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2010-11 Expectations

B

Buesch N Chips

New member
I think it would be a good idea to get everyone's expectations down before the season. What would make the season successful? For these purposes, we are going to assume that we have no health issues. Not pie in the sky, but what should be EXPECTED this season for it to be called a success?

As for me, I find it difficult to label one game a must win for success, because anything can happen in one game. So I would never say, for example, that we need to beat Team X to have a successful season. I would also struggle to say that we would need to go deep in the MVC tourney, because that really is another one game deal.

I would say this team should be expected to lose no more than 3 home games total, go .500 on the road in the MVC, and make either the NIT or NCAA. I would also hope we could finish top 4 in the MVC. If all of that happens, I would say the season was a success. Of course, there is a good chance we do better than that, but remember we are talking baseline minimum for your definition of success.
 
Buesch N Chips said:
I would say this team should be expected to lose no more than 3 home games total, go .500 on the road in the MVC
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IMO we should lose ZERO at home and .500 in MVC road play may be good enough for a top 3 or better finish.

My minimum expectations for this season are this:

-Undefeated going into Duke game (1 game allowance)

-No more than 3 non-con losses

-Zero home losses

-Top 3 league finish (although 1st or 2nd compensates for missing on the others-except the NCAA bid)

-NCAA Bid in conjunction w/ Top 3 finish; anything outside will not be recognized by me. I'll enjoy the bid, but the job done was not acceptable, overall.

EDIT: (I forgot one)

-NO LOSSES TO THE SWAC
 
We should have the best back court in the Valley without question. Where I feel we have question marks is in the front court. We should be able to score and because we lack a bit of presence in the front court I expect us to speed up the game a bit. I expect to see our 4-5 guys score the problem will be can they keep the other good teams 4-5 guys from scoring and getting us into early foul problems. If AT and JP can contribute then we should be able to keep our starters fresh and that will make all the difference. To me when you look past WSU the next 4 teams seem fairly even and it will all depend on how the benches play.
 
Top 3 in the MVC is mandatory. Sooner or later you need to break the threshold and this year's team has built up to this.

Other achievements I'd like to see accomplished:

1) Maximum 2 non-conference losses (obviously counting Duke as 1 of the 2).
2) Defend your home court vigourously to the tune of 14-2 at worst (undefeated in the non-con, 7-2 in the Valley as the minimums. I won't squawk if someone like Wichita comes in and wins, but it better be an aberration).
3) Blow out Jackson St by 80 pts to make up for scheduling a SWAC school
4) Undefeated in the Tipoff classic in Massachusetts (whatever resume boost we get from it is important).
5) No losses to the bottom 5 teams in the Valley (ISU red, ISU blue, SIU, UE, DU) at all. Period. No matter what. Ok, maybe I should permit 1 loss as this league isn't exactly a pushover. But you get the point. Separate from the bottom.

If we do all the following, an NCAA bid is a cinch. If we go top 3 in the Valley and don't get into the NCAA's, I'll be neutral, as we will have made some solid progress but failed to get the ultimate goal.

Finishing in the bottom half of the Valley will be an ultimate and complete failure regardless of the non-con.

And on a bigger scale:

I expect the Valley to get back into the Top 8 in CRPI and in all other conference-ranking metrics. We're getting into dangerous territory with having the MWC and A-10 starting to have a pattern of being in the top 8.
 
squirrelgotdead said:
IMO we should lose ZERO at home and .500 in MVC road play may be good enough for a top 3 or better finish.

My minimum expectations for this season are this:

-Undefeated going into Duke game (1 game allowance)

-No more than 3 non-con losses

-Zero home losses

-Top 3 league finish (although 1st or 2nd compensates for missing on the others-except the NCAA bid)

-NCAA Bid in conjunction w/ Top 3 finish; anything outside will not be recognized by me. I'll enjoy the bid, but the job done was not acceptable, overall.

EDIT: (I forgot one)

-NO LOSSES TO THE SWAC
Click to expand...

I disagree with this. I don't care how I get a bid as long as I do. But if we finish 1st or 2nd and don't get a bid, I'll be upset we didn't get a bid, but I'll still consider the season a success.
 
dogsrus said:
IF you expectations are not met....what should happen?
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Depends how close we got to the expectations.

If you wanted to really, really simplify things, let's call NCAA bid as success, CBI/CIT or worse as failure, and the NIT as limbo, with the NIT seed being the degree of limbo we're in. :lol:
 
Without getting into the minutae of the schedule, I think it really boils down to making the NIT or NCAA. There are some wild-card players, who, if they take the next step in their development, could make this an extremely successful season....(e.g. TB, WE and DSE)....I think this team has the ability to win the Valley and get deep in either major tourny....
 
amckillip said:
I disagree with this. I don't care how I get a bid as long as I do. But if we finish 1st or 2nd and don't get a bid, I'll be upset we didn't get a bid, but I'll still consider the season a success.
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I'm sorry I have standards.

