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TAS Bracketology 2009

I understand the recent placement of New Mexico into the Bubble-talks. They tie for first in the Mtn West Conference. After tie-breakers, they get the 3 seed. Comparing them to Creighton right now... I think Creighton has the better resume. CU has 2 wins out of conference over top 50 RPI teams. UNM has none. CU has a winning/better record against 51-100 than UNM. They both share the same "worst-loss"to Drake (though UNM's was on a neutral floor and CU lost to 'em at home).

But also... CU beat UNM in Omaha back in November.

So I think UNM needs to get to the MWC finals (so an upset over the 2 seed Utah) to be up on CU in the pecking order.

All of this may mean nothing as both sit behind BCS schools in the pecking order, anyway. :lol:
 
Don't know where else to mention this, so I'm sticking it in your thread TAS.

Today is a BIG day in the MAC's final day of games.

10-5 Buffalo
10-5 Akron
10-5 Mia-Oh
10-5 Bowling Green
9-6 Kent

Buffalo hosts Mia-Oh (Buff wins?, so they are 11-5 and Mia-Oh is 10-6).

Akron is at Kent (Kent wins so they are 10-6 and Akron is 10-6).

Bowling Green hosts Ohio who is 7-8 (and if BG wins, they are also 11-5).

That would mean?
Buff and BG 11-5
Akron, Kent, and Mia-Oh finish 10-6
 
TheAsianSensation said:
Here's a placeholder view at the bubble:

Recent locks:
BYU
Dayton
Boston College
West Virginia
Texas

12 BUBBLE SPOTS

In order:
Texas A&M
Ohio St
Wisconsin
New Mexico
St Mary's
Michigan
Oklahoma St
Creighton
Siena (in as autobid right now)
Arizona
Davidson (in as autobid right now)
UNLV
San Diego St
Minnesota
---cutline---
Providence
Penn St
South Carolina
Virginia Tech
Utah St (in as autobid right now)
Maryland
Florida
Miami
Rhode Island
Northwestern
Auburn
Kansas St
Kentucky
Northern Iowa

The next tier:
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Nebraska
Temple
Illinois St
Niagara
George Mason
UAB
Tulsa
Mississippi St
USC
Click to expand...

I'm still peeved with Joe Lunardi keeping Creighton out based on yesterday's game. And at the expense of a pretender like South Carolina who has ZERO top 50 wins!

Then again maybe he is making up for predicting ISU would make the tournament last year. :D
 
sunday update:

12 BUBBLE SPOTS

In order:
Texas A&M
Ohio St
Wisconsin
New Mexico
St Mary's
Michigan
Oklahoma St
Creighton
Siena (in as autobid right now)
Arizona
UNLV
San Diego St
South Carolina
Providence
---cutline---
Minnesota
Davidson
Virginia Tech
Utah St (in as autobid right now)
Penn St
Maryland
Florida
Miami
Auburn
Kansas St
Rhode Island
Kentucky
Northwestern

The next tier:
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Nebraska
Temple
Illinois St
Niagara
George Mason
UAB
Tulsa
Mississippi St
USC
Vanderbilt
 
MacabreMob said:
Don't know where else to mention this, so I'm sticking it in your thread TAS.

Today is a BIG day in the MAC's final day of games.

10-5 Buffalo
10-5 Akron
10-5 Mia-Oh
10-5 Bowling Green
9-6 Kent

Buffalo hosts Mia-Oh (Buff wins?, so they are 11-5 and Mia-Oh is 10-6).

Akron is at Kent (Kent wins so they are 10-6 and Akron is 10-6).

Bowling Green hosts Ohio who is 7-8 (and if BG wins, they are also 11-5).

That would mean?
Buff and BG 11-5
Akron, Kent, and Mia-Oh finish 10-6
Click to expand...



Bowling Green wins the tiebreak and the conference - probably the 5th best team in that conference gets the NIT bid. Now watch BG win the tourney and no MAC team go to the NIT.

That league is so frustrating.
 
