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TAS Bracketology 2/28

Da Coach said:
Speaking of Oregon State- note how bad the Pac 10 is this year. It is possible, even likely that there will be no team in the Pac 10 with fewer than double digit losses. For a conference that was one of the best for many years, there are only 3 teams above .500, and which appear to have any chance at all of an at-large bid if needed.
http://www.pac-10.org/sports/m-baskbl/pac10-m-baskbl-body.html

2009-10 MEN'S BASKETBALL STANDINGS

Team..................Conf....Pct.....Overall.....Pct.
California.............12-5.. .706......20-9.... .690
Arizona State.......10-6.. .625......20-9.... .690
Washington...........9-7.. .563......19-9.... .679
USC.....................8-8.. .500......16-12.. .571
Arizona.................8-8.. .500......14-14.. .500
UCLA....................8-8.. .500......13-15.. .464
Oregon State.........7-9.. .438......13-15.. .464
Stanford...............7-10. .412......13-16.. .448
Washington State...6-10. .375......16-12.. .571
Oregon.................6-10. .375......14-14.. .500
Click to expand...

Why do I have this sickening feeling though that the NCAA selection committee might try to shoehorn two or three teams into the tournament from this conference? I think two would be the absolute max, but don't be shocked if there is some funny selection from this conference, as their tends to be every year.
 
Right now Cal is the only deserving team and even that is suspect. I'd bet 2 teams make it in Cal and Az State. The SEC is not too much better outside of their top 4 teams but I bet you 6 make it.

KY
MSU
SCU
Vanderbilt
TN
Florida
 
As for California, they'll be in. No Top 50 wins sorta makes me puke, but their computer numbers are very strong.

And let's be frank: If the argument from us, year after year, is that conference champions of mid majors deserve at-large bids because of the value of winning that title.....then doesn't California earn that same right for winning a league that is the equivalent of an upper mid-major?

Assuming Cal punts a game away in the Pac-10 tournament (and they will), it'll be a 2-bid Pac 10.
 
The good news for UI is that they can't absorb any more bad losses. I suppose the regular season game would actually be more important, as avoiding having 14 losses may be more important at this point.

There's going to be a couple teams with quite a pile of losses at the end. And the question will usually come down to, "who can you beat?" Illinois has a few wins to lean on, whether fair or not.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
Assuming Cal punts a game away in the Pac-10 tournament (and they will), it'll be a 2-bid Pac 10.
Click to expand...

I agree completely.

But...

If Cal wins the Pac10 Tourney, then a 2nd team might be left out just cause they don't have a good enough profile. Pac10 could be a 1 bid league. But I expect Cal to get upset setting up a 2-bid league scenario.
 
MacabreMob said:
I agree completely.

But...

If Cal wins the Pac10 Tourney, then a 2nd team might be left out just cause they don't have a good enough profile. Pac10 could be a 1 bid league. But I expect Cal to get upset setting up a 2-bid league scenario.
Click to expand...

There won't be a 2nd team if Cal win that tournament. No chance.
 
Updated Wednesday night

Next 4 in
Louisville
Illinois
San Diego St
Connecticut

Last 4 in
St Mary's
Florida
Rhode Island
Notre Dame

Last 4 out:
UAB
Mississippi St
Dayton
Mississippi

You really don't wanna know what's behind Ole Miss. It might even be Memphis at this point.
 
SFP said:
Right now Cal is the only deserving team and even that is suspect. I'd bet 2 teams make it in Cal and Az State. The SEC is not too much better outside of their top 4 teams but I bet you 6 make it.

KY
MSU
SCU
Vanderbilt
TN
Florida
Click to expand...

Well, maybe the bottom of the SEC is just as bad as the Pac 10, but Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are pretty darn good teams IMO! Have those three teams play each Pac 10 team twice and I bet they each win at least 15 or 16 of those 20.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
As for California, they'll be in. No Top 50 wins sorta makes me puke, but their computer numbers are very strong.

And let's be frank: If the argument from us, year after year, is that conference champions of mid majors deserve at-large bids because of the value of winning that title.....then doesn't California earn that same right for winning a league that is the equivalent of an upper mid-major?

