to the NY market. This, by the way, is why I think Bradley is fairly more attractive than we tend to give it credit for, Peoria's not a huge market, but Bradley pretty much dominates it and has a loyal fanbase that buys tickets and watches TV.
Regarding sustainability, I think 16 teams puts you in a tough position. For the first couple of years you may actually increase viewership on the BTN and increase your ratings... But let's say you did at Rutgers, and they turned into the football doormat in your conference. How many people will keep tuning in to watch the Northwestern-Rutgers game. Also, you run into real problems with schedule balance that will start ticking off your member programs. A bad draw might affect your rankings and postseason in either of the major sports. The Big East is a good example for how quickly programs become dissatisfied when a conference is very large (as is the A10 for that matter). 12-team conferences such as the ACC, SEC, and B12 appear to be pretty stable and quite successful.
To me, for the Big Ten, Notre Dame is the obvious target -- huge football money, good academics, good other sports. If you can get them to see past their independence they can add a lot. Syracuse and Pitt probably also... But enough for a 16 team conference? You start playing with fire quick... And how do you keep everyone happy?
I think, an every bit as likely an outcome could come out like this (not necessarily in order):
1. B10 adds Notre Dame.
2. Pac 10 adds BYU and Utah St
3. The Big East football schools also look to get their football championship and add 4 football programs. Either Nova or G'Town could try to make the jump to FBS, or you could add the likes of Memphis, UCF, Temple, Miami (OH) -- or whatever, a lot of schools (Florida Atlantic, FIU, Tulane) could fit here that are "beneath the Big East" but the BE is the weakest power conference in terms of football and won't get the pick of best programs I don't think.
4. 20 teams is kind of a ridiculous in a conference that is already considered too large by some of it's members (or the football members didn't worry about the Big East and just struck out on their own), so the Big East non-football schools are kind of left out of the mix, which releases Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, and DePaul, with Georgetown and Villanova out there in the case they choose not to try to put in FCS.
5. Let's say Georgetown and Nova did not decide to make the FBS jump, and will leave the Big East as we know it. They form an "east coast basketball power conference" including G'Town, Nova, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, St. Joe's, URI, UMass, GWU, George Mason, ODU, and/or VCU.. Poaching the best eastern programs from the A10 and CAA. This conference easily gets 3-5 teams in the tourney each year.
6. Then a "midwestern basketball power conference" can form including western remnants of the A10 and Big East-- Marquette, DePaul, Dayton, SLU, Xavier, Butler, Bradley, Creighton, Wichita St, and then maybe Drake or Evansville or both-- or another good basketball program at a school that isn't interested in football. My research indicates, btw, that UE is better supported than we ever give it credit for, and their actions indicate they want no part of a return to D3, as far as I'm concerned. This conference, btw, contains a bunch of good basketball markets and uses that clout to sign a major broadcasting deal with Comcast who operates in those markets and doesn't have such a contract anywhere. This conference also usually sends 3-5 teams to the tourney every year.
7. The remainder of the MVC focuses their efforts on getting into the FBS. Remaining, you have, illinois st, Indiana St, UNI, Missouri St, and SIU. Since the Big East just had its way with the CUSA you have some interested schools that work with you to form a good basketball conference (with weaker football) by attracting the likes of Western Kentucky, Tulsa, UTEP, SMU, Rice, Houston, UAB.
It's a huge bunch of changes, but you end up with two very interesting new conferences focused on non-football sports. Excellent in basketball and soccer, and if they're smart they may work to add Lacrosse and Hockey programs and stake a claim in those up-and-coming college sports. The football interested portion of the MVC ends up more interested in football and at least as competitive as the CUSA or MAC is now and quite a bit better in basketball. In a lot of ways, I struggle to see how the above isn't quite a bit better for almost every program involved.
thefish7 you have part of the story right IMO. I believe thought that the ACC, SEC, Big X and Pac X will want to grow quickly to 16 teams each, which will open the doors for some BCS schools to left out and probably form another conference with the likes of TCU, Boise State and others. I'd expect to see 3 other decent regional football conferences form and expand along with as you stated an east coast and mid-west basketball power schools. We do need to hope that there will be a split between the Big East with Georgetown and Villanova and that they will not try to poach Butler and Xavier.