Today's updates:

Jerry Palm has UNI (13) facing Missouri (4). He also has Creighton as one of the first four out.

Tim Gardner (USA Today) says this about Creighton: OUT Ouch. Rout at the hands of Illinois State did major damage to the Bluejays' NCAA hopes. Such a loss -- in the league semifinals no less -- is probably too much to overcome.

Bracketography has UNI (12) facing Illinois (5) and Creighton (12) facing UCLA (5).

ESPN Bubble Watch had this to say about Creighton: The Bluejays will have a week full of anxiety after getting routed 73-49 by Illinois State in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference. Creighton has a pretty good argument for an at-large bid, with three victories over RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Dayton, George Mason and Illinois State at home. The Bluejays also have victories over New Mexico (home) and MVC champion Northern Iowa (road). They're 3-2 against RPI top-50 foes and 9-5 against the top 100. They'll also get help from their more than respectable 8-4 record in road games.​
 
shaunguth said:
Today's updates:

Jerry Palm has UNI (13) facing Missouri (4). He also has Creighton as one of the first four out.

Tim Gardner (USA Today) says this about Creighton: OUTOuch. Rout at the hands of Illinois State did major damage to the Bluejays' NCAA hopes. Such a loss -- in the league semifinals no less -- is probably too much to overcome.

Bracketography has UNI (12) facing Illinois (5) and Creighton (12) facing UCLA (5).

ESPN Bubble Watch had this to say about Creighton: The Bluejays will have a week full of anxiety after getting routed 73-49 by Illinois State in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference. Creighton has a pretty good argument for an at-large bid, with three victories over RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Dayton, George Mason and Illinois State at home. The Bluejays also have victories over New Mexico (home) and MVC champion Northern Iowa (road). They're 3-2 against RPI top-50 foes and 9-5 against the top 100. They'll also get help from their more than respectable 8-4 record in road games.​
Click to expand...

I agree with the ESPN Bubble Watch more than the others (outside of Bracketography). How anyone can say Creighton is out based on one game, especially since they have better credentials than last year's ISU team is beyond me!

Creighton has better credentials than all but two or three of the SEC teams in the running for a bid. But watch get four or even five teams in at the expense of Creighton. I hope the committee proves me wrong as they have been somewhat independent of the BCS pundits in recent years, but it will still be a long week for them.
 
We should organize a selection committee for here. We can do a better job than those hacks. Besides, I wanna see a bracket with 2 SEC teams in it.

New bracket from me tonight. Looks like I'm giving the SEC their 3rd team in the field back.
 
Memphis Regional

@Greensboro
1) North Carolina (26-3) vs. 16) Morehead St (17-15)
8) Dayton (25-6) vs. 9) Texas A&M (22-8 )

@Portland
4) UCLA (24-7) vs. 13) American (23-7)
5) Illinois (23-8 ) vs. 12) Providence (18-12)

@Philadelphia
3) Villanova (25-6) vs. 14) Cornell (19-9)
6) Butler (25-4) vs. 11) Arizona (19-12)

@Kansas City
2) Oklahoma (27-4) vs. 15) Morgan St (19-11)
7) Utah (21-8 ) vs. 10) Siena (26-7)


Phoenix Regional

@Dayton
1) Louisville (25-5) vs. 16) Radford (18-11)
8) California (22-9) vs. 9) Oklahoma St (20-10)

@Minneapolis
4) Purdue (22-9) vs. 13) Northern Iowa (22-10)
5) Clemson (23-7) vs. 12) VCU (24-9)

@Miami
3) Wake Forest (24-5) vs. 14) Stephen F Austin (17-7)
6) Syracuse (22-8 ) vs. 11) Michigan (18-12)

@Miami
2) Memphis (28-3) vs. 15) East Tennessee St (21-10)
7) LSU (25-6) vs. 10) New Mexico (21-10)


Boston Regional

@Philadelphia
1) Connecticut (27-3) vs. 16) Alabama St (17-9)
8) BYU (23-6) vs. 9) Ohio St (20-9)