Assuming Cal punts a game away in the Pac-10 tournament (and they will), it'll be a 2-bid Pac 10.
Click to expand...

I agree, but that didn't work for Creighton last year (I know, one of our first place teams made it in last year). And I agree that California deserves to be in the Big Dance based on the same mid-major argument. But watch conference affiliation come into play if California makes it, but Siena or Utah St. don't make it if they lose in their respective conference tournaments.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
The good news for UI is that they can't absorb any more bad losses. I suppose the regular season game would actually be more important, as avoiding having 14 losses may be more important at this point.

There's going to be a couple teams with quite a pile of losses at the end. And the question will usually come down to, "who can you beat?" Illinois has a few wins to lean on, whether fair or not.
Click to expand...

I agree that Illinois is still in as of now. But if they lose at home to Wisconsin this weekend, that's at least a three game losing streak against NCAA Tournament teams, sandwiched around a bad home loss against probably an NIT team in Minnesota. That's the way you impress the tournament selection committee. That's why I think this game against Wisconsin may be a tournament elimination game for Illinois.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
Updated Wednesday night

Next 4 in
Louisville
Illinois
San Diego St
Connecticut

Last 4 in
St Mary's
Florida
Rhode Island
Notre Dame

Last 4 out:
UAB
Mississippi St
Dayton
Mississippi

You really don't wanna know what's behind Ole Miss. It might even be Memphis at this point.
Click to expand...

Well there you go. Illinois has no margin for error if those conference tournament upsets start rolling in! And then there's St. Mary's sitting right on the bubble again!

And I also have to respectively disagree with the U Conn pick. Sitting at 7-10 in their conference gives them no chance at an at-large bid at this point, especially after two straight "suspect" losses.
 
Bravesfan said:
I agree, but that didn't work for Creighton last year (I know, one of our first place teams made it in last year). And I agree that California deserves to be in the Big Dance based on the same mid-major argument. But watch conference affiliation come into play if California makes it, but Siena or Utah St. don't make it if they lose in their respective conference tournaments.
Click to expand...

Siena has the same problem Cal does: no marquee wins to lean on, but the MAAC is worse off than the Pac-10.

Utah St is in a different class and I actually think they're on the brink of being in the tourney no matter what.
 
Bravesfan said:
Well there you go. Illinois has no margin for error if those conference tournament upsets start rolling in! And then there's St. Mary's sitting right on the bubble again!

And I also have to respectively disagree with the U Conn pick. Sitting at 7-10 in their conference gives them no chance at an at-large bid at this point, especially after two straight "suspect" losses.
Click to expand...

UConn makes me puke too, but they still have shown they can win games against top-level teams, something the other bubble teams can't.

I'd also argue 7-10 in the Big East is comparable to 8-8 in the ACC or 9-9 in the Big 10 this year.
 
Bravesfan said:
Well, maybe the bottom of the SEC is just as bad as the Pac 10, but Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are pretty darn good teams IMO! Have those three teams play each Pac 10 team twice and I bet they each win at least 15 or 16 of those 20.
Click to expand...

I'd even throw in MSU into that equation. I'm not comparing the 2 conferences I'm just saying that the SEC is not at all that good this year besides the top 4 schools. Pac 10 is weak period! I'm also hedging that this years bubble teams have the weakest resume in history. Is it parity or mediocrity? Even the top 10 schools are all beatable. Syracuse I believe. the number 1 team in the nation, was not on the pre-season top 25.

I'm betting this will be the most interesting tournament since 2006 and I hope the committee add a few more mid-majors because it is not like the BCS schools are lighting it up.
 
Some readjusting heading into Saturday:

1) Kansas (28-2), Syracuse (28-2), Kentucky (28-2), Duke (25-5)
2) Villanova (24-5), Ohio St (24-7), Kansas St (23-5), Purdue (25-4)
3) New Mexico (28-3), West Virginia (23-6), Temple (25-5), Pittsburgh (23-7)
4) Michigan St (23-7), Vanderbilt (22-6), Tennessee (22-7), BYU (26-4)
5) Maryland (21-7), Georgetown (19-9), Wisconsin (22-7), Gonzaga (24-5)
6) Butler (26-4), Xavier (22-7), Baylor (22-6), Northern Iowa (26-4)
7) Texas A&M (20-8 ), Texas (23-7), Richmond (23-7), California (20-9)
8 )Clemson (21-8 ), Florida St (21-8 ), Wake Forest (18-9), Missouri (22-8 )
9) UNLV (21-7), Marquette (20-9), Oklahoma St (20-9), Old Dominion (23-8 )
10) Virginia Tech (22-7), Utah St (23-6), UTEP (23-5), Georgia Tech (18-10)
11) Louisville (19-11), Illinois (18-12), San Diego St (19-8 ), St Mary's (23-5)
12) Siena (24-6), Connecticut (17-13), Cornell (24-4), Florida (20-10)
13) Rhode Island (21-7), Notre Dame (20-10), Kent St (23-8 ), Murray St (27-4)
14) Oakland (21-8 ), Weber St (17-9), Wofford (22-8 ), Sam Houston St (18-6)
15) UC Santa Barbara (17-9), Coastal Carolina (24-5), Troy (15-11), Stony Brook (20-8 )
16) Morgan St (24-9), Quinnipiac (22-8 ), Lehigh (20-10), East Tennessee St (18-14), Jackson St (17-11)


Oklahoma St
---THE LOCK LINE---
In:
Old Dominion*
Virginia Tech
Utah St*
UTEP*
Georgia Tech

Next 4 in:
Louisville
Illinois
San Diego St
St Mary's

Last 4 in:
Siena*
Connecticut
Florida
Rhode Island
Notre Dame

Last 4 out:
UAB (23-6)
Dayton (19-10)
Arizona St (21-9)
Mississippi St (21-9)

Next 4 out:
Mississippi (20-9)
Memphis (22-8 )
Kent St*
Wichita St (24-8 )
Charlotte (19-10)

On the board yet:
Washington (20-9)
St Louis (18-10)
Murray St*
Seton Hall (17-11)
South Florida (18-11)
Cincinnati (16-13)
Minnesota (17-12)
William & Mary (19-9)

Off the board, safe NIT bets:
Northwestern (19-11)
Tulsa (20-9)
Northeastern (19-11)
Marshall (19-8 )
Illinois St (22-9)
VCU (21-8 )
Arizona (15-14)
Portland (18-9)
New Mexico St (18-10)
Fairfield (20-9)

Notes:

I have no idea what to do with that 4th #1 seed right now. It'll sort itself out by next week, but I don't like Duke in that spot.

The current swelling in the S-curve occurs around the 5 and 6 seeds. Once you get past #27 Richmond, it feels like there's a major natural gap there. 27 teams for 16 protected seeds, if you will. 7 seems low for A&M and Richmond, in particular.

California is a team I can't quite figure out. Factoring in how the committee usually rewards conference champions, I'll bump them to a 7 for now.

Oklahoma St is #35. That's the last lock team, with another major natural gap in my book, dropping down to the bubble teams.

It really feels like ODU, Siena, Utah St, UTEP, and Kent St are making big gains just by staying still. In fact, I think ODU, Utah St, and UTEP can afford one loss. Siena is borderline. Kent probably won't, but we've seen crazier.

I'm going to go ahead and sell out and move up Arizona St a few notches. Same corollary as Cal - if that was a mid major conference in name, this is where ASU would be at, probably.
 
I wanna suggest some Bubble Teams that could squeeze on the At-Large if they don't win the Auto-Bid from their Conf Tournies.

ODU - Colonial in Richmond (home to VCU)
3/7 vs VCU
3/8 TBD

UTEP - ConfUSA in Tulsa (home to Tulsa)
3/10-3/13 vs TBD

Butler - Horizon at Butler
3/9 vs Wright St

Siena - MAAC at Siena
3/7 vs Rider
3/8 TBD

Kent - MAC in Cleveland
3/11-3/13 vs TBD

UNI - MVC in St Louis
3/7 vs Wich St

California - PAC10 in LA
3/10-3/13 vs TBD

Utah St - WAC in Reno (home to Nevada)
3/11-3/13 vs TBD

Gonzaga - WCC in Las Vegas
3/7-3/8 vs TBD

In a normal year, there is usually a couple that lose. For some reason, I think they ALL will take the Auto-Bids. :lol:
 
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