TheAsianSensation
New member
As for your steps, I think this is the one I don't quite agree with. I think the likes of G'town, Nova, Provi, SHU, and St John's would rather stick with Marquette and DePaul and nab the Ohio schools (Xavier, Dayton) and a couple others rather than nabbing, say, VCU. Plus, with G'town, they won't take ODU because they infringe on their market. Technically St Joe's infringes on Nova's too.
And most importantly, the Big East castoffs will realize that if they don't purge the A-10 harder, the A-10 can do exactly what you described in step 6 and be on par with the conference formed in step 5. They don't want to be on par. They want to be the best of the best.
The thing is, the Rutgers market is so big (New Jersey/New York) that you don't have to dominate it to profit from it.
squirrelgotdead
New member
Possibly. But the other thing they will realize is their very existence could be on the line. The NCAA will still have football and basketball for those remaining. However, where the NCAA can still be relevant is in emerging sports (soccer, lacrosse) whose markets are growing rapidly and they will likely be the only home for big name schools to participate in some sports.
And if the NCAA gives them the cold shoulder then. . .they'll just go off and create their own organization and take a good number of NCAA schools (maybe even NAIA too) with them.
TheAsianSensation
New member
Yea, but would they take, say, Johns Hopkins for lacrosse only and refuse them the other sports? What about the Ivy League schools?
It could get very messy when you have a breakup like this and have some teams play under the NCAA and other teams not so. To have some schools in some sports....it's just too messy. I expect a clean break. If you try to keep your ties in other sports, you risk yourself to having to follow the rules of both organizations.
It's gotta be all or nothing. They can't do a middle ground. There will be mass confusion otherwise.
squirrelgotdead
New member
It's a nice thought, but how in the world would you ever begin to implement it?
It really is an ingenious system for one primary reason: Every game literally means something. Even if you are the last place team, you are fighting to avoid being relegated. However, if you can't compete, being relegated at least gives you the opportunity to do earn your stripes at a lower level.
And in many leagues they have inter-divisional playoffs to determine promotion/relegation where top teams from the lower division square off against weaker teams from the higher division and so it's great for competition on all ends of the spectrum.
tornado
New member
Nebraska University Chancellor speaks about leaving Big 12 and joining Big Ten..
(he says no specifics are in the works..but.......he's talking...)
???You don't know that for sure," (Harvey) Perlman said. ???There could be some
advantage to joining the Big Ten depending on what the deal is....
???My instinct and Tom's instinct (Nebraska AD Tom Osborne) isn't just to sit
around and wait to see what bad things happen to you," the chancellor
said. ???We're certainly talking about what options we have."
The Big Ten..(has) ..publicly stated they are studying expansion or are open
to it.
.. are we in the swirl of things? Yes," he said. ???By the product of our
location, we could be vulnerable if there is significant change in conference
realignment."
Perlman said he wants the Big 12 to succeed. But that doesn't mean a move
by Nebraska to any other power conference has been ruled out.
???I don't think anyone can dismiss anything ...we certainly have to act in the
interest of Nebraska."
This is all about money, isn't it?
The Big Ten pays its members $22 million a year. The Big 12 pays between
about $7 million and $11 million. Wouldn't Nebraska be crazy to turn down an
invitation to the Big Ten for double the yearly revenue?"
(he says no specifics are in the works..but.......he's talking...)
???You don't know that for sure," (Harvey) Perlman said. ???There could be some
advantage to joining the Big Ten depending on what the deal is....
???My instinct and Tom's instinct (Nebraska AD Tom Osborne) isn't just to sit
around and wait to see what bad things happen to you," the chancellor
said. ???We're certainly talking about what options we have."
The Big Ten..(has) ..publicly stated they are studying expansion or are open
to it.
.. are we in the swirl of things? Yes," he said. ???By the product of our
location, we could be vulnerable if there is significant change in conference
realignment."
Perlman said he wants the Big 12 to succeed. But that doesn't mean a move
by Nebraska to any other power conference has been ruled out.
???I don't think anyone can dismiss anything ...we certainly have to act in the
interest of Nebraska."
This is all about money, isn't it?
The Big Ten pays its members $22 million a year. The Big 12 pays between
about $7 million and $11 million. Wouldn't Nebraska be crazy to turn down an
invitation to the Big Ten for double the yearly revenue?"
That's a good point there. Do you think the steps are a bit more "realistic" if G'Town/Nova went to FBS?