@Boise
4) Florida St (23-8 ) vs. 13) Binghamton (21-8 )
5) Xavier (24-6) vs. 12) South Carolina (21-8 )

@KansasCity
3) Kansas (25-6) vs. 14) North Dakota St (23-6)
6) Arizona St (22-8 ) vs. 11) Utah St (26-4)

@Minneapolis
2) Michigan St (25-5) vs. 15) Bowling Green (16-12)
7) West Virginia (21-10) vs. 10) Boston College (21-10)


Indianapolis Regional

@Dayton
1) Pittsburgh (27-3) vs. 16) CSU-Northridge (14-13)/Chattanooga (16-16)
8) Texas (20-10) vs. 9) Wisconsin (18-11)

@Boise
4) Missouri (24-6) vs. 13) Western Kentucky (22-8 )
5) Gonzaga (25-5) vs. 12) San Diego St (19-8 )

@Portland
3) Washington (23-7) vs. 14) Weber St (20-8 )
6) Marquette (23-8 ) vs. 11) Creighton (26-7)

@Greensboro
2) Duke (25-6) vs. 15) Robert Morris (23-10)
7) Tennessee (19-11) vs. 10) UNLV (21-9)


The Bubble

New locks:
Texas A&M
Boston College
Wisconsin
Ohio St
Dayton


9 BUBBLE SPOTS
In order of goodness

Oklahoma St
New Mexico
Michigan
Arizona
UNLV

Last 4 in:
Creighton
San Diego St
Providence
South Carolina

Last 4 out:
St Mary's (23-6)
Minnesota (20-9)
Penn St (21-10)
Florida (20-9)

Next 4 out:
Davidson (25-7)
Virginia Tech (17-13)
Miami (17-11)
Rhode Island (22-9)

In bubble trouble:
Temple (19-11)
Maryland (18-12)
Auburn (20-10)
Kansas St (20-10)
Northwestern (17-12)
Kentucky (19-12)
USC (18-12)
UAB (21-10)

Dead:
Cincinnati (17-13)
Georgetown (16-13)
Illinois St (24-9)
Mississippi St (18-12)
Niagara (26-8)
George Mason (22-10)
Notre Dame (16-13)
Cleveland St (21-10)
Nebraska (18-11)
Vanderbilt (19-11)
Tulsa (21-9)


Most everyone else is not in the NIT.



Break it down!

Big East 8
ACC 6
Big 12 6
Big 10 6
MWC 5
Pac 10 5
SEC 3
MVC 2
A-10 2
 
I'll come back to here for the rest of my updates.

I have a lenghty process to get to this point, but I'll save you the grief:

Baylor can steal one of the at-large spots. I think Temple is out with a loss. Let's assume neither happens. Let's assume USC loses tonight. 5 for 8 spots. Let's assume Auburn and Maryland lose tomorrow.

That means Creighton must beat 3 of Maryland, Auburn, St Mary's, Michigan, Minny, Penn St, and Arizona to an at-large bid.
 
Random stat of the day that may interest nobody:

It took all season, but the SWAC has officially moved past the group of independent teams into 31st place in the CRPI.
 
An NIT spot is on the line in the Big West title game, as CS-Northridge is guaranteed an NIT spot if they don't win the title game against Pacific. It could have ramifications on BU's miracle-at-best NIT hopes. If it wasn't for this 'conference winners who don't make the NCAA's automatically go to the NIT' thing, I think we'd be in. It would be close though.

Maybe Xavier Crawford can score the winning bucket that sends his current team to the NCAA's and sends his former team to an unlikely NIT. :)
 
So far, there have been 5 automatic qualifiers for the NIT. If CSN loses, that'll make the final number 6, or possibly 7 if Stephen F. Austin loses tomorrow. The 5 so far are Jacksonville, Davidson, Tennessee Martin, Weber State, and Bowling Green. All other champions that lost in their conference tourney are still NCAA locks.
 
NIT ramifications! ISU's spot might even be on hold.

I've been posting my projections at literally a dozen different places, so apologies for neglecting this particular thread.

