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TAS Bracketology 2009

MacabreMob said:
Yea... it's gonna be a crappy tourney. I will likely not watch after the first couple rounds. Same for the NIT... I think it will get a lot of Auto-Qualifiers and a bunch of BCS schools (along with a couple Mid-Majors getting 5 and 6 seeds).
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The NIT committee could destroy that field.

Georgetown, Notre Dame, and Kentucky are 3 of the 1 seeds already. Michigan probably the 4th. Then Florida, Arizona, Providence and Virginia Tech on the 2 line?

Watch Illinois St not make it.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
The NIT committee could destroy that field.

Georgetown, Notre Dame, and Kentucky are 3 of the 1 seeds already. Michigan probably the 4th. Then Florida, Arizona, Providence and Virginia Tech on the 2 line?

Watch Illinois St not make it.
Click to expand...

I think ISU makes the field but they won't like their seed. They'll have to be on the road.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
The NIT committee could destroy that field.

Georgetown, Notre Dame, and Kentucky are 3 of the 1 seeds already. Michigan probably the 4th. Then Florida, Arizona, Providence and Virginia Tech on the 2 line?

Watch Illinois St not make it.
Click to expand...

Btw TAS, where do you have UAB right now? In the NCAA? Not a top 2 seed in NIT - so worse?
 
MacabreMob said:
Yea, so question is... will they take the road game as a 5 or 6 seed or opt into another tourney with a couple games at home?
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I know this has been asked before, but it still is a little difficult to answer. The NIT represents the top teams that just missed the NCAA, but a CBI, CIT or whatever else gives a team a better shot at making a longer postseason run, though without as much prestige as the NIT (if there is such a thing).

However, with the way things are turning out in the NIT with a bunch of retired ex-basketball coaches and pundits picking the BCS teams in favor of the mid-majors, perhaps the CBI or CIT is the way to go in that it gives mid-majors with strong fan bases a legitimate shot at winning a postseason tournament. And with the quality of teams that participated in the inaugural CBI last year, these newer tournaments may gain a foothold. And even if it means paying money to get some home games, so be it. :)

I'm still a bit skeptical how the CIT will turn out in that some of these same players involved in the NIT are supposed to be in charge of the CIT as well. However, they supposedly will emphasis mid-majors in that tournament. I think the jury will be out until the bracket comes out. Either way though, the CBI and the CIT are probably the first step towards the "segregation" of D1 basketball into two divisions, but hopefully the Valley would be good enough to stay in the "BCS" division if a separation ever took place.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
The Valley will never be on the good side of any D-1 split. We'll be in the lower part of the split.
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Well, there would, I would think be a few non-BCS conferences and/or teams that would be allocated to the "good" side of the split. I would think the Valley would at least be considered.

Then again, the powers that be might not care. Hopefully it won't come down to that though.
 
Bravesfan said:
Well, there would, I would think be a few non-BCS conferences and/or teams that would be allocated to the "good" side of the split. I would think the Valley would at least be considered.

Then again, the powers that be might not care. Hopefully it won't come down to that though.
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The powers that care, care about money.

A split isn't happening because they want to only play "good teams". A split will happen because they don't want to share the big money with the small schools.

No matter how good the Valley is, we're a league in smaller-market cities, and we'll never have the revenue pull of a current BCS league. Therefore, we are separated into the lower portion because of our revenue. It'll have nothing to do with how good the conference is.


The non BCS conferences that would make the jump to the top level would be the biggest moneymakers - A-10, MWC. Maybe WAC. Maybe CUSA. That's it.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
The powers that care, care about money.

A split isn't happening because they want to only play "good teams". A split will happen because they don't want to share the big money with the small schools.

No matter how good the Valley is, we're a league in smaller-market cities, and we'll never have the revenue pull of a current BCS league. Therefore, we are separated into the lower portion because of our revenue. It'll have nothing to do with how good the conference is.


The non BCS conferences that would make the jump to the top level would be the biggest moneymakers - A-10, MWC. Maybe WAC. Maybe CUSA. That's it.
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Well that's a shame, but you are probably right. They might "pick and choose" a couple of other teams like Gonzaga and maybe a George Mason, Davidson and even a Creighton, but the rest of us would be SOL.
 
Bravesfan said:
Well that's a shame, but you are probably right. They might "pick and choose" a couple of other teams like Gonzaga and maybe a George Mason, Davidson and even a Creighton, but the rest of us would be SOL.
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They wouldn't even pick Creighton. Gonzaga would be the only one out of that list.