Yeah, you have the reason for wanting to do it right. In the UK a pub-team could, over the years, become a Premier League team. It's even happened once with a club called Wimbledon FC, who went from the lowest tier in 1977 to the Premier League in 1986. Every team is always playing for something.
I think with Baseball you could define it as a goal and implement with something like a 5-year plan. You already have the infrastructure with the minor leagues, but you need to transition to a state where the major league clubs eliminate their affiliations with them and where all players end up contracted to the team they're playing on. You'd also need a max-roster size. I'm a huge baseball fan, but don't particularly enjoy Peoria Chiefs games because they're not playing to win... After such a change they'd be playing to advance to the next level.
Pro Basketball could also state it as a goal and solicit d-league teams and minor league teams to accomplish something similar. They could also work to capture regional leagues (semi-pros or amateurs included) And work out stratification as it becomes reasonable necessary.
College basketball would be weirder, but I think, doable. You'd just define a conference size and have promotion-relegation based on regular season results. You'd replace the tournament with something like the FA Cup. I think a more realistic, though maybe unpalatable, idea (which would represent the end of amateur basketball) would be to roll the NCAA teams up into a promo-relegation system with the pros. So, the Bradley Braves would just become a pro team competing in the same multi-league tiered format.
With the NFL, I don't think it makes any sense at all, though.
TheAsianSensation
New member
That would leave Provi, Seton Hall, and St John's. I think they'd want to stick with Marquette and DePaul in that scenario, and therefore pick up other schools like Butler/Xavier/Dayton/etc. I think whoever is left is going to want to stay loyal to Marquette and DePaul, to be honest.
Villanova perhaps but I just do not see G'town putting money into a football team. That is probably our biggest hope that there will be 1, 2 or 3 non-football conferences or BCS programs in a super basketball league. I just do not see the real upside in basketball of creating a super 64 team collee league. It would be no difference then the NBA doin it. It will take the pleasure out of a vast majority of fans of followin the sport and thus killing it.
squirrelgotdead
New member
The question on Villanova will always be "will Philly support it?"
There a numerous reasons why they haven't yet, not the least of which is Philly has never really supported college football, much less bad college football.
The school has periodically reviewed the possibility. But the risks have always remained the same and the studies repeatedly produce results that are unsavory.
It would be an interesting case. . .you really can not afford to not make the move this time around. But that doesn't change the fact they won't have an adequate facility, little to no fan support and poor attendance. And they will be forced to share an indifferent market with another football program (Temple) that in a very good year is mediocre. Temple would likely have stadium priority as well.
There a numerous reasons why they haven't yet, not the least of which is Philly has never really supported college football, much less bad college football.
The school has periodically reviewed the possibility. But the risks have always remained the same and the studies repeatedly produce results that are unsavory.
It would be an interesting case. . .you really can not afford to not make the move this time around. But that doesn't change the fact they won't have an adequate facility, little to no fan support and poor attendance. And they will be forced to share an indifferent market with another football program (Temple) that in a very good year is mediocre. Temple would likely have stadium priority as well.
I kind of agree, I guess I'm openly asking the question as to if those three schools are "worth more" than Creighton, WSU, Bradley. I kind of think the geography involved gives you "as good" revenue, with slightly lower travel expenses, and in a market with "less competition." Meaning that I basically think that a midwestern basketball-only power conference that was creative really could get a lucrative deal from Comcast, who wants to get some back from the BTN... And that Marquette, DePaul, Butler, Xavier, Dayton, SLU, Bradley, Creighton, WSU, and maybe one other school could be a "better package" than Providence, Seton Hall, and St. John's.
TheAsianSensation
New member
They are, I think.
Creighton, WSU, Bradley can end up with, say, St Louis, Xavier, Dayton, Butler, Marquette, DePaul if one thing happens: All those schools split first and persuade each other to form up. Unfortunately, the Big East split is inevitable and will most definitely happen first, and that will mean the Big East buddies will team up. I don't think Marquette or DePaul would walk away from the rest.
You have 9 schools against 3 so of course but St. John has more potential then any school you listed to bring in TV revenues. NY is the number 1 TV market in the US by a wide margin.
TheAsianSensation
New member
We'll see. The key is going to be once the Big East split happens. The likes of BU, Creighton, and WSU (and probably Butler too) will have to act immediately. Like, within hours. Of course, you risk straining MVC relations with everyone else.