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TAS Bracketology 2/28

Lockboxing today:
Georgia Tech
Utah St

Next 2 in:
Illinois
San Diego St

Last 4 in:
Virginia Tech
Rhode Island
Mississippi St
Florida

Last 4 out:
Wichita St
Washington
UAB
Mississippi

Next 4 out:
Minnesota
Dayton
Arizona St
Seton Hall

The dream is dead:
Kent St
Memphis
South Florida
St Louis
William & Mary

The good news is seeing where Wichita St ended up the day at. And you can check the progression throughout the day - I didn't elevate them out of bias.

The problem is everyone ahead of them is going to stay ahead of them. MSU isn't going to drop by losing to Vandy. Florida is done. URI won't be punished for losing to Temple. VT is done. UI won't drop by losing to OSU. SDSU won't drop either.

By that same token, UAB, Ole Miss, Dayton, ASU, Seton Hall are done. Any game U-Dub loses will cost them on the board, so if they elevate, it's because they autobid. I also don't think a win over Purdue elevates Minny over Florida.

So, um what I'm saying is this:


What you see right now is basically what I'm going to project for Sunday.
 
Future Walk-On said:
Illinois is in....not NEXT in........unless i am reading it wrong (i never understand the in out last lingo)
Click to expand...

I'm leaving them on the list because:

Washington can win the Pac 10, taking one bubble spot away
Mississippi St can win the SEC, taking one bubble spot away
Minnesota can win the Big 10, taking one bubble spot away
Utah St can lose the WAC, leaving the WAC as a 2 bid conference instead of 1
Rhode Island can win the A-10, jumping past UI in pecking order by default
San Diego St can win the MWC, jumping past UI in pecking order by default
UI can lose to Ohio St, staying neutral

That's 6 teams that can leapfrog Illinois by getting the autobid or being eligible for the autobid, through no fault of UI. That's why they stay on the board for now.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
I'm leaving them on the list because:

Washington can win the Pac 10, taking one bubble spot away
Mississippi St can win the SEC, taking one bubble spot away
Minnesota can win the Big 10, taking one bubble spot away
Utah St can lose the WAC, leaving the WAC as a 2 bid conference instead of 1
Rhode Island can win the A-10, jumping past UI in pecking order by default
San Diego St can win the MWC, jumping past UI in pecking order by default
UI can lose to Ohio St, staying neutral

That's 6 teams that can leapfrog Illinois by getting the autobid or being eligible for the autobid, through no fault of UI. That's why they stay on the board for now.
Click to expand...


Houston can steal a bid as well.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
I'm leaving them on the list because:

Washington can win the Pac 10, taking one bubble spot away
Mississippi St can win the SEC, taking one bubble spot away
Minnesota can win the Big 10, taking one bubble spot away
Utah St can lose the WAC, leaving the WAC as a 2 bid conference instead of 1
Rhode Island can win the A-10, jumping past UI in pecking order by default
San Diego St can win the MWC, jumping past UI in pecking order by default
UI can lose to Ohio St, staying neutral

That's 6 teams that can leapfrog Illinois by getting the autobid or being eligible for the autobid, through no fault of UI. That's why they stay on the board for now.
Click to expand...

Rhode Island is most likely out now after getting clocked by Temple. And I think San Diego St is in regardless of what happens tonight. I also think Washington may be in anyway just because "it's the Pac-10". But the "big three" games involve Miss. St., Minnesota and New Mexico St. For those bubble teams out there that can't do anything more, they need to hope all three of those teams today!
 
The bubble, it ebbs and flows.

My inkling is that U-Dub is NOT in.

I'm rooting for Purdue, because Minny is going to be a pretty tough call if they win this game.

Bye, URI.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
The bubble, it ebbs and flows.

My inkling is that U-Dub is NOT in.

I'm rooting for Purdue, because Minny is going to be a pretty tough call if they win this game.

Bye, URI.
Click to expand...

I hope U-Dub is not in either (Washington I'm assuming you are talking about). The Pac-10 really does not deserve more than one bid IMO. But if that happens, will the extra spots go to mid-majors or to teams like Miss St. and Minnesota? We'll find out soon, but like I said, we have at least secured 7 at-large bids for non-BCS teams which represents and increase of 3 from last year. Not a bad jump, and hopefully there will be room for one or two more.
 
Bravesfan said:
I hope U-Dub is not in either (Washington I'm assuming you are talking about). The Pac-10 really does not deserve more than one bid IMO. But if that happens, will the extra spots go to mid-majors or to teams like Miss St. and Minnesota? We'll find out soon, but like I said, we have at least secured 7 at-large bids for non-BCS teams which represents and increase of 3 from last year. Not a bad jump, and hopefully there will be room for one or two more.
Click to expand...