Yesterday I did this for the NIT:


MIDWEST regional
1) Minnesota (21-10) vs. 8) Bowling Green (17-13)
4) Kansas St (20-11) vs 5) Notre Dame (17-14)
3) UNLV (21-10) vs. 6) George Mason (22-10)
2) Florida (23-10) vs. 7) Duquense (21-11)

WEST regional
1) New Mexico (21-11) vs. 8) Weber St (20-9)
4) Kentucky (20-13) vs. 5) Illinois St (24-9)
3) Miami (17-12) vs. 6) Vanderbilt (19-12)
2) USC (20-12) vs. 7) Northwestern (17-13)

EAST regional
1) Penn St (22-11) vs. 8) Tennessee-Martin (20-9)
4) Tulsa (23-9) vs. 5) Niagara (26-8)
3) Davidson (25-7) vs. 6) Mississippi St (20-12)
2) South Carolina (21-9) vs. 7) Cincinnati (17-14)

SOUTH regional
1) Auburn (21-10) vs. 8) Jacksonville (18-13)
4) Rhode Island (22-10) vs. 5) Georgetown (16-14)
3) Providence (19-13) vs. 6) UAB (22-11)
2) Virginia Tech (18-13) vs. 7) Baylor (19-13)



Last 4 in
Cincinnati
Vanderbilt
Duquense
Baylor

Last 4 out
Nebraska
Washington St
Houston
Wisconsin-Green Bay
 
TheAsianSensation said:
NIT ramifications! ISU's spot might even be on hold.

I've been posting my projections at literally a dozen different places, so apologies for neglecting this particular thread.

Yesterday I did this for the NIT:


MIDWEST regional
1) Minnesota (21-10) vs. 8) Bowling Green (17-13)
4) Kansas St (20-11) vs 5) Notre Dame (17-14)
3) UNLV (21-10) vs. 6) George Mason (22-10)
2) Florida (23-10) vs. 7) Duquense (21-11)

WEST regional
1) New Mexico (21-11) vs. 8) Weber St (20-9)
4) Kentucky (20-13) vs. 5) Illinois St (24-9)
3) Miami (17-12) vs. 6) Vanderbilt (19-12)
2) USC (20-12) vs. 7) Northwestern (17-13)

EAST regional
1) Penn St (22-11) vs. 8) Tennessee-Martin (20-9)
4) Tulsa (23-9) vs. 5) Niagara (26-8)
3) Davidson (25-7) vs. 6) Mississippi St (20-12)
2) South Carolina (21-9) vs. 7) Cincinnati (17-14)

SOUTH regional
1) Auburn (21-10) vs. 8) Jacksonville (18-13)
4) Rhode Island (22-10) vs. 5) Georgetown (16-14)
3) Providence (19-13) vs. 6) UAB (22-11)
2) Virginia Tech (18-13) vs. 7) Baylor (19-13)



Last 4 in
Cincinnati
Vanderbilt
Duquense
Baylor

Last 4 out
Nebraska
Washington St
Houston
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Click to expand...

USC won the Pac-10, so they're going to the NCAA's. I guess add Nebraska?
 
BradleyBrave said:
USC won the Pac-10, so they're going to the NCAA's. I guess add Nebraska?
Click to expand...

Yea.

Really, there's a few other teams that can sneak in as well. The NIT bubble isn't that well defined.

The other thing to take away from it is that Bradley's profile doesn't quite match up with those final teams listed. Washington St and Cincy were showing up on NCAA bubble watches a week or two weeks ago. A .500 Big 12 team. Tom Penders' smug face. If the NIT field were extended back to 40 teams, Bradley could be right there. It's sort of a shame the NIT reduced their field AND gave out autobids - it's just too restricting. This restriction led to both the CIT and CBI being formed - in reality, we only need one of those to exist.



A suggestion to make the NIT field 64 teams was brought up somewhere. It actually seems like a great idea - gets rid of the messy lower tournaments, and can cover the deserving teams. Remember, massive D-1 expansion means more postseason spots need to be created.
 
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