Look, it'd be one thing if there were other tangible positives at this point. But I have more solid expectations this year because there aren't. Normally I would agree with you (perhaps you missed the statement I made saying I would enjoy it but I would not find the result acceptable).

One thing I'll never be accused of being is inconsistent.

Backing into the NCAA Tournament is nice, but I don't place meaning in that. Georgia felt obligated to retain a coach who had been told he was done prior to the SEC Tourney, which he won. They still fired him early the next year and really set the program back 2 years.

I do not expect BU to make the same mistake.
 
MVC Regular Season Championship.

Everything else will take care of itself if that happens.

If it doesn't happen now, it's never happening in this regime.
 
With the current course the NCAA has regarding "at large" berths to non-BCS schools, we're going to have to win the MVC tournament to even get in the NCAA Tournament. A second or third place finish, even with a solid home record and some quality wins, will not get us in the Big Dance. As such, to make the NCAAs, we have to win the MVC.

My goals for the year:

A 20-win season, without having to use the postseason.

Top 3 finish in the MVC with a championship game appearance at the MVC Tournament.

A NCAA/NIT bid.

How we achieve these goals is a moot point, in my opinion. This will be the apex of what I would want.

What I believe we'll achieve:

A 17/18 win season.

Finish in the upper division of the MVC, possibility of pushing deep in the MVC Tournament.

A post-season bid of any sort.

Is this a failure? I would say no, but there are many here who might.

I will add something, however...Coach Les has to get out of the recruitment of 6' 4" and under guys and start bulking up the team with some guys who can actually play under the basket. Otherwise, we're going to have tremendously hard times in the coming years.
 
Top 2 in the Valley.

My take - We have 3 senior guards, 2 juniors in the front court, and a solid contributor off the bench in DSE. Eastman, from the looks of it, will bring hustle and intensity off the bench. Lemon, if he is as good as advertised, should contribute as well. Sam, Andrew and TB are all potential POY's. We have MK, JP, Davis and AT to back up the front court, hopefully at least one of those can contribute significant, productive minutes. Sam Singh gave his heart to BU, and his knees and shoulder, but we need more production from our backups.

I say Top 2 instead of 3 because even last year with our losses we were in contention for the 3 seed. IMO we need to do better this year. If we don't finish top two this year and this team, I do not know when we will.
 
2010-2011 expectations

2010-2011 expectations

To be considered a successful season, BU should accomplish the following at a minimum, IMO:

1. 20 regular season wins prior to any tournaments.

2. Third or better in the MVC (No ties).

3. Win 14 - lose 2 at home.

4. Win 6 - lose 7 on the road.

5. Win at least one MVC tournament game.

6. Receive a bid to the NIT or NCAA Tourn.

All of the above are based on no major injuries to key players, no academic dismissals, no major "Incidents" causing key player dismissals for more than one game.
 
Minimum standards for success (non-stats):

1) Win 20 games before Arch Madness.

2) Finish in Top 3 of Valley with at least 12 Valley wins.

3) Win all but 2 games at home for the season.

4) NIT or bust! (hey, at least we're making our way back!)

5) Sweep the Redbirds!

I think if we meet #1, 2, & 4, JL's job would be retained!
Less than NIT, maybe time for a change unfortunately. :(
 
Off the top of my head:

1. Have a nearly perfect non-con record. I say nearly because as cool as it would be, I do not see a snowball's chance of BU defeating Duke. On the other hand, if we beat Duke and the Blue Devils experience a down year, then that puts a little less shine on our resume. But I don't have to worry about that yet, since the season has not tipped-off. :razz: With regards to USC, if we beat them and they somehow make a run of it in the Pac-10, that will definitely be a nice boost to the resume.

2. Top three regular season finish, and even if they do not win the regular-season crown or Arch Madness, if they win a good deal of their non-con and conference slate, and depending on how the opponents that they beat do towards the end of the season, an NIT or even an NCAA bid is not far out. Of course, winning the whole thing, as BradleyBrave mentions, will take care of everything. :)

3. Do not get swept by ISU (Red). I'll save the preaching of their schedule since it has been done by their fanbase and others across the Valley are already, but I do not want them to be swept by their opponent for the second consecutive season.
 
1) top 3 finish in the Valley
2) play in the championship game of the tour.
3) no home losses
4) NCAA bid

The reason I have set the bar high is that Warren, Maniscalco and Dunson are seniors and they should not be leaving BU without accomplishing something special during their last season, we have a lot of experience and talent on this team and no reason to think that if things are handled correctly that this could be a special season for this team.
 
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