IMO, the keys to Bradley winning are not to dig a big hole early in the game, and to defend Chase Walker well.
If someone gets hot from three like Jack Daugherty did the last time these teams played, then maybe it won't matter. But if Bradley can play well for 40 minutes and prevent Walker from having a big game, I think the Braves' chances are good.
MVC Teams have seen enough of his game the last couple years to improve their defenses against him.
His scoring average, rebound average, and FG% are surprisingly all down this season compared to last season. And nobody is conceding the Player of the Year award to him any more as some expected.
Stats- https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/stats/_/id/5176354/chase-walker
He's left handed, and usually will try to go to his left. I am sure our coaches have pounded that into Meta and the other bigs. And although he's listed at 6'0", he is almost exclusively a "below the basket" post player. He gets most of his points by effectively using pivot moves, shot-fakes, and the occasional body slam to get defenders off balance or out of position to enable layups. Our bigs have to avoid jumping at the shot-fakes, move their feet quickly, and try to hold their position against his offensive banging. Some opponents have tried double-teaming him if he begins to dribble, and that might be worth trying occasionally. But he is a good passer and
is a close second to Johnny Kinziger for the team lead in assists. He is also the only true big man among the top 25 assists leaders in the MVC.
Meta did a pretty good job defending him last year, so I expect him to be better this year.
ISU is currently listed as a 5.5 point favorite.-
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401830231/bradley-illinois-st
For the record- Bradley is just 1-4 this season in games where they were underdogs. The only win was against Liberty. The 4 losses were to St. Bonaventure, San Francisco, Belmont, and Murray State.
And BU is 7-11 against the spread this season (excluding the North Central game).
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