The problem is all the mid majors on the bubble decided to crap their pants this year.
 
TAS, there is no way the Illini are in. I've never seen a 75 RPI team who;s lost 6 of 8 down the stretch get so much love in my life. mis st and minny both have leapfrogged illini. 14 losses is too many..they are done..book it.
 
CBS is projecting Illinois, Minnesota, UTEP and Virginia Tech as the last four in, with the loser of the Pac-10 championship game, Seton Hall, Mississippi St. and Mississippi as the first four out.

Now with all of the upsets going on today I was projecting 7 teams out of the ACC, 8 out of the Big East, 7 out of the Big 12, 6 out of the Big Ten, 2 out of the Pac Ten and 4 out of the SEC for a total of 34 teams. Adding in the 25 other auto-bids, that would leave 6 at-larges from non-BCS conferences. Earlier today though I had 7, with 3 at-large bids from the MWC, 2 from the A-10, and 1 each from the WCC and CUSA. Obviously either one of those teams won't make it, or one BCS team of the 34 won't make it, which does not bode well for Illinois at all.

However when taking into consideration CBS's projections, they appear to only have 31 teams out of the BCS contigent, which leads me to wonder which additional two mid-majors will be chosen (UTEP not included). Or are there two other BCS teams I'm missing. I'm guessing they have Florida in for sure, and maybe even S. Florida? Who knows, but I need to check into CBS's website to see who. But I would have a tough time taking a ninth team out of the Big East!
 
The mitigating factor is this:

Compare Illinois' wins vs. the other best wins of the other bubble teams. In the end, the committee likes to take the teams with the best wins, and UI has that.
 
you laso have to consider they will have at least 3 more losses than any other bubble squad. 5 good wins does not a season make...they are now 5-9 against top 100 and would be highest rpi team ever taken if selected. Too many others(miss st, ga tech, houston) did more this weekend. losing 6 of 8 regardless of competition can't be ignored. big ten's not getting 6 and minny just ate up the 5th bid. WI is not mich st or purdue, and that one road win at WI won't be enough when there are 14 L's on the card.
 
If Utah St wins tonight - they will bounce Vandy out of the Top 25 of the RPI. That would leave UIUC with only 2 wins of teams in the Top 25 RPI (both to Wisky).

If Utah St loses tonight - it squeezes the bubble, maybe bursting someone on the edge... like UIUC.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
Well, in the weakest bubble year of all time, it would only make sense for the worst RPI ever for an at-large team to get in, right? ;)
Click to expand...

Yes. ;)

Under the new RPI (giving more weight for road wins, etc), the lowest at-large bids are: #62 Arizona (2009), #62 Iowa St and #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).

Under the old RPI (used up intil 2004), the lowest at-large bids are: #74 New Mexico (1999) and #70 Air Force (2004).

Projected RPI for UIUC for this season: 75.

:lol:
 
I'm keeping abreast of Lunardi's changes, and I swear, he's the one guy who always ignores the old mantra. "Teams get bids, not conferences". He is a direct violater of that, c'mon.


The good news is he finally agrees with me that Florida is in trouble.
 
MacabreMob said:
If Utah St wins tonight - they will bounce Vandy out of the Top 25 of the RPI. That would leave UIUC with only 2 wins of teams in the Top 25 RPI (both to Wisky).

If Utah St loses tonight - it squeezes the bubble, maybe bursting someone on the edge... like UIUC.
Click to expand...

And I know that hurts UI, but with the use of team sheets in the room, they can look at the exact rankings of each team they played, so it's not as critical for them to stay in the top 25.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
I'm keeping abreast of Lunardi's changes, and I swear, he's the one guy who always ignores the old mantra. "Teams get bids, not conferences". He is a direct violater of that, c'mon.


The good news is he finally agrees with me that Florida is in trouble.
Click to expand...

Yea - I thought I heard Lunardi now has UIUC out.
 
TheAsianSensation said:
And I know that hurts UI, but with the use of team sheets in the room, they can look at the exact rankings of each team they played, so it's not as critical for them to stay in the top 25.
Click to expand...

Honestly - I think the NCAA committee has the field set with a couple contingency plans set up in case Wash wins, Miss St wins, NM St wins, and Minny wins.

With that in mind - I don't think they'll actually see UIUC's final record against the top 25 in the RPI. :lol:
 
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