Basically, cinderallas aren't allowed to exist in their world. Fun times we live in.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
They wouldn't even pick Creighton. Gonzaga would be the only one out of that list.

Basically, cinderallas aren't allowed to exist in their world. Fun times we live in.
Click to expand...

They certainly are "fun" times. What I don't get though is that cinderallas make the tournament plenty of money, even in "their" world! Why would they even think of messing up a good thing?

I guess they have the same people running the NCAA that are running our government. That's the only answer to my own question that I can come up with! :)
 
Bravesfan said:
They certainly are "fun" times. What I don't get though is that cinderallas make the tournament plenty of money, even in "their" world! Why would they even think of messing up a good thing?

I guess they have the same people running the NCAA that are running our government. That's the only answer to my own question that I can come up with! :)
Click to expand...


For each game a team plays in the NCAA tournament, they get a "share" (or some similar term used to represent it). Basically, the more games you play, the more money your team and league makes.

More bids for more teams and leagues means less and less overall money for each league, as the shares split more and more.

BCS thinking is that if you get rid of all the mid majors, you're down to teams from 6 conferences (instead of 31) that share the revenue.

The money BCS people save by only sharing between the Big 6 compensates for any potential difference in revenue by having a few people not watch because there aren't cinderallas. The casual fan would still tune in.


So, in their world, getting rid of mid majors makes them more money. And ruins the sport. But they get more money. That's what matters.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
For each game a team plays in the NCAA tournament, they get a "share" (or some similar term used to represent it). Basically, the more games you play, the more money your team and league makes.

More bids for more teams and leagues means less and less overall money for each league, as the shares split more and more.

BCS thinking is that if you get rid of all the mid majors, you're down to teams from 6 conferences (instead of 31) that share the revenue.

The money BCS people save by only sharing between the Big 6 compensates for any potential difference in revenue by having a few people not watch because there aren't cinderallas. The casual fan would still tune in.


So, in their world, getting rid of mid majors makes them more money. And ruins the sport. But they get more money. That's what matters.
Click to expand...

Yeah, well nothing new here. Kind of sounds like the radio and tv industries as well. Reality tv and 800 "morning zoo" shows make the most money, so that's what you get.

Seeing Duke, North Carolina and U Conn in the tourney will be extremely boring, but that will draw the most money as well. But I'll follow mid-major basketball first and foremost if that happens!
 
EAST Regional

@Philadelphia
1) Connecticut (27-2) vs. 16) Radford (20-7)
8) Dayton (24-6) vs. 9) Oklahoma St (20-9)

@Boise
4) Clemson (23-6) vs. 13) Davidson (24-6)
5) Purdue (22-8 ) vs. 12) Western Kentucky (20-8 )

@KansasCity
3) Kansas (24-6) vs. 14) North Dakota St (21-6)
6) Utah (20-8 ) vs. 11) St Mary's (22-5)

@Miami
2) Memphis (27-3) vs. 15) Tennessee-Martin (20-8 )
7) Syracuse (21-8 ) vs. 10) Penn St (21-9)


WEST Regional

@KansasCity
1) Oklahoma (26-4) vs. 16) CS-Northridge (14-12)
8) BYU (22-6) vs. 9) Ohio St (19-9)

@Portland
4) Washington (22-7) vs. 13) Northern Iowa (19-10)
5) Florida St (22-8 ) vs. 12) Providence (18-12)

@Miami
3) Wake Forest (23-5) vs. 14) Binghamton (19-8 )
6) LSU (25-5) vs. 11) Siena (23-7)

@Dayton
2) Louisville (24-5) vs. 15) Robert Morris (22-10)
7) Arizona St (21-8 ) vs. 10) Wisconsin (17-11)


MIDWEST Regional

@Dayton
1) Pittsburgh (26-3) vs. 16) Jacksonville (17-12)/Alabama St (16-9)
8) Texas (20-9) vs. 9) Boston College (20-10)

@Minneapolis
4) Xavier (24-5) vs. 13) Miami OH (17-11)
5) Illinois (23-8 ) vs. 12) New Mexico (20-10)

@Boise
3) Missouri (24-5) vs. 14) Weber St (20-8 )
6) Marquette (23-7) vs. 11) Michigan (17-12)

@Greensboro
2) Duke (25-5) vs. 15) Cornell (17-9)
7) Butler (24-4) vs. 10) Creighton (25-6)


SOUTH Regional

@Greensboro
1) North Carolina (25-3) vs. 16) Morgan St (19-11)
8) West Virginia (21-9) vs. 9) Minnesota (20-8 )

@Portland
4) UCLA (23-7) vs. 13) VCU (21-9)
5) Gonzaga (23-5) vs. 12) Utah St (25-4)

@Philadelphia
3) Villanova (25-6) vs. 14) American (22-7)
6) California (22-8 ) vs. 11) Texas A&M (21-8 )

@Minneapolis
2) Michigan St (24-5) vs. 15) Stephen F Austin (16-7)
7) Tennessee (19-10) vs. 10) UNLV (20-8 )



Here's the breakdown you need to know:

Teams recently lockboxing their way in the field:
Dayton
BYU
West Virginia
Arizona St
Texas
Boston College

Teams that are OK - for now:
Minnesota
Ohio St
Oklahoma St
Wisconsin

Next 4 in:
Creighton
UNLV
Penn St
Texas A&M

Last 4 in:
Siena (in as autobid)
St Mary's (I'm going to go ahead and assume Mills is a go)
New Mexico
Providence
Davidson (in as autobid)
Michigan

Last 4 out:
Maryland (18-11) (suck it, Gary Williams)
Arizona (18-12)
South Carolina (20-8 )
Rhode Island (22-8 )

Next 4 out:
Virginia Tech (17-12)
San Diego St (18-8 )
Kentucky (19-11)
Utah St (currently in as autobid)
Miami (16-11)

Other teams within reasonable bubble range:
Florida (21-9), Northwestern (17-11), Cincinnati (17-12)

I'll listen if they run out to their conference final game, but you're probably not getting it anyways:
Auburn (19-10), Kansas St (19-10)


Everyone else is done.
 
NIT projections? Sure.

EAST
1) Maryland (18-11) vs. 8) Vanderbilt (18-11)
4) Notre Dame (15-13) vs. 5) Washington St (16-13)
3) Northwestern (17-11) vs. 6) Wisconsin-Green Bay (21-8)
2) Florida (21-9) vs. 7) Baylor (16-12)


SOUTH
1) South Carolina (20-8) vs. 8) Duquense (18-10)
4) Georgetown (15-13) vs. 5) Tulsa (20-9)
3) Kansas St (19-10) vs. 6) Illinois St (22-8)
2) Virginia Tech (17-12) vs. 7) Northeastern (18-11)


MIDWEST
1) Rhode Island (22-8) vs. 8) Mississippi St (17-12)
4) USC (17-12) vs. 5) Niagara (24-7)
3) Miami (16-11) vs. 6) George Mason (20-9)
2) Kentucky (19-11) vs. 7) Nebraska (17-11)


WEST
1) Arizona (18-12) vs. 8) Houston (18-10)
4) Auburn (19-10) vs. 5) UAB (20-10)
3) Cincinnati (17-12) vs. 6) Temple (18-11)
2) San Diego St (18-8) vs. 7) Nevada (17-11)
 
Mac is going to have fun with Butler vs. Creighton and Utah vs. St Mary's. MID MAJOR CORRUPTION! :lol:

If it wasn't for autobids in the NIT, I could say Bradley could sneak in there, but spots will disappear so I don't see it happening. Note that I made special provisions to make sure Georgetown and ND got home games and Niagara got shipped cross country.



As for the more important bracket.

I don't like 8 Big 10 teams in there, and frankly, I should have Maryland in place of Michigan, but it's more fun the way it is. :)

2 SEC teams? South Carolina's profile is amazingly vapid upon second check. This is the new scenario I'm rooting for. A 2-bid SEC.

It's looking more and more like the MWC will find a 4th team. There's enough wiggle room for them to squeeze another one out.

If Mills shows he's at full strength, and they win their semifinal game, they'll be fine I think.

Notice that we found 6 at-large bids for the non-BCS conferences right now. 3 MWC, 1 MVC, 1 A-10, 1 WCC. We're back within a reasonable distribution compared to previous years.
 
Here's a placeholder view at the bubble:

Recent locks:
BYU
Dayton
Boston College
West Virginia
Texas

12 BUBBLE SPOTS

In order:
Texas A&M
Ohio St
Wisconsin
New Mexico
St Mary's
Michigan
Oklahoma St
Creighton
Siena (in as autobid right now)
Arizona
Davidson (in as autobid right now)
UNLV
San Diego St
Minnesota
---cutline---
Providence
Penn St
South Carolina
Virginia Tech
Utah St (in as autobid right now)
Maryland
Florida
Miami
Rhode Island
Northwestern
Auburn
Kansas St
Kentucky
Northern Iowa

The next tier:
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Nebraska
Temple
Illinois St
Niagara
George Mason
UAB
Tulsa
Mississippi St
USC